THE STRIKER: previews the Premier League games on Tuesday with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets. The action starts at 6pm with SHEFFIELD UNITED v WEST BROM and WOLVES v ARSENAL followed by the 8.15pm games MAN U v SOUTHAMPTON and NEWCASTLE v CRYSTAL PALACE.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

SHEFFIELD UNITED v WEST BROM

6pm There’s no rest for Premier League clubs as we have another full round of midweek fixtures! We have another full fixture list at the weekend and then the FA Cup midweek next week, so it’s a tough schedule for the clubs. We start with a bottom of the table clash as Sheffield United host West Brom. Two recent wins have given Sheffield United some hope of staying up after two recent wins, especially with one coming away to Manchester United, however the reality is these two clubs are all long odds on to get relegated at the end of the season. Almost certainly the loser of this clash will go down, while the winner can fight on for another few weeks at least.

I have to say I was very surprised at the odds here when I clicked into BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Sheffield United are just a shade of odds on at 1.99 and that’s a very skinny price in this game. I fully take on board that West Brom have been very poor this season, indeed Sheffield United have probably played the better football even though they are four points below them at the bottom of the table, but I just can’t have either side at odds on here. Home advantage means little with no crowds too, and I have to lay this Sheffield United price from a value point of view. I expect a very low quality affair with very few chances.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Sheffield United to beat West Brom at 1.99 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQshuwba

MATCH STATS

  • Sheffield United have lost three of their last four league games against West Brom (W1), as many as they had in their previous 12 against them (W6 D3).
  • West Brom are looking to complete the league double over Sheffield United for the first time since the 1997-98 second tier campaign, winning 4-2 at Bramall Lane that season.
  • Sheffield United have never lost a Premier League home game in February, winning four and drawing two of their six games. Only Bournemouth (8 in September) and Brighton (7 in October) have played more home games in a specific month without ever losing in the competition.
  • Sheffield United have earned fewer home points than any other side in the Premier League this season (4 – W1 D1 L8); indeed, four points is the fewest by a side after their first 10 home games of a Premier League campaign since Bolton in 2011-12 (also four).
  • West Bromwich Albion are winless in all 31 of their Premier League games played on Tuesdays (D13 L18), the most games played by a side on a specific day of the week without victory in the competition’s history.
  • Sheffield United have lost eight matches 1-0 in the Premier League this season – at this stage of a top-flight season (after 21 matches), this is the joint-most 1-0 losses by a team, equalling Ipswich Town in 1985/86.
  • West Bromwich Albion have shipped 50 goals in 21 Premier League matches this season, the second quickest a side has conceded 50 goals in a Premier League season behind only Barnsley in 1997/98, who conceded 50 in their first 19 games.
  • On the day of this game, it will be 21 years and 80 days since Sam Allardyce last won away at Sheffield United in the league, winning 2-1 in November 1999 with Bolton Wanderers in the second tier.
  • Billy Sharp has scored three goals in his last four home games for Sheffield United in all competitions, more than he had in his previous 19 at Bramall Lane (2).
  • Matheus Pereira has been directly involved in five of West Brom’s seven Premier League goals under manager Sam Allardyce, scoring four and assisting one.

WOLVES v ARSENAL

6pm Arsenal managed to hold Manchester United to a 0-0 draw at the weekend and they can add that to their list of lucky results this season. xG says United were unlucky not to win, creating an xG of 1.79 to Arsenal’s 0.90. Arsenal have come up short this season, however I don’t feel this is a fantastic chance to lay them. They are trading 2.36, and I’d prefer a small bet on the draw than laying them against this Wolves sides. Wolves just haven’t been themselves this season, and sit down in 14th without a win in their last eight Premier League games.

Backing Arsenal away from home at prices like this usually comes with a wealth warning, unless it’s Europa League football where they seemingly don’t bring their dodgy away form. However, I’m not keen to side with Wolves in their current form. They didn’t create much against Crystal Palace at the weekend – losing 1-0 and then they had a very boring 0-0 with Chelsea midweek. I feel Wolves won’t create much here, and there’s every chance this game could finish 0-0. I feel a small bet on the draw is worth having at 3.4 in what should be a close game with few chances.

The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.4 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwolarl

MATCH STATS

  • Following their 2-1 victory at the Emirates in the reverse fixture, Wolves are looking to complete their first league double over Arsenal since 1978-79.
  • Arsenal have won eight of their last 10 top-flight away games against Wolves (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 30 visits to Molineux (D8 L14).
  • Wolves have lost their last two Premier League home games, last losing three in a row at Molineux in November 2018.
  • Arsenal have won each of their last three Premier League away games, more than they had in their previous nine on the road (W2 D1 L6). The Gunners haven’t won four consecutive away league games since October 2016 under Arsène Wenger.
  • Wolves have kept just one clean sheet in their last 14 Premier League games, doing so in a goalless draw with Chelsea last month. Meanwhile, only Fulham (10) are on a longer current run without a Premier League victory than Wolves (8 – D3 L5).
  • Since Christmas Day, Arsenal have averaged 14.9 shots per Premier League game (5.7 on target), and have an expected goals (xG) average of 1.8 per game. Before Christmas the Gunners were averaging 10.4 shots per game (3.3 on target), with an xG average of 1.1.Before Christmas, the Gunners were averaging 10.4 shots per game (3.3 on target), with an xG average of 1.1.
  • Only Manchester City (13) have conceded fewer goals in the Premier League this season than Arsenal (20), who have shipped just one goal in their last six matches in the competition.
  • Since Raúl Jiménez last scored for Wolves at Molineux against Newcastle, eight of their 10 home goals in all competitions have been scored by different players: Rayan Ait Nouri, Daniel Podence x2, Pedro Neto x2, Roman Saiss, Adama Traore, Ruben Neves, Fabio Silva and Willy Boly.
  • Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka has been directly involved in four goals in his last three away Premier League games (2 goals, 2 assists), scoring in his last two. Saka could become the third youngest player in Premier League history to score in three consecutive away appearances (19y 150d), after Wayne Rooney in 2004 (18y 172d) and Robbie Fowler in 1994 (19y 133d).
  • Arsenal striker Alexandre Lacazette has scored in each of his last three Premier League away games, netting four goals in total. His previous four away goals in the competition came over a period of 25 games between March 2019 and December 2020.

MANCHESTER UNITED v SOUTHAMPTON

8.15pm Manchester United lost further ground at the top of the table at the weekend with a 0-0 draw against Arsenal. While most football fans where poking fun at United saying that their title challenge was over; I don’t think any shrewd football fan gave them a chance of winning. As I have been saying for weeks; they weren’t playing like Champions – they just feel into the position when other teams, mainly Liverpool, were busy throwing points away. Ironically, they were unlucky not to win both games which is funny because they were winning games they shouldn’t have prior to that – especially against Burnley. That’s football though, swings and roundabouts.

United have another tough fixture tonight, and the press will really go mental if they go three games without a win. Southampton have been rock solid this season, they lost to Villa at the weekend but they put in a brilliant performance. They created an xG of 2.51 and it was just very unlucky they didn’t score. If they play like that again tonight, there’s a good chance they can win. For my bet however, I’m happy to lay United at 1.55. That looks very short considering how both sides have performed this season, and United have struggled at home too. I fully expect a closer game than 1.55 suggests.

The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Southampton at 1.55 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmunsth

