PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews the two matches in the Premier League on Tuesday with a match preview, FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. Chelsea and Man U are both in action!
CHELSEA V BOURNEMOUTH
5.30pm The Premier League action continues after Boxing Day on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with two games on the 27th with Chelsea and Manchester United in action! Most football fans will be expecting two comfortable home wins on Tuesday evening, but Chelsea and Manchester United have both had their issues this season. As we re-start the Premier League however, both of the opposition sides are trading odds on to get relegated this season. We should have a cracking evening, and we kick it off with Chelsea hosting Bournemouth. I remarked in my Boxing Day preview that I thought Brighton would struggle without Potter, but they went into the World Cup on the same points as Chelsea. There’s no getting away from the fact that Chelsea have been poor this season, and there’s definitely a big debate to be had about whether or not they were right to sack Thomas Tuchel – such a top quality manager is hard to find, and as Graham Potter is finding out the squad hasn’t really improved their xG figures since he took over. Chelsea went into the World Cup off the back of three losses against Brighton, Arsenal and Newcastle – they also lost in the Cup against Manchester City. They had a difficult fixture list to be fair; but they were totally outplayed in every game.
They won’t be under as much pressure her at home to Bournemouth, but the jury is definitely out on Chelsea in my opinion. It will be very interesting to see how they perform after the World Cup break, but I wouldn’t be surprised if their season ended in disappointment. It’s already been a disappointing season really. Although Bournemouth are odds on to go down this season, they will still be delighted with their start to the season. The betting markets are just expecting them to fall down the table, but they went into the World Cup sitting in 14th. That’s only three points away from the bottom three so they are still in trouble, but they have fought well. It’s pretty obvious their squad is limited, and their under-lining numbers are poor too, but they do fight hard which is to their credit. They have serious issues though looking at their xG figures – they are conceding close to two goals per game and only creating an average xG of 0.9 per game. It’s hard to see past a Chelsea win here, but the 1.35 is too short for me to back. Bournemouth have been involved in a lot of high scoring games this season, and Chelsea have been conceding sloppy goals too – I think we’ll get a very entertaining game here, and Over 2.5 goals looks the best bet at 1.72.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheBou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Chelsea have lost three of their five Premier League home games against Bournemouth (W2) – since the start of 2015-16, they’ve only lost more at Stamford Bridge against Liverpool and Manchester City (4 each).
● Bournemouth have taken seven points from their last three Premier League games against Chelsea (W2 D1), more than they had in their first seven against them (W2 L5).
● Chelsea have lost their final league game in just one of the last 19 calendar years (W12 D6), going down 3- 1 against Aston Villa in their last game of 2011.
● Chelsea have lost each of their last three Premier League games, last losing four in a row back in February/March 1998 under Ruud Gullit (1 game) and Gianluca Vialli (3).
● Bournemouth have scored eight goals in their last three Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 11 combined. The Cherries are looking to score 3+ goals in three consecutive league games for the first time since November 2014.
● Only West Ham and Everton (4 each) have scored fewer first-half goals in the Premier League this season than Chelsea (6). The Blues haven’t scored before half-time in any of their last five league games, last having a longer run in February/March 2012 (6).
● As well as having the most overall goals conceded in the Premier League this season (32), Bournemouth have conceded the most goals from headers (8), corners (9), penalties (5) and set-pieces (10, excluding penalties) so far this term.
● Chelsea’s Raheem Sterling has scored nine goals in his nine Premier League appearances against Bournemouth, including his first ever hat-trick in the competition back in October 2015. Against no side has he scored more often in league football.
● Chelsea striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored in three of his four Premier League appearances against Bournemouth, including a Boxing Day strike against them in 2019.
● No player has been involved in more Premier League goals for Bournemouth this season than Marcus Tavernier (6 – 2 goals, 4 assists). He’s both scored and assisted in his last two games, the only Cherries player to do so in consecutive top-flight appearances.
MANCHESTER UNITED V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
8pm Manchester United start life without Cristiano Ronaldo (again) as they host Nottingham Forest. We can debate for days, or even weeks, about the ins and outs of the interview he gave to Piers Morgan but the reality is you just can’t do that. Remember when Roy Keane did an interview back in the day under Alex Ferguson – the interview didn’t air because it was with MUFC TV but he had to leave too. You just can’t do that to your club and teammates. The reality is as well, is that Ronaldo wanted to leave and with the atmosphere he was creating it was better for Manchester United that he left – walking off early against Spurs was unacceptable, just as much as refusing to come on as a sub. Maybe the fact that United were playing better without him was getting to him, but it’s for the best he is gone. It will be interesting to see how United move forward now without him; there should be less drama within the dressing room, and less questions for ten Hag to answer each week. United simply created more chances without him, and I feel ten Hag had the full support of 99% of United fans. The ones on Ronaldo’s side were more Ronaldo fans than United fans. They should re-start the season with a win here against the struggling Nottingham Forest, but they did go into the World Cup with a win to move them within range of getting out of the bottom three.
Nottingham Forest have a huge squad, with a massive wage bill – it will be interesting to see how they re-start the season, what XI becomes the first choice, and then can they deal with the pressure of a relegation battle. It’s hard to see past a United win here, but you wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.33. it’s fair to say that they haven’t exactly fired at home this season – when sides put XI men behind the ball they still struggle to create chances. They were excellent here against Spurs, but then didn’t create much against Newcastle and looked very poor away to Aston Villa in the lead up to the World Cup. You just can’t fully trust this United side in terms of what kind of performance they will deliver yet in my opinion, but they are improving under ten Hag. I feel we’ll see a United win here, but it won’t be pretty. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.3 and that looks a nice value option. I can see Nottingham Forest being quite negative here as they aim for a draw, and United will find it tough to break them down – eventually I can see them grinding out a 1-0 or 2-0 win, but this might not be the most entertaining viewing!
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ManNot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Manchester United have won their last six meetings with Nottingham Forest in all competitions, with this their first game against them since an 8-1 win at the City Ground in February 1999.
● Nottingham Forest have lost four of their five Premier League away games against Manchester United, with the exception being a 2-1 win in December 1994 as a promoted side. That victory accounted for 50% of the total goals Manchester United conceded at Old Trafford in the league that season.
● Nottingham Forest have conceded more Premier League goals against Manchester United than they have against any other opponent (31). 24 of these goals have come in their last five against the Red Devils, having shipped just seven in their first five.
● Manchester United have lost just six of their 89 Premier League home games against promoted sides (W68 D15) – against Nottingham Forest (December 1994), Derby (April 1997), Middlesbrough (December 1998), Bolton (October 2001), Norwich (December 2015) and Cardiff (May 2019).
● Nottingham Forest have won their final league game in just one of the last eight calendar years (D2 L5), beating Wigan Athletic 1-0 at home in their last match in 2019.
● Manchester United have won four of their last five Premier League home games (D1), keeping a clean sheet in each of the last three. They last went four consecutive home league games without conceding between February-June 2020.
● With just two points and a goal difference of -18, Nottingham Forest have the worst away record in the Premier League so far this season. They’ve scored just once in their seven away games so far, with Brennan Johnson netting in a 1-1 draw at Everton.
● Nottingham Forest have failed to score in their last five Premier League away games – it’s their longest run without an away goal in league football since a run of seven between September and November 1970.
● Manchester United have scored more goals from fast breaks than any other side in the Premier League this season (5). These goals account for 25% of their total so far this term (5/20), also a league-high.
● Nottingham Forest’s Jesse Lingard scored 20 goals in 149 Premier League appearances for Manchester United between 2014 and 2022 – this could be his first ever game against his former side in the competition.
