PREMIER LEAGUE TUESDAY: The Striker previews ARSENAL v ASTON VILLA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V ASTON VILLA
8.15pm The Premier League fixture just keep coming on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We’re back on Tuesday night as the hectic Christmas and New Year schedule continues. We have six fixtures to enjoy, but by far and away the best of them is Arsenal hosting Aston Villa. This has turned into a massive fixture after Aston Villa managed to win away to Chelsea at the weekend. I said in my preview of that game if Villa won, we’d have to include them in the title discussion and now we have a clear top three. There’s only three points between Arsenal, Man City and Aston Villa!
Villa fans have been pushing the idea that Unai Emery is killing xG given how many games Villa have won in a row! Once again, Chelsea created far more and deserved to win the game on xG; but things don’t always work out like that as we know! The Aston Villa performance level is reflected in the odds here though; there might be only three points between them but Arsenal come into the game as the hot odds on favourites.
Arsenal are trading 1.52 with Aston Villa 7.8 and the draw is 4.6 at the time of writing. You have to fully respect this run that Villa are on; morale and confidence in the camp must be sky high. They’ve put eight wins together, and they’ve won 12 of their last 13 Premier League games, with the one loss coming away to Liverpool. Their average xG created is still only 1.34 which is a mid-table level. Obviously Villa fans can poke fun at “killing xG’ but eventually the performance level will catch up with them. We all saw the poor West Ham figures and now they seem nailed on to go down this season – plus Nottingham Forest massively over-performed last season and look how they started this season.
Arsenal have been top class though. They have an average xG created of 1.74, which is the second best attacking figure in the Premier League. They have been even more impressive at the back though; their average xG conceded is only 0.85 which is the best defensive figure in Europe this season, not even the Premier League! To compare, that’s a better defensive figure than Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga and we know how dominant they are in Germany. It’s hard to argue with the fact that Arsenal are the better side here and even allowing for the Villa run, I don’t feel that the Arsenal price is too short.
Villa have been getting away with things at the back this season too; their average xG conceded is 1.45 which is reasonably high but sides haven’t been taking their chances. That is a worry when considering Under 2.5 goals, but Arsenal have been so solid at the back and I expect a pretty cagey game here. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.0 and I’d have this odds on in what should be a tight game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLArAs
