THURSDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews WEST HAM v BOURNEMOUTH and WOLVES v MANCHESTER UNITED both including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WEST HAM V BOURNEMOUTH
7.30pm A new month begins on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with two cracking Premier League fixtures on Thursday night! We have two very open betting heats here and obviously two very interesting games. We start the evening with West Ham hosting Bournemouth, and I’m sure we’ll have some big opinions either side of the market on this one. West Ham are the favourites at 2.58 with Bournemouth 2.8 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. Although West Ham started this midweek round of fixtures sitting up in sixth place, anyone who looks at the xG figures from the Premier League will see some major red flags. West Ham’s average xG conceded is a whopping 1.77 which is the third worst defensive figure in the Premier League. Their average xG created is only 1.14 too, and they have been massively over-performing in all areas of the pitch. Their actual goals scored average is 1.67 which is a huge difference, and they haven’t been conceding the goals they should be either – they are the biggest over-performing side in the Premier League this season. Obviously they deserve credit; they have grinded out results when conceding plenty of chances and they are scoring from all angles, but eventually sides will start taking their chances against them.
Bournemouth have been conceding a lot of chances too, but just judging the sides on performing levels they have been the better side. They are creating more and conceding less than West Ham, but they have had the opposite this season. Their average xG conceded is 1.58 which is still poor, the fifth worst in the Premier League, but their actual goals conceded average works out at 1.95. Sloppy is probably the best term to describe Bournemouth at the back. They went on a superb run recently winning six of seven games their only draw coming against Aston Villa. Since then they have bumped into Spurs and Liverpool however, but they did score five goals in the FA Cup at the weekend. Although we have a very open market, I would actually have it even more open – I would have West Ham a little bigger than 2.58 and the draw along with Bournemouth a little shorter. However, we have two sides here who are very poor at the back and Over 2.5 goals looks a cracking position at 1.69 in what should be an open game.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuBou
WOLVES V MANCHESTER UNITED
8.15pm We finish Thursday night with Wolves hosting Manchester United, and we have another very open market here. We basically have the same market as the game above, except this time the favourite is the away side. Manchester United are trading 2.58 with Wolves 2.82 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. Both clubs were in action in the FA Cup on Sunday, and we saw some horrible scenes between West Brom and Wolves with crowd trouble. Wolves won 2-0 in the end while Manchester United ran out 4-2 winners against Newport County. United were exceptionally short to win there, trading around 1.11 but after taking a 2-0 lead Newport got things back to 2-2 and it could have got embarrassing for United. That’s definitely been a theme for United this season; they haven’t been beating sides they should be comfortably. It’s always been plenty of stress and they’ve conceded a lot of goals this season. Their average xG conceded this season is a very high 1.55 and their average xG created is under that at 1.46. That’s basically mid-table form and it’s no surprise that they sit down in mid-table, and also it’s a reflection of the times that they come into this game trading “as high” as 2.58.
Despite that price feeling high historically, it’s still not an appealing bet in my opinion. United have had too many issues this season to trust them yet away from home, even against a poor side like Wolves. There’s actually only three points between the sides, but that is because Wolves are massively over-performing in front of goal. Their average xG created is only 1.12 which is the fifth worst attacking figure this season but their actual goals scored is 1.48 which is their conceded figure too. Eventually they are going to stop scoring from difficult angles and then they could start to struggle. We have two pretty average sides here, and it’s hard to have a confident opinion in the goals market because both sides have had issues at the back but aren’t fantastic going forward. I feel the 2.58 on United is a little short, and that is making the draw offer some value at 3.7. We should have a very close game here – you wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 or 3-3 – it’s that type of game!
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolMan
