TUESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews a busy night of Premier League action – five games all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V ARSENAL
7.30pm After a break at the weekend for the FA Cup Fourth Round, the Premier League is back with a bang on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We’ve had two weekends of just five fixtures as every side got a weekend off with the Winter Break, but we’re straight into a full midweek fixture list on Tuesday followed by another one the weekend. We’re going to have a pretty busy period now, and we should know a lot more about the title race and the relegation battle over the next three weeks. We kick off Tuesday night with Nottingham Forest hosting Arsenal. After getting knocked out of the FA Cup in the Third Round by Liverpool, Arsenal had a longer break than most of the other Premier League sides. They need to dust themselves off and re-focus because they are five points behind Liverpool now. Losses against West Ham and Fulham after getting a draw away to Liverpool were massive setbacks. You just cannot afford to drop those points, especially with Kevin De Bruyne back for Manchester City now. We have a massive week coming up for Liverpool as they play Chelsea on Wednesday followed by meeting Arsenal next weekend – this week should decide who is the main challenger to City for the title.
As you would expect, Arsenal come into this game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.41 at the time of writing with Nottingham Forest 9.0 and the draw is 5.3. Nottingham Forest were involved in the FA Cup Fourth Round at the weekend – they drew 0-0 away to Bristol City on Friday night which was a disappointing result. It adds another fixture to their schedule, but it’s not like they have European commitments or anything. There’s a huge gulf in class between these sides looking at their performances levels. While Nottingham Forest aren’t in the bottom three at the moment, their average xG created is only 0.94 which is the second worst attacking figure in the Premier League. They’ve also been conceding plenty of goals, and they’d be in big trouble bar those recent wins against Newcastle and Manchester United which were very unexpected – possibly a new manager bounce too! It will be interesting to see how they perform here, but it’s hard to see past the Arsenal win. I would happily include Arsenal in any midweek Acca, but I like Over 2.5 goals here at 1.73. Arsenal have leaked goals lately, but really and truly Forest have been playing a very open game so I can see another very open game here with plenty of chances.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NttArs
FULHAM V EVERTON
7.45pm Fulham host Everton next, and both of these sides were in FA Cup action on Saturday. Everton crashed out at home against Luton Town, and although that was a massive setback I’d say their fans are happy it was the FA Cup rather than the Premier League! As things stand, Everton are only one point ahead of Luton who sit in the relegation battle. Although Everton have played some excellent football at times this season, that ten point deduction has been a big blow and the reality is they need to pick up some points soon to ease the pressure. They have an average xG created this season of 1.48 which is in between the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United but they need to start moving away from the relegation fight. It will be interesting to see how they get on here – Fulham are definitely there for the taking but Everton haven’t been as good way from home as they have been at home. We have an open betting heat here with Fulham coming into the game as favourites at 2.5, Everton are 3.1 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing.
It’s hard to see anything bar a very close game here, and you’d expect there will only be one goal between the sides if there is a winner. Everton are conceding more chances than they are creating away from home this season, and while they are playing to a higher standard compared to Fulham home advantage seems very important for Fulham. Away from home, Fulham are conceding a whopping average xG of 1.86 while at home their average xG conceded drops to only 1.21 – they are creating even less than that away from home too! The sides met on the opening day of the season and Fulham grinded out a 1-0 win away from home then, that’s actually been their only away win of the season which is remarkable! As I said above, this game screams a very close affair with very few chances – I like the draw bet at 3.5 and I feel that is the value position. I know we have an open market, I would bring the draw in and push Fulham out to make it even more open!
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FlmEve
LUTON TOWN V BRIGHTON
7.45pm We have another two sides who were involved in the FA Cup on Saturday next as Luton host Brighton. Both of them recorded away wins and marsh on with Luton beating Everton and Brighton beating Sheffield United. Obviously Brighton’s win wasn’t unexpected but Luton will be very pleased with their win against Everton. As I said above, it’s a shame for Luton and a good thing for Everton that it wasn’t in the Premier League given the situation! Luton have given themselves a decent chance of staying up; they have got back into the mix now anyway and we’ll just have to see what happens. Their stats are still very poor, but you have to give them credit for grinding out as many results as possible. Their average xG created is only 0.94 which is the joint second worst attacking figure in the Premier League, while their average xG conceded is a very high 1.79 which is the second worst defensive figure. There’s no doubt about it, Luton are a poor side but their fighting spirit has given them a better chance of staying up compared to Burnley who have been a better side stats wise.
Brighton come into this game as the odds on favourites, they are trading 1.76 with Luton Town 4.9 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides performance level wise this season, but you have to worry about the amount of games Brighton have dropped points in this season. Their average xG created this season is 1.77 which puts them as the fifth best attacking side this season, but they have been far too open and conceded too many goals at the back. They’ve only kept two clean sheets all season in the Premier League, but they have come in their last two games against West Ham and Wolves so maybe they are heading in the right direction. They failed to win those two games though, and that means they’ve only won once in their last six Premier League games. For as good as their attacking stats are, they’ve only managed three wins in 15 Premier League games which clearly isn’t good enough. The 1.76 feels a little short here, but Brighton games always tend to be open affair and Overs 2.5 goals at 1.65 looks a very nice position here. I know Luton have struggled to score goals, but Brighton being so open at the back will give them chances and we should see an entertaining game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutBri
CRYSTAL PALACE V SHEFFIELD UNITED
8pm We have an interesting market next as Crystal Palace hosting Sheffield United. Both sides have had major issues this season. Crystal Palace come into the game as the odds on favourites, but they are hardly a side that you could trust backing at short odds. The home win is trading 1.71 with Sheffield United 6.0 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. Although Crystal Palace have been very poor this season – their fans even protested in their 5-0 loss away to Arsenal – the problem here is that Sheffield United are worse! Crystal Palace have poor stats; their average xG created is 1.13 which is poor; puts them in the bottom six attacking sides and their average xG conceded is also average at 1.44. Very poor figures, but as I said Sheffield United are worst. Their average xG created is only 0.81 which is the worst in the Premier League, and they also have the worst defensive figure too at 1.85. That gives them an overall performance figure of -1.05 which is actually the worst performance level in the whole of Europe from the major leagues. Where do you even start with major issues at the front and back.
Sheffield United are nailed on to go down, and they got knocked out of the FA Cup at the weekend too shipping five goals against Brighton. As I said above, we have two sides here who are hard to have confidence in. On paper, Palace should win but the 1.71 isn’t an appeal bet given their average xG created at home of only 1.18. That’s just not good enough to considering backing an odds on shot; granted Sheffield United have been exceptionally poor this season. I’m not going keep stakes low here as it’s hard to have confidence in either side, but Over 2.5 goals looks value at 2.16 and is worth a small bet. I know both sides have really struggled to create decent chances this season, but they have both been poor at the back too. Given the situation with Sheffield United nailed to the bottom of the table, they have to go for games now so I would expect their games to be very open. This game might be a good test of that with a view to the future markets!
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryShe
ASTON VILLA V NEWCASTLE
8.15pm We finish Tuesday night with Aston Villa hosting Newcastle. We have two sides who have been heading in totally different directions this season here – Villa are flying high sitting in fourth on the same amount of points as Manchester City (having played a game more) and Arsenal. While for Newcastle, they have slipped down to mid-table. The major issue for Newcastle this season has been their away form – they’ve only managed one win away from home in the Premier League all season. In fairness, if you’re going to do that make it a good one; they beat Sheffield United 8-0! That away form has definitely had a big impact on their confidence, and their home performances have suffered too in recent weeks to the point where Eddie Howe might be feeling pressure. Especially with big money owners and the likes of Jose Mourinho now available. Newcastle did manage an away win in the FA Cup at the weekend against Fulham though, and that will surely give them a confidence boost given all the issues this season. Aston Villa were also in action in the FA Cup, they drew 0-0 away to Chelsea so have to add the replay to their fixture list going forward. It’s another game in a busy period, but they will fancy that tie with home advantage now.
We should have a good game here, and I have to say I was slightly surprised when I saw the odds. I know it’s just a reflection of how the teams have been performing this season, but I was still surprised to see Aston Villa marginally odds on. The home win is trading 1.97 at the time of writing with Newcastle 3.95 and the draw is 4.1. It’s hard to support Newcastle away from home given the way they have played this season; their average xG conceded away from home is a whopping 1.79! That’s just far too big, and add that to the fact that Aston Villa have been superb at home too. I can understand why Aston Villa are odds on, I just feel there isn’t much value in the price at 1.97. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here as I really like Under 2.5 goals at 2.64. I really felt we’d see a more even market here; Villa have been exceptional at the back at home this season – they stopped Manchester City and Arsenal from scoring here. Emery has tended to set them up in a very solid fashion at home in the bigger games and I feel we’re getting a lot of value in the odds at 2.64.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AvlNew