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester United are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League meetings with Southampton (W4 D5), though are looking to complete their first league double over them since their title winning campaign of 2012-13.
  • Having lost 13 of their first 14 Premier League away games against Man Utd (D1), Southampton have lost just two of their last seven visits to Old Trafford (W2 D3).
  • Manchester United have come from behind to win 10 different Premier League games against Southampton, including a 3-2 victory in the reverse fixture at St Mary’s this season. No side has come from behind to beat another more often in the competition’s history (Man Utd also 10 vs Newcastle).
  • Of all teams to have played at least 10 Premier League games in a specific month, no-one has a higher win rate than Manchester United do in February, with the Red Devils winning 68 of their 100 February games in the competition.
  • Manchester United have lost four of their 10 Premier League home games so far this season (W4 D2) – it’s already the third highest number of defeats the Red Devils have suffered in a single Premier League campaign, after 2001-02 (6) and 2013-14 (7).
  • Southampton have failed to score in each of their last two Premier League away games, having only failed to find the net in two of their previous 25 on the road. Saints last went three without scoring in October 2018 under Mark Hughes.
  • Manchester United have drawn four Premier League matches goalless this season – in only three previous seasons have they had more: five in 2015/16 and six in both 2004/05 and 2016/17.
  • Southampton have lost their last three Premier League games, more than they had in their previous 15 (W8 D5 L2). They last lost four in a row in the competition in April 2018.
  • Southampton midfielder James Ward-Prowse’s direct free-kick goal against Manchester United in the November meeting between the sides was the eighth direct free-kick scored in this Premier League fixture, the joint-most of any fixture in Premier League history along with Liverpool versus Man Utd.
  • Manchester United striker Edinson Cavani came off the bench to score twice and assist once against Southampton in their 3-2 win in November. The last Red Devils player to score 2+ goals in consecutive Premier League appearances against an opponent was Cristiano Ronaldo versus West Ham in October 2008.

NEWCASTLE v CRYSTAL PALACE

8.15pm We finish the evening with Newcastle hosting Crystal Palace after both sides won the weekend. Newcastle produced a surprise victory away to Everton at the weekend – that was a big surprise considering Everton have been impressive lately and Newcastle were playing some terrible football. They had a bit of cushion already at the bottom of the table, however with Brighton beating Spurs at the weekend too that gives them an extra cushion away from the bottom three. Newcastle were one of the sides who could have been caught, but it seems the bottom three have a lot of work to do now.

This should be a very tight game, and it’s no surprise to see such an open market. Indeed, it’s hard to have a very solid opinion. If Newcastle can play like they did against Everton at the weekend, then they should get the job done but trusting them to do that is another matter. Palace got back to winning ways at the weekend too; but that came against a Wolves side who have been out of sorts this season. The only thing I see here is a very close game between two sides who generally struggle to create chances. United 2.5 goals is worth backing at 1.74, but I couldn’t put anyone off the draw at 3.4 either.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.74 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnewcrl

MATCH STATS

  • Newcastle are looking to complete their first league double over Crystal Palace since the 2013-14 campaign, following their 2-0 win at Selhurst Park earlier this season.
  • Crystal Palace have lost three of their last four Premier League away games against Newcastle, winning the other in April 2019. All four of these games have finished in a 1-0 scoreline.
  • No side has kept fewer clean sheets at home than Newcastle in the Premier League this season (1), with that shutout coming against reigning champions Liverpool in December in a 0-0 draw.
  • Crystal Palace have failed to score in 10 of their last 14 Premier League away games (W3 D2 L9).
  • Newcastle United have only started a calendar year with defeats in each of their opening three home league matches once previously, doing so in 2014 in the Premier League.
  • Crystal Palace have kept three clean sheets in their last five Premier League matches, having kept just one in their previous 24 games in the competition.
  • Newcastle were beaten 2-1 in the Premier League last Tuesday against Leeds United and haven’t lost in the top-flight in consecutive weeks on a Tuesday since March 1975, losing to Arsenal and Liverpool.
  • All 10 of Callum Wilson’s Premier League goals for Newcastle this season have been scored in the second half – he is only the third player to score his first 10 goals in a season in the second half, after Matt Le Tissier in 1994/95 and Ashley Barnes in 2018/19, while he is the first player to score his first 10 goals for a club all in the second half.
  • All 10 of Callum Wilson’s Premier League goals for Newcastle this season have been scored in the second half – he is only the third player to score his first 10 goals in a Premier League season in the second half, after Matt Le Tissier in 1994/95 and Ashley Barnes in 2018/19, while he is the first player to score his first 10 goals for a club all in the second half.
  • Newcastle striker Callum Wilson has scored 10 goals in his 19 Premier League appearances for the club, reaching that tally in the 2-0 win over Everton. Wilson is the fastest English player – in terms of games – to reach double figures for Premier League goals for the Magpies since Alan Shearer in 1996 (10 in first 14).
  • Crystal Palace striker Jordan Ayew has assisted in each of his last two Premier League appearances, registering as many assists in those two games as in his previous 54 matches (2). However, Ayew hasn’t scored or assisted in any of his last 12 away games in the competition.

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