THE STRIKER: previews Thursday’s Premier League action between EVERTON v ASTON VILLA, LEICESTER v SHEFFIELD UNITED, CRYSTAL PALACE v MAN U and SOUTHAMPTON v BRIGHTON – get the recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

EVERTON V ASTON VILLA

6pm It’s a massive two days at the bottom of the table as Aston Villa travel to Everton to kick off the Thursday night action and West Ham host Watford tomorrow night. If Villa can win here the pressure will really go on West Ham and Watford tomorrow night as the table will look very different if there’s a winner and loser there. Onto tonight, and Villa come here off the back of a massive 2-0 win over Crystal Palace while Everton were hammered by Wolves. That’s three games without a win for Everton, and how Villa would dearly love to make it four.

Given the league position of Villa, it’s unwise to rely on them however Everton have been out of form lately. Their xG numbers don’t paint a good picture in their most recent games after showing promising numbers this season. They’ve given up an xG of 3.19 and 2.3 in their last two games, while they only created an xG of 0.54 against Spurs, were lucky to beat Leicester here and only created 0.81 against the struggling Norwich. A case can be made here to say that Everton are far too short at 2.12, however as Villa have been struggling this season stakes should be kept low.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Everton at 2.12 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQeveast

MATCH STATS

  • Everton have won their last three home league games against Aston Villa, last winning more consecutively against them at Goodison Park between 1964-1975 (5).
  • Aston Villa are looking to secure their first league double over Everton since 2000-01, following their 2-0 win at Villa Park in August.
  • Everton vs Aston Villa is the most played fixture in English top-flight history, with the Villans winning 74 of the 203 previous meetings to Everton’s 76 (53 draws).
  • Everton vs Aston Villa will be the seventh Premier League fixture to have been played on all seven days of the week. Meanwhile, a win for the Villans will see them become the second team to beat an opponent on every day of the week in the competition (after Manchester United against Aston Villa).
  • Everton are unbeaten in 10 Premier League home games (W5 D5); only Liverpool (58) are on a longer current such run, while it’s the Toffees’ longest run without defeat at Goodison Park since December 2016 (11).
  • Aston Villa’s win against Crystal Palace last time out ended a run of 10 Premier League games without a win; they’ve not won consecutive league games since October.
  • Aston Villa are the only side without an away clean sheet in the Premier League this season. Overall, they’ve conceded in each of their last 24 Premier League away games – only five clubs have had a longer such run in the competition’s history.
  • Aston Villa managed nine shots on target in their 2-0 win against Crystal Palace – more than they’d mustered in their previous four Premier League games combined (7).
  • Aston Villa have faced 582 shots in the Premier League this season, 49 more than any other side. However, since restart the Villans are facing 10.7 shots per game in the Premier League, compared to 18.1 before the enforced break this season.
  • Before the enforced break, Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin had scored eight goals in 11 Premier League games. He’s yet to find the net in six games since the restart, despite having more shots than any other Everton player (16).

LEICESTER V SHEFFIELD UNITED

6pm Villa have a massive game tonight, but this fixture is huge for both sides. Manchester United threw away the chance to go two points ahead of Leicester when conceding a very late goal against Southampton on Monday night, and now Leicester have a chance to go three points clear and put all the pressure back on United later. Sheffield United have recorded back-to-back wins after a poor start post lockdown, and they are right back in the mix to finish sixth. There’s a lot to play for here.

I have to say, I can’t get away from the Leicester lay here. Apart from their 3-0 win against Crystal Palace they have been very poor since returning from lockdown. Their collapse in the second half against Bournemouth had to be seen to be believed and they have absolutely no momentum heading into the final games. Sheffield United created an xG of 2.56 against Chelsea, grinding out a tight game with Wolves and beat Spurs too recently (to start their run). I can’t have Leicester at 2.08 here, and that has to be the lay of the day.

The Striker Says:
Four points lay (liability) Leicester at 2.08 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQleishe

MATCH STATS

  • This is the first time Leicester are hosting Sheffield United in a league match since November 2010 (2-2 in the Championship), and the first time in a top-flight match since February 1976 (1-1).
  • Sheffield United haven’t lost both league matches in a season against Leicester since 1928-29 in the top-flight, with this the 38th different campaign they’ve faced them in since then.
  • Since the start of February, Leicester have won just two of their 11 Premier League games (D5 L4), however both of those victories have come at the King Power Stadium (vs Aston Villa and Crystal Palace).
  • Having failed to win any of their first three Premier League matches back after the restart (D1 L2), Sheffield United have gone unbeaten in their last four (W3 D1) and will be aiming to pick up three consecutive victories in the competition for the first time since December.
  • Leicester will be aiming to keep four consecutive home clean sheets in the Premier League for the first time since February 2016, in their title winning campaign under Claudio Ranieri (a run of five).
  • With 54 points from their opening 35 games this season, only four newly promoted sides have won more points than Sheffield United at this stage of Premier League campaign, with Ipswich in 2000-01 the last to do so (62 points).
  • Thursday remains the only day of the week that Leicester have failed to win a Premier League game (D3 L2), with their last top-flight victory on this day coming back in December 1985 (3-1 versus Aston Villa).
  • Sheffield United have conceded just five goals from set piece situations in the Premier League this season, the fewest in the division and two less than Liverpool (7).
  • Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has scored 23 Premier League goals this season, only netting more in a single campaign in the competition in the Foxes title winning season of 2015-16 (24 goals).
  • Sheffield United’s David McGoldrick scored his first Premier League goals last time out against Chelsea (his 26th appearance in the competition) – the Republic of Ireland forward will be looking to score in consecutive league games for the first time since January 2019 in the Championship (a run of four).

CRYSTAL PALACE V MANCHESTER UNITED

8.15pm Manchester United threw away a very strong position in the race for a Top Four finish on Monday night, and now the pressure is all on them. They have gone from ahead of the pack to chasing again. Conceding after 95 minutes would have been a massive blow, but they don’t have time to kick themselves about it as they have to bounce back and win here. The good news for them is they play a Palace side who have lost their last five fixtures.

We landed our Both Teams To Score bet on Monday night with Manchester United, and I feel we can land the same bet here. It’s currently 2.24 which looks far too big. Palace have been losing games, but they have also been creating chances. They have nothing to play for so there is no reason why they are going to sit back for 90 minutes. In their last four games, they have created xG’s of 1.02, 1.62, 0.76 and 1.49. I feel they can score here, in what should be a United win; however 1.37 looks a little short!

The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 2.24 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQcrymun

MATCH STATS

  • Crystal Palace’s 2-1 win at Old Trafford in August ended a run of 22 top-flight games without a win against Man Utd – they’re looking to complete their first ever league double over the Red Devils.
  • Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 11 away league games against Crystal Palace (W8 D3), since a 0-3 loss in May 1991 courtesy of goals from Ian Wright and John Salako (2).
  • Crystal Palace have lost each of their last five Premier League games. They last lost six in a row in September 2017 (8), while manager Roy Hodgson hasn’t lost six in a row in the competition since his last three with Blackburn in November 1998 and his first three with Fulham in January 2008.
  • Manchester United are unbeaten in five Premier League away games (W3 D2), winning each of the last two by a 3-0 scoreline. Indeed, just two of the Red Devils’ previous 52 away league games had been won by a margin of 3+ goals.
  • Man Utd have won just one of their last five Premier League games in London (D1 L3), winning 2-0 at Chelsea in February.
  • Manchester United have won all three of their midweek games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) since the restart, all of them by a 3-0 scoreline (vs Sheffield United, Brighton and Aston Villa).
  • Since the restart, only bottom two clubs Norwich (1.6%) and Aston Villa (5.2%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Crystal Palace in the Premier League (7.1%), with the Eagles netting just four of their 56 shots.
  • Crystal Palace remain the only Premier League side yet to score more than twice in a single match this season. Meanwhile, since the restart the Eagles are conceding double the number of league goals-per-game (2.2) than they were before the enforced break (1.1).
  • Crystal Palace have won seven of their nine Premier League games in which Jordan Ayew has scored this season, drawing the other two. Their record when he doesn’t score is W4 D7 L15 this season.
  • Bruno Fernandes has been involved in six goals in his last four Premier League away games (5 goals, 1 assist). He could become the first Man Utd player to score in five consecutive away games in the competition since Zlatan Ibrahimovic (January 2017), and the fourth to do so overall for the Red Devils, after Ruud van Nistelrooy (twice) and Robin van Persie.

SOUTHAMPTON V BRIGHTON

8.15pm This is an interesting fixture! Southampton are in good form at the moment and played very well against Manchester United on Monday night. That game came away from home though and they have been doing well away from home all season. Only Norwich have worse home form though and Brighton haven’t been playing too badly lately. They got hammered by Manchester City at the weekend, but that happens to most teams. Before that, they beat Liverpool on xG 2.88 to 2.68, although they lost the game.

Southampton may have beaten Manchester City in their last home game here but that was a total shock. City created an xG of 3.53, they just couldn’t score. Brighton aren’t exactly a side that you can rely on and their position in the table reflects that, however Southampton aren’t a good side at home and I’m happy to lay them for a very small stake here at 2.32. I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Southampton at 2.32 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQsoubri

MATCH STATS

  • Southampton are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League meetings with Brighton (W2 D3). They’ve faced the Seagulls without defeat more than they have any other side in the competition.
  • Brighton have won just one of their six away league games against Southampton at St Mary’s Stadium (D3 L2), winning 3-1 in League One in November 2009.
  • Southampton have lost four of their last six Premier League home games (W2). However, they beat Manchester City 1-0 last time out at St Mary’s, and are looking to pick up back-to-back home league wins for the first time since December.
  • Southampton have won four of their six midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League matches this season. However, they haven’t won either such match since the restart (D1 L1).
  • Brighton have won just two of their 21 midweek Premier League matches (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), beating Crystal Palace 3-1 in December 2018, and winning 2-1 at Arsenal earlier this season (D7 L12).
  • Brighton have conceded 3+ goals in three of their last four Premier League matches, including a 0-5 defeat last time out against Man City. They’d only conceded 3+ goals in three of their previous 27 league games.
  • Brighton are unbeaten in their last five Premier League away games (W1 D4), keeping a clean sheet in each of their last three. No side is on a longer current unbeaten run on the road in the competition, while the Seagulls are looking to pick up consecutive away wins for the first time since November 2017.
  • 31% of Brighton’s Premier League goals this season have come from crosses (11/36) – no side has scored a higher ratio so far in 2019-20 (level with Burnley).
  • Three of Brighton’s four Premier League goals against Southampton have been scored by Glenn Murray.
  • After scoring in seven of his first 11 home league matches this season, Southampton’s Danny Ings has netted in just one of his last six at St Mary’s Stadium.

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