THE STRIKER: previews Tuesday’s Premier League games between CRYSTAL PALACE v CHELSEA, WATFORD v NORWICH and ARSENAL v LEICESTER – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
CRYSTAL PALACE V CHELSEA
6pm We kick off another round of Premier League fixtures as Crystal Palace v Chelsea starts Matchday 34! Chelsea got back to winning ways with a smooth 3-0 win at home to Watford last time out after losing to West Ham, and that win has steadied the ship in their bid for a Top Four finish. Wolves lost ground at the weekend, and Chelsea will be hoping United catch Leicester and that they can finish third. They have a very winnable game here against a Palace side who have lost their last three.
Palace were very unlucky to lose to Burnley but their losses against Leicester and Liverpool were very fair. Palace are towards the bottom of the table on home form, but it’s surprising they aren’t lower down considering they have only scored 12 times in 16 games. Their xG is higher at nearly 18, but they have only conceded 14 with an xGA of 20. Chelsea are playing some very good football at the moment and Palace are a side that don’t impress me at all. They lack creativity and Chelsea will out-score them here. They are worth a small investment at 1.51.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Chelsea to beat Crystal Palace at 1.51 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQcryche
MATCH STATS
- Crystal Palace have lost four of their last five home league games against Chelsea, winning the other in October 2017.
- None of the last 17 Premier League meetings between Crystal Palace and Chelsea have finished level, with the Blues winning 13 to Palace’s four.
- Only Fulham (19.5%) have a lower win rate in Premier League London derbies than Crystal Palace (23.5% – won 24/102). Meanwhile, Chelsea have the highest win percentage in such matches (51.4% – won 131/255).
- Chelsea have scored exactly twice in nine of their last 10 Premier League London derby matches (W7 D1 L2), failing to score in the other (0-1 v West Ham in November).
- Crystal Palace are the only unbeaten side in Premier League home London derbies this season (W1 D1). Defeat here will see every London side lose a home derby in the competition for the first time since 2012-13.
- Crystal Palace have lost their last three Premier League games without scoring a single goal. They last lost four in a row without scoring between May-September 2017 – a run of eight under three different managers (Sam Allardyce, Frank de Boer and Roy Hodgson).
- Chelsea have won four of their last five Premier League games (L1) – as many as they had in their previous 13. The Blues have also scored at least twice in nine of their last 10 Premier League matches, losing 0-2 against Man Utd in the other.
- Crystal Palace are the only side yet to score more than twice in a single Premier League game this season, while no side has failed to score in as many home games as the Eagles (6). However, Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet away from home in the Premier League this term.
- In their four Premier League games since the restart, Gary Cahill has had more shots on target than any other Crystal Palace player, with his three efforts on target accounting for 43% of the Eagles’ total (3/7).
- Against Watford, Willian became just the sixth player in Premier League history to score a penalty in three consecutive appearances in the competition – no player has ever scored from the spot in four successive games.
WATFORD V NORWICH
6pm Betting people might have known that Norwich’s season was over before lockdown started, but it’s definitely over now! As I noted at the time, that loss to Manchester United in extra-time in the FA Cup would have crushed them given it was their last remaining hope and now that they are nailed to the bottom of the table they have nothing to play for. It’s going to be very hard for them to “get up” for the challenge too with games behind closed doors.
The problem for this game is obvious. You want to be against Norwich and we have collected with two bets since their FA Cup loss but Watford haven’t won in their last five games and they are trading 1.67 here. They aren’t worth a big bet, but 1.67 is big enough to tempt me in. This is a massive game for Watford as they sit in 17th and three points would be a big step to staying up. Their xG this season has been better than their results and they can beat this poor Norwich side.
The Striker Says:
One point win Watford to beat Norwich at 1.67 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwatnor
MATCH STATS
- Watford are looking to complete the league double over Norwich for the first time since the 2005-06 Championship campaign, following their 2-0 win at Carrow Road in the reverse fixture.
- Norwich have only lost one of their last four away games against Watford in all competitions (W2 D1), though it was their last such visit there in the Premier League (0-2 in December 2015).
- Watford (15) and Norwich (16) have failed to score in more games than any other Premier League sides this season, with Norwich drawing a blank in a league-high 11 away games, while no side has failed more at home than the Hornets (6).
- Norwich have lost each of their last five Premier League games – only once have they lost more consecutively in the competition (seven in May 1995). Indeed, this is the Canaries’ fifth run of 5+ straight defeats in the competition, with the previous four coming in each of the seasons they’ve been relegated (94-95, 04-05, 13-14 and 15-16).
- Watford have lost their last three Premier League games by an aggregate score of 1-7. They last lost four in a row within the same season back in December 2017.
- Norwich City have lost 22 Premier League games this season – in no top-flight campaign have they ever lost more. Their highest number of defeats in a league season is 24, with the Canaries last losing that many in the 2008-09 Championship campaign.
- Norwich have scored just six goals in their 16 Premier League away games this season; the fewest scored on the road in a full Premier League campaign is eight, most recently by Derby in 2007-08. The Canaries’ shot conversion rate away from home this season is just 3.5% (6 goals from 173 shots).
- Watford have scored 29 Premier League goals but have an expected goals (xG) total of 39, meaning they’ve scored 10 goals fewer than expected based on the quality of their chances. It’s the biggest negative such difference in the Premier League this season.
- Watford’s Danny Welbeck is yet to appear on the winning side in a Premier League match since joining the Hornets (D4 L9), though only four of his 13 appearances have been starts. Welbeck has scored three Premier League goals against Norwich, with all of these coming as a substitute – only against Aston Villa and Everton (4 each) has he netted more.
- Norwich’s leading scorer this season Teemu Pukki is without a goal in nine Premier League appearances, with his goalless run standing at 10 hours and 28 minutes.
ARSENAL V LEICESTER
8.15pm What a cracking fixture. Most certainly the highlight of today, if not the whole week in the Premier League. Arsenal are on a four game winning run which is very rare for them these days, and now they must fancy their chances of getting a Europa League spot. That looked unlikely prior to lockdown, and now they have confidence and something to aim for. They didn’t blow Wolves away, but they were able to grind out a win and that’s not something they usually do. Leicester are under pressure in the race for a Top Four finish, but they steadied the ship with a 3-0 win against Crystal Palace on Saturday.
This is a fascinating game. Prior to the Palace win, Leicester were woefully out of form and not creating much. They were impressive against Palace, and full value for the 3-0 win. Arsenal are full of confidence though and I feel that the match odds are pretty bang on here. You’d fancy Arsenal to win, but the odds are about right and reflect that. I see value in the goals market here, with over 2.5 goals 1.9 on BETDAQ Exchange. Both sides give up plenty of chances and I can see a very open game here. An early goal could see a very big score line!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.9 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQarslei
MATCH STATS
- Arsenal are unbeaten in 22 home league games against Leicester (W19 D3), winning each of the last 12 in a row. Only against Stoke (13 between 1983-2018) have they had a longer winning home run against an opponent in the top-flight.
- Leicester have won three of their last four league games against Arsenal (L1), as many as they had in their previous 36 against the Gunners (D10 L23). They’re looking to win three consecutive league games against Arsenal for the first time since 1963.
- Arsenal have won three consecutive Premier League games without conceding for the first time since November 2017. They last won four in a row without reply back in May 2014.
- Leicester won their first Premier League game since the restart last time out against Crystal Palace, scoring more goals in that 3-0 victory than they had in their previous three league games combined (2).
- Arsenal have taken maximum points from their last four home Premier League games, having won just four of their previous 14 at the Emirates (D6 L4).
- No Premier League sides have had more substitute goal involvements since the restart than Arsenal (3 goals, 1 assist) and Leicester (1 goal, 3 assists) – level with also Newcastle (3 goals, 1 assist). A substitute has scored for the Gunners in each of their last three Premier League games.
- Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored nine goals in his last nine Premier League games against Arsenal, including six in his last five.
- Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers is winless in all six of his away matches against Arsenal in all competitions (D2 L4), with this his first visit there since a 0-0 draw in August 2015 when he was Liverpool manager.
- Arsenal’s Emiliano Martinez has kept a clean sheet in six of his eight Premier League starts (75%), the best ratio of any Gunners keeper in the competition (min. 5 starts).
- Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored six goals in his last six Premier League home games, including a brace against Norwich last time out. A goal here will see him become the second player to score 20+ goals in consecutive Premier League seasons for Arsenal (after Thierry Henry, five between 2001-02 and 2005-06).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
