THURSDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Thursday’s Premier League games between EVERTON v CRYSTAL PALACE, ASTON VILLA v BURNLEY and CHELSEA v LEICESTER all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
EVERTON V CRYSTAL PALACE
7.45pm We have a massive night in the Premier League on Thursday! Leeds fans will be hiding behind their sofa’s tonight with Everton and Burnley both in action as we play the final games in hand before the final day on Sunday. We have three fixtures to enjoy on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and we start the evening with Everton hosting Crystal Palace. Everton had a setback at the weekend when losing 3-2 in dramatic fashion to Brentford. After taking an early lead they then lost a man, but after getting pegged back to 1-1 they went ahead again just before half-time. The extra man told for Brentford in the second half though, and they scored two quick goals to win the game 3-2. Despite that loss Everton are still in a reasonably good position – they are two points ahead of Burnley before tonight, and even if Everton lose tonight and Burnley win, Everton will still be one point ahead of Leeds going into the final day. I called it a reasonably good position though, because Everton are away to Arsenal on Sunday which, even though Arsenal have thrown away their strong position in the Top Four race, is still a very tough fixture for Everton.
I was very surprised by the odds here when I clicked into the market. I expected to see Everton as favourites because they “need to win” and they have home advantage, but I didn’t expect them to be trading odds on! For me they just haven’t been good enough to justify those odds, and they are a cracking lay from a value point of view at 1.97. They were trading 2.18 before kick off against Brentford at the weekend and we landed a very nice Max Bet lay – I feel we can land the same bet here, this time at the better price of odds on too. Crystal Palace have been playing some very good football recently. They didn’t get the win last weekend against Aston Villa, but once again they created a better xG figure. I don’t doubt that Palace will create more than Everton here – the Palace xG figures have been quite impressive and they have been able to grind out away wins too. They don’t need to win for us here however as we have the draw on side too with the Everton lay – I am very surprised to see the home side odds on here. The lay jumps off the page as the best bet of the evening.
The Striker Says:
Five points lay (liability) Everton to beat Crystal Palace at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveCry
MATCH STATS
● Everton have only lost one of their last 14 Premier League games against Crystal Palace (W6 D7), though it did come in the reverse fixture in December this season.
● In what is the 22nd different league campaign in which they’ve met, Crystal Palace are looking to complete the double over Everton for the very first time.
● Crystal Palace have beaten Everton twice this season, once in the Premier League and once in the FA Cup. As a top-flight side, the Eagles have only twice before beaten a side three teams in the same campaign – Charlton Athletic in 1989-90, and Stoke City in 2015-16.
● Everton have won just 25% of their Premier League games on Thursdays (3/12), their lowest win rate on a single day of the week. However, the Toffees are unbeaten in their last seven such games (W3 D4) since a 2-0 loss at Hull in January 2015.
● Crystal Palace have won their final away game in just three of their 12 Premier League seasons (D2 L7). Two of these were against teams who were relegated (2018-19 v Cardiff, 2017-18 v Stoke), and the other was on Merseyside (2014-15 v Liverpool).
● Everton have conceded 59 goals in the Premier League this season, only in 1993-94 (63) have they ever shipped more. Meanwhile, in a 20-team season, they’ve only shipped more in 1905-06 (66) and 1907-08 (64) in their league history.
● Seven of Crystal Palace’s Premier League goals this season have been scored by substitutes, their highest ever such tally in a single campaign. Odsonne Édouard, Jeffrey Schlupp and Michael Olise have netted two each for the Eagles this term, with only Dwight Gayle in 2013-14 (4) ever netting more from the bench for them in a single Premier League campaign.
● As well as having more red cards than any other side in Premier League history (104), Everton have had a league-high six players sent off this term. The Toffees last had more Premier League red cards in a single season in 2005-06 (7).
● Everton boss Frank Lampard and Crystal Palace’s Patrick Vieira faced each other 13 times as players in the Premier League, with Vieira winning nine of those meetings (D3 L1). The Frenchman was sent off in his only defeat to Lampard, a 2-1 loss for Arsenal at West Ham in October 1999.
● Everton’s Richarlison has been involved in seven goals in his last nine Premier League appearances (5 goals, 2 assists). Overall, he’s had a hand in 14 Premier League goals this season (9 goals, 5 assists), only registering more in 2019-20 (13 goals, 3 assists).
ASTON VILLA V BURNLEY
8pm Another huge game in the relegation battle as Aston Villa host Burnley. The way the fixture list has fallen means that Aston Villa are going to have a huge impact on whether or not Burnley go down this season. With the Covid19 outbreak around Christmas time, we have had a backlog in fixture and we had the same situation with Everton playing Leicester twice very close together. Aston Villa broke Burnley’s unbeaten run a few weeks ago, and then Burnley suffered another defeat against Spurs. That’s left them in big danger heading into the final stages of the league, but they do have things in their own hands. They start this evening one point behind Leeds but this is their game in hand. A draw would see them out of the relegation zone because their goal difference is so good compared to Leeds. Burnley have a slight edge on the final day too as they have home advantage against Newcastle while Leeds are away to Brentford. Long-term readers will know that I haven’t been a fan of Aston Villa this season – their performances have been bang average in my opinion. They are too good for a relegation battle, but they aren’t good enough for the top ten. In my opinion, I don’t feel Steven Gerrard has improved them either. If you look at the underlining numbers you can see that they haven’t been creating that many chances under Gerrard compared to when before he was there, but he has given them a boost in morale in fairness and more confidence.
Burnley were outplayed by Spurs at the weekend, but you would expect that to be the case – there is a gulf in class between the sides. Prior to that fixture, Burnley were playing their best football of the season. Although they conceded three times at home to Aston Villa, they were a little unlucky – both sides created the same level of chances, it’s just Villa were better in front of goal. Burnley have created xG figures of 0.64 (Spurs), 1.62, 1.65, 1.27, 2.77 and 1.97 recently which is very good for Burnley. Aston Villa’s last six games have been 0.89, 1.49, 1.62, 2.05 (v Norwich), 0.65 and 1.79. I feel Burnley have a good chance of creating more than Villa here; although Burnley have generally been better at home this season and that is a worry. From a value point of view, and betting is all about getting value, the 2.14 on Villa looks a very good lay. I fully expect Burnley to make the game closer than those odds suggest. A draw would be a very good result for Burnley and take them out of the bottom three, so it’s very likely they will be defending for their lives here. At the same time, they can create enough to score too.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Burnley at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstBur
MATCH STATS
● Following their 3-1 win at Turf Moor earlier this month, Aston Villa are looking to complete their first league double over Burnley since the 1925-26 campaign. They won 10-0 against them at Villa Park that season, their joint-biggest margin of victory in their Football League history.
● Burnley have lost just one of their last seven away league games against Aston Villa (W3 D3), going down 5-2 in February 2010. They’re unbeaten in their last three league visits to Villa Park, only having a longer run without defeat there once (4 games between 1930 and 1947).
● Aston Villa have won their final home league game in each of the last two seasons, beating Arsenal 1-0 in 2019-20 and Chelsea 2-1 last term. They last won their final home game in three consecutive campaigns between 2000-01 and 2002-03.
● Burnley have lost their final away league game in four of the last five seasons, winning the other against already relegated Norwich City in 2019-20.
● Aston Villa haven’t won any of their last seven midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League home games (D3 L4) since a 1-0 win against Arsenal in July 2020.
● Burnley have won 38% of their Premier League games on Thursdays (3/8), their best win rate on a single day of the week. Those three wins have come in their last five such games (D1 L1), with the Clarets also keeping four clean sheets in that run.
● Aston Villa have opened the scoring in each of their last four Premier League games, their longest run since a run of five in April/May last season. However, the Villans have failed to go on to win either of their last two, losing 2-1 against Liverpool and drawing 1-1 with Crystal Palace.
● Burnley have won just two of their last 19 Premier League away games (D7 L10), with only bottom side Norwich (11) scoring fewer goals on the road this term than the Clarets (15).
● Only already-relegated sides Norwich (21) and Watford (18) have failed to score in more different Premier League games this season than Burnley (16). Only in 2014-15 (18) and 2020-21 (17) have the Clarets failed to find the net in more different Premier League matches.
● Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins has scored three goals in his last four Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 14 league appearances. If he scores here, it will be his 50th home goal in English league football (excluding play-offs).
CHELSEA V LEICESTER
8pm We finish the evening with Chelsea hosting Leicester. It would be nice for Chelsea to win this game so they can enjoy the final day on Sunday without having to worry about Spurs overtaking them for third. That’s extremely unlikely given they have a two point advantage now and their final game is at home to Watford, but even so a draw here would nail down third which is a very fair result for Chelsea to be honest. We all know that they aren’t as good as Liverpool or Manchester City, but they are a much better side than Spurs, Arsenal and Manchester United. Leicester have been playing very average football this season, and it even looked like they might not finish in the top ten. Two wins against Norwich and Watford have meant they will indeed have a top ten finish, but that’s still a very disappointing result given they were challenging for a Champions League spot for the last two seasons. Even their performances against Norwich and Watford weren’t perfect – they conceded xG figures of 1.66 and 2.06 which has to be a big worry here away to a side like Chelsea. It’s no surprise to see Chelsea trading as short as 1.41 here, and although they are a little shorter than they usually would be against Leicester – you can see why based on how Leicester have been playing this season.
Chelsea had a tough weekend when losing the FA Cup Final to Liverpool on penalties. As I said in the Southampton v Liverpool preview, the players will be drained after that game but winning gives you a boost and losing just makes it worse. That being said, I feel there’s a good chance of a big Chelsea win here. Leicester have been conceding so many chances that Any Other Home Win looks a very nice price at 5.2 or bigger in the Correct Score market. An early goal will see the floodgates open in my opinion, but Chelsea do need to bounce back from the FA Cup disappointment. Leicester have been conceding an average xG of 1.9 per Premier League game this season – they have actually conceded less as that’s 1.6 but still very poor figures. Chelsea have no reason to sit back here and may as well play an open game – they were impressive against Leeds and started quickly against Wolves – I feel it’s worth a small investment in the Correct Score market.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win at 5.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheLei
MATCH STATS
● Following their 3-0 victory against Leicester earlier this season, Chelsea are looking to complete their first league double over the Foxes since 2016-17, when they won 3-0 home and away en route to winning the title.
● Leicester have won just one of their last nine Premier League away games against Chelsea (D3 L5), with the Foxes scoring just five goals in these visits and never more than once in a game.
● Leicester haven’t won their final away game in any of their last 13 Premier League campaigns (D3 L10), since a 4-2 win at Blackburn in 1996-97. Indeed, the Foxes have lost each of their last five such games, including a 2-1 loss at Chelsea last season.
● Leicester have lost five of their last seven Premier League games in London, with the exceptions being a 2-2 draw at Crystal Palace and a 2-1 win at Brentford this season. The Foxes had only lost one of their previous 10 visits to the capital before this run (W5 D4).
● Chelsea have picked up just one win in their last four Premier League home games (D1 L2). The Blues have conceded 10 goals in these four games, as many as they had in their previous 13 at Stamford Bridge.
● Leicester have scored eight goals in their last two Premier League games (3-0 v Norwich, 5-1 v Watford), one more than they had in their previous seven games combined. The Foxes are looking to score 3+ goals in three consecutive Premier League games for the fourth time, previously doing so in March 1997, March 2017 and September 2020.
● Mason Mount has both scored and assisted in six different Premier League games this season, the most any Chelsea player has done so in a single campaign. Only two English players have ever scored and assisted in seven different games within a Premier League season – Alan Shearer in 1994-95 and Harry Kane in 2020-21.
● Chelsea’s Romelu Lukaku has scored three goals in his last two Premier League appearances, having netted just two in 20 before this. The Belgian is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since a run of four in September 2017 with Manchester United.
● Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has scored six goals in his last six Premier League starts, netting a brace in each of his last two. He’s two goals away from becoming the first player to score 100 Premier League goals while over the age of 30.
● Harvey Barnes has assisted more Premier League goals for Leicester this season than any other player (9), and he could become just the fourth different player to register double figures in a single campaign for the Foxes after Steve Guppy (1997-98 and 1998-99), Muzzy Izzet (2003-04) and Riyad Mahrez (2015-16 and 2017-18).
