THE STRIKER: previews Tuesday’s two Premier League games – WATFORD v MAN CITY and ASTON VILLA v ARSENAL both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
WATFORD V MANCHESTER CITY
6pm It’s a huge evening at the bottom of the table as Watford host Manchester City and Aston Villa host Arsenal later. It’s fair to say that both of the “bigger sides” will have their eyes on another prize, with City looking towards the Champions League now and Arsenal in the FA Cup final. Watford sacked another manager at the weekend following their 3-1 defeat to West Ham and the owners will be hoping that they see a “change of manager bounce” that can happen. That might still fall some way short of competing with City though!
Looking at the xG numbers, Watford are unlucky to be where they are this season. Their performances have been better than 17th, however with so many managers it’s hard to see how that works for a club. The reality is they have had problems converting their chances in front of goal and while City were beaten at the weekend against Arsenal they performed well and the second Arsenal goal was totally against the run of play. This is a hard game to weigh up given City have nothing to play for, Watford have changed management and are fighting to stay up. Over all I think the draw is worth a small bet at 6.0 – if there was problems in the dressing room we should see an improved performance from Watford but it’s hard to see them beating City.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 6.0 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwatmci
MATCH STATS
- Watford’s biggest ever top-flight home defeat (0-6 in September 2017) and biggest ever overall league defeat (0-8 in September 2019) have come against Manchester City.
- Manchester City have won their last 12 games against Watford in all competitions by an aggregate score of 46-6, including an 8-0 victory in the reverse fixture in September.
- Under manager Nigel Pearson, Watford have won six of their 10 Premier League home games (D2 L2) and have only failed to score once at Vicarage Road.
- Manchester City haven’t lost their final away game of a Premier League season since 2008-09 (1-2 vs Tottenham), winning eight and drawing two of their 10 such games since.
- Watford have already beaten champions Liverpool at Vicarage Road and Manchester City are guaranteed to finish 2nd. The last team to beat both top-two teams at home in the Premier League in a season was Manchester United in 2016-17 (1-0 vs Spurs, 2-0 vs Chelsea).
- Man City need to score four goals in this match to equal the Premier League record for goals against an opponent in a single season (12), having won 8-0 in the reverse game. The record is held by Blackburn (1995-96 vs Nottingham Forest) and Spurs (2009-10 vs Wigan); City have averaged four goals per game under Pep Guardiola against Watford in the Premier League.
- Pep Guardiola has made 137 changes to his Manchester City starting XI in the Premier League this season – only Man Utd in 2013-14 (144) and 2008-09 (140) have made more in a single campaign.
- Four of Troy Deeney’s last six home league goals for Watford have been penalties, with the striker scoring two from the spot in the Hornets’ last home game against Newcastle. Indeed, since Watford’s promotion in 2015, Deeney has scored more Premier League penalties at Vicarage Road (13) than any other player at a single stadium in the competition.
- Man City’s Raheem Sterling has been involved in nine goals in his last five games against Watford in all competitions (7 goals, 2 assists), including six in his last two (5 goals, 1 assist).
- Gabriel Jesus has scored in 33 Premier League games for Manchester City and ended on the winning side in 32 of those (D1), a win ratio of 97% – the best of any player to have scored in at least 20 games in Premier League history. City have won the last 30 league games when Jesus has found the net.
ASTON VILLA V ARSENAL
8.15pm Arsenal will be on cloud nine after reaching the FA Cup final at the weekend and now that appears to be their best chance to get into Europe next season. They might mean they switch compete focus on that final and start preparing early. We might even see a few changes here. It’s difficult to know but that’s definitely something to be aware of heading into tonight’s game. Villa will be hoping Arsenal ease off as they desperately need a win. They start the evening three points behind Watford and their plan will certainly be to win here and expect City to beat Watford – then they go into the final day level on points.
Arsenal have always been unreliable away from home, but their away games have definitely become tighter this season. In 18 games, they have scored 20 goals and conceded 23. Usually they would concede more but they’d also score more too and we’d see very entertaining games! They have finished the season strongly in fairness to them, and although they were lucky to beat City and Liverpool – they most certainly have the class to beat this Villa side. It’s only worth a small bet because it’s difficult to know their mindset after the FA Cup semi-final but I’m happy to back Arsenal at 2.18 here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Arsenal to beat Aston Villa at 2.18 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQastars
MATCH STATS
- Aston Villa are winless in their last 17 Premier League home games against Arsenal (D7 L10) since a 3-2 victory in December 1998.
- Arsenal have won their last seven meetings with Aston Villa in all competitions by an aggregate score of 23-3.
- Arsenal have won 12 away Premier League matches at Villa Park – at no venue have they won more (also 12 at Goodison Park). The only team they’ve won more away games against are West Ham (13 – 11 at Upton Park, 2 at London Stadium).
- Among the 50 Premier League fixtures to have been played at least 40 times, only Aston Villa vs West Ham (36.6%) have seen a lower percentage of home wins than Arsenal vs Aston Villa (36.7% – 18/49). However, the home side has triumphed in three of the last four meetings, as many as in the previous 17 between the teams.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their final away game in each of their last nine Premier League seasons (W6 D3), since losing 1-2 at Blackburn in 2009-10.
- Arsenal have lost three of their five Premier League away games since the restart (W2), as many as they had lost on the road in their first 13 this season (W2 D8 L3). Meanwhile, this could be their first season where they failed to win away against all three promoted clubs since 1989-90, following a defeat at Sheffield United and a draw at Norwich earlier this term.
- Aston Villa have picked up four points in their last two Premier League games (W1 D1), twice as many as they’d won in their previous 10 combined (D2 L8).
- Arsenal have had four English players aged under-21 score in the Premier League this season (Eddie Nketiah, Joe Willock, Bukayo Saka, Reiss Nelson), the first team to achieve this in a season since Middlesbrough in 2007-08 (David Wheater, Ben Hutchinson, Lee Cattermole and Adam Johnson).
- Since his league debut for Aston Villa in January 2017, Conor Hourihane has provided more assists in league competition (inc. play offs) than any other Villa player (21).
- Arsenal striker Alexandre Lacazette has scored in his last two away Premier League games, having found the net just once in his previous 24 on the road. The Frenchman is looking to score in three consecutive away league games for the first time since January 2017, when he played for Lyon in Ligue 1.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
