TUESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews LUTON TOWN v BURNLEY on Tuesday including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LUTON TOWN V BURNLEY
7.30pm While all eyes might be on the Champions League on Tuesday night, we also have a massive clash at the bottom of the Premier League table on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We had plenty of drama in the Premier League at the weekend; the Spurs v Liverpool game taking all the headlines with VAR but also Manchester City’s shock loss to Wolves as well as another loss for Manchester United to put yet more pressure on Erik ten Hag. Tuesday night sees Luton Town host Burnley after this fixture had to be postponed earlier in the season because Kenilworth Road wasn’t ready yet.
Lost amongst all the VAR drama on Saturday evening between Spurs and Liverpool was the fact Luton beat Everton 2-1 away from home. That was an absolutely massive win – it would have been the result of the day but then we also had Wolves shocking Manchester City etc! That win moves Luton out of the relegation zone for the time being, and obviously piles huge pressure on Everton. It will also give Luton a huge confidence boost, and possibly give them some belief that they can actually stay up. They are still long odds on to get relegated though, so let’s be realistic.
This is another huge game in the relegation battle, even this early in the season. At the start of the season, the general feeling was Burnley would avoid a relegation battle – they had bossed the Championship and the record of Championship winners staying up is usually very good. Not even allowing for the fact they won the Championship so easily and have a pretty strong squad. That hasn’t turned out to be the case though – only one point from six games will have a lot of Burnley fans worried. And we’ve all seen before that a slow start can spiral yet quickly.
Burnley have had a difficult fixture list. They’ve already had to play Manchester City, Spurs, Manchester United and Newcastle – plus a very good Aston Villa side under Unai Emery. It’s probably a little harsh to judge them yet with that fixture list, and this is a huge game for them. We have a very open betting heat, and Burnley come into the game as the marginal favourites. They are trading 2.74 with Luton Town 2.92 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing.
Neither side have been producing good football this season looking at the stats. Burnley are only creating an average xG of 1.05 while Luton are only 0.01 better at 1.06! Those two figures are in the bottom five for chances created this season. They are both very similar at the back too – Burnley’s average xG conceded is 1.58 while Luton are conceding marginally more chances at 1.6. Figures wise, there really isn’t much between the sides. You’d give Burnley the edge because their fixture list has been more difficult.
I look at this game and I really don’t see much between the sides. I agree with the market that Burnley should be favourites, but Luton having home advantage really brings the sides closer together in my opinion. I can see a very tense and cagey affair, and Under 2.5 goals is definitely an option at 1.81 but I really like the draw here at 3.35. I feel that’s the value call in what should be a very close game.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.35 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutBur
