TUESDAY FA CUP: The Striker previews BLACKBURN v NEWCASTLE and LUTON TOWN v MANCHESTER CITY both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BLACKBURN V NEWCASTLE
7.45pm We have more Cup action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with the Fifth Round of the FA Cup midweek. We saw a dramatic Carabao Cup Final between Liverpool and Chelsea at the weekend; hopefully we get plenty of Cup drama again this week! We have some cracking fixtures this week, plenty of very interesting ties ahead and we kick off the action with Blackburn hosting Newcastle. Blackburn have been having a very disappointing season in the Championship; they are sitting down in 16th after finishing in 7th last season. Newcastle are obviously having a disappointing season too; from finishing in the Top Four last season they have turned into a mid-table side. Most of their major issues have come away from home, and they were put in their place again away from home at the weekend with a 4-1 loss to Arsenal. Just eleven points away from home this season for Newcastle doesn’t paint a pretty picture, and although this is a game that they should win on paper it’s hard to have a massive amount of confidence in Newcastle away from home at the moment. It will be interesting to see how Blackburn can perform, while they have lost a lot of games they do create more than they concede at home in the Championship.
As you would expect given the gulf in class between the sides, Newcastle come into the game as the odds on favourites. The Newcastle win is trading 1.57 with Blackburn 5.5 and the draw is 5.2 at the time of writing. Newcastle’s performance levels away from home this season have been woeful. They have conceded so many chances away from home; their average xG conceded is as high as 1.77! Their average xG created away from home is only 1.21 too; I fully accept that there is a massive gulf in class between the sides but I just can’t have Newcastle as short as 1.57 here. I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest, and I’m happy with a small Newcastle lay. I know Blackburn have struggled to win games – their place in the Championship table makes that obvious – but they are creating an average xG of 1.56 at home while conceding 1.38. Obviously the leagues are very different, but as I said, it’s very hard to justify Newcastle being this short away from home.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Newcastle to beat Blackburn at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BlaNew
LUTON TOWN V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm We have an all Premier League clash next as Luton Town host Manchester City. Pep Guardiola’s men will be fully expected to come through this tie, and they are trading the shortest price of the night at 1.32 with Luton Town 10.5 and the draw is 6.2 at the time of writing. Luton Town did give City problems when the sides faced each other here in the Premier League; they took the lead just before half-time and City didn’t equalise until the 62th minute. Obviously there is a huge gulf in class between the sides here, but you might get a better price on City in-running rather than just backing the 1.32. After winning three out of five Premier League games and getting back into the relegation mix Luton have lost three of their last four. That’s left them in the relegation zone again, but just one point behind Everton. That loss here against Sheffield United was a real dent in their hopes to stay up. For most football fans, this will be a case of how many goals can City score rather than will they win. They did make hard work of beating Bournemouth at the weekend, and that was three games in a row where they only scored once which is unusual for City in fairness.
Their average xG created in the Premier League this season is 2.17, which is the best attacking figure in the league. The bad news for Luton fans too is that City have actually been creating more chances away from home; their average xG created increases to a whopping 2.37 away! With City so short in the match odds markets, the focus here will be the goal and handicap markets. City have been rock solid at the back, their average xG conceded is less than 1.0 this season, and when you consider that Luton’s average xG created is only 1.13 I think City can keep a clean sheet here on the way to winning. The market is expecting goals, but mostly from City. I like Both Teams Not To Score which is trading at 1.88. City have only conceded once in their last four Premier League games, they can continue that good run here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutMan
