THE STRIKER: previews Tuesday’s Premier League games between MAN U v FULHAM, SOUTHAMPTON v LEEDS, BRIGHTON v MAN CITY and CHELSEA v LEICESTER all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
MANCHESTER UNITED V FULHAM
6pm We’re into the final week of the Premier League season and just like the season itself, we have a very busy week ahead! We squeeze in a full fixture list over Tuesday and Wednesday before the final day on Sunday. The title and relegation is already decided, but thankfully we have a few big games in the race for the Top Four. No doubt all eyes on BETDAQ Betting Exchange will be on Chelsea v Leicester later on, but we kick the evening off with Man United hosting Fulham. There’s no chance of United falling out of the Top Four, but they will want to lock in second and they can do that tonight. There’s probably no need to rest players for the Europa League Final here, but it would be nice to rest them in the final game on Sunday before the Europa League Final the following Wednesday night.
Fulham have finished the season poorly. Ever since they got within touching distance of Newcastle at the time in the battle to stay up, they have gone backwards. To be honest, they left themselves too much word to do and they were never going to hold their form for that long. United should get the job done here, but I wouldn’t be rushing to lump on them at 1.38. That price looks very fair. United have conceded six goals in their last two games here, and I know they rested players for the Leicester game but they conceded an xG of 3.73 against Liverpool. Fulham is a massive step down, but I wouldn’t rule out Fulham scoring either. Overs looks the best play here at 1.65, because United have been scoring plenty of goals too this season. You’d have to expect an open game – Fulham have no reason to stick XI behind the ball and United seem to be enjoying playing an open game at the moment.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmunful
MATCH STATS
● Manchester United have won 18 of their last 22 Premier League meetings with Fulham (D2 L2), and are unbeaten in their last 12 against them in the competition (W10 D2).
● Fulham have picked up just four points from 42 available in Premier League away games against Manchester United (W1 D1 L12), winning 3-1 in October 2003 and drawing 2-2 in February 2014.
● Fulham are winless in their last 16 Premier League matches against sides starting the day in the top two of the table (D2 L14) since beating Manchester United 3-0 at Craven Cottage in December 2009. Away from home, Fulham have won just one of their 21 such games (D4 L16), with this win also coming against Manchester United (3-1 in October 2003).
● Manchester United have lost their final home league game of the season in just one of the last 13 campaigns, doing so against Neil Warnock’s already relegated Cardiff City side in 2018-19.
● Manchester United’s Premier League games have seen more goals scored than any other side’s this season (112 – F70 A42). Meanwhile, Fulham’s games have seen fewer goals than any other’s this term (76 – F26 A50).
● Fulham are winless in their last nine midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (D4 L5), with their last such win coming at Brighton in January 2019.
● Manchester United have conceded 27 home goals in the Premier League this season – they last conceded more at Old Trafford in a single campaign back in 1962-63 (38).
● Manchester United have lost their last two Premier League home games – they’ve not lost three consecutive league games at Old Trafford since February 1979.
● Man Utd’s Paul Pogba has scored in both of his Premier League games against Fulham (3 goals in total), including the winner at Craven Cottage in the reverse fixture.
● Man Utd forward Marcus Rashford’s next goal will be his 100th in his senior career for club and country (88 for Manchester United, 11 for England). 50 of his 99 strikes so far have come at Old Trafford.
SOUTHAMPTON V LEEDS
6pm This is an interesting fixture, and it’s not a surprise to have the most open market of the evening. With both sides in mid-to-low table, there’s nothing to play for here. However, I’m sure Leeds would like to finish in the top ten – they start the week in 10th and if they could finish ahead of Arsenal that would be a decent achievement in their first season back in the Premier League. Leeds are finishing the season strongly too – they’ve scored seven goals in two games against Spurs and Burnley, but Southampton have scored six goals in two games against Crystal Palace and Fulham. This should be a good game to watch, and you’d assume we’ll have another open game without anything major to play for. There’s no reason why the sides wouldn’t attack, especially Leeds who generally do that anyway!
Although Leeds won 4-0 the weekend, the final result flattered them. They conceded an xG of 1.47 and they should have conceded a goal or two. I can’t get away from over 2.5 goals here at around 1.58. Even though Southampton beat Crystal Palace and Fulham impressively, they conceded a few chances along the way and with Leeds always conceding chances at the back, it’s hard to see how we don’t get goals in this one. Like I said in the above game, there’s no reason for sides to put XI behind the ball here so they will aim to enjoy themselves and attack. Leeds do that best anyway, and with Southampton’s confidence in front of goal boosted by their recent wins they can take some of the chances that Leeds will no doubt give them. I’d expect a lot of goals here, and we could see a very big score line!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsoulee
MATCH STATS
● Southampton have won five of their last six home league games against Leeds (L1), including each of the last three in a row. This is their first time hosting the Whites in the Premier League since a 2-1 victory in January 2004.
● Leeds are looking to complete their first league double over Southampton since 2005-06 (in the Championship), while they last did the Premier League double against Saints in 2001-02.
● Southampton have only lost their final home league game in two of the last 15 seasons (W9 D4), doing so in 2016-17 against Stoke and 2017-18 against Manchester City.
● Leeds have won four of their five midweek Premier League games this season (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), including both such games away from home (5-0 v West Brom, 2-1 v Newcastle).
● Southampton have won three of their last four Premier League home games (D1), more than they had in their previous 10 at St Mary’s (W2 D2 L6).
● Leeds have won nine of their 18 Premier League away games this season – they last reached double figures for away wins in a single top-flight campaign back in 1973-74, when they won the title (12).
● None of Leeds’ 18 Premier League away games have finished level this season, with the Whites winning nine and losing nine. They could become just the second side to finish a Premier League campaign with no away draws, after Tottenham in 2018-19.
● Southampton forward Che Adams has scored nine Premier League goals this season. The last Scottish player to reach double figures in a single campaign in the competition was Steven Fletcher in 2012-13 (11).
● Leeds’ Jack Harrison has been involved in six goals in his last seven Premier League games (2 goals, 4 assists). Indeed, only Patrick Bamford (15 goals, 7 assists) has been involved in more league goals for Leeds than Harrison this term (8 goals, 8 assists).
● Leeds striker Patrick Bamford has scored nine away goals in the Premier League this season. Only three Leeds players have reached double figures on the road in a single campaign in the competition – Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink in 1998-99 (10), Michael Bridges in 1999-00 (12) and Mark Viduka in 2002-03 (10).
BRIGHTON V MANCHESTER CITY
7pm The Champions Manchester City travel to take on Brighton in the next fixture, and I can see another open game here. I’m actually very surprised to see over 2.5 goals trading as big as 1.8! It looks like we’re almost having an overs Acca tonight! We landed Both Teams To Score with Newcastle and Man City at the weekend, and we had a massive score line with City winning 4-3 in the end. We could easily see something like that here as Brighton love attacking and playing an open game, so there’s no reason why this won’t be an end-to-end affair. Man City will of course have one eye on the Champions League Final coming up at the end of the month, and we could see some changes to the City XI this week if anyone has any niggles.
Brighton have been one of the most unlucky teams in Europe this season. Their performances have been impressive, the chances they have created have been off the charts but they find themselves in 17th position. The xG table gives them European football! It goes without saying that they need to buy a natural goal scorer during the summer, but for the moment anyway they just have to play their usual way and we should see an open game here. That’s why I’m surprised to see overs as big as 1.8 – I don’t think either side has to do anything different for the bet to collect. We know City will play an attacking game, and I feel this will be a very entertaining game. The 1.8 on over 2.5 goals has to be a Max Bet for me – I would have it closer to 1.5!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbhamnc
MATCH STATS
● Brighton have lost all seven of their Premier League meetings with Manchester City by an aggregate score of 21-2. The Seagulls have led for a grand total of 83 seconds in these games.
● Manchester City’s last league defeat against Brighton was in April 1989 in the second tier (1-2), while their last top-flight defeat against the Seagulls was in October 1981 (1-4).
● Since beating Crystal Palace 3-1 in December 2018, Brighton have taken just two points from their 27 available in Premier League games on a Tuesday (W0 D2 L7), with the Seagulls failing to score in each of the last four.
● Since losing against Chelsea in June 2020 to hand the Premier League title to Liverpool, Manchester City have taken 37 points from 39 available in midweek Premier League games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), winning 12 and drawing one of their 13 such matches.
● Brighton have won their final home league game in just one of the last six seasons (D2 L3), doing so against Manchester United in their maiden Premier League campaign of 2017-18.
● Manchester City haven’t lost their final away league game of the season since 2008-09 (1-2 vs Tottenham), winning nine and drawing two since. The Citizens have won their last four such games by an aggregate score of 11-1, including a 4-1 victory at Brighton in 2018-19.
● Against Newcastle, Manchester City set a new English league record for consecutive away wins, earning their 12th win in a row on the road. Indeed, the Citizens’ 12 away wins since December 19th is more than any other Premier League side has won away from home all season.
● Man City striker Sergio Agüero has scored in all four of his Premier League games against Brighton, netting five goals in total. In Premier League history, only Mohamed Salah has a higher 100% record of scoring in every game against an opponent (6 vs Bournemouth).
● Man City’s Raheem Sterling has been involved in five goals in four Premier League starts against Brighton (4 goals, 1 assist), scoring a hat-trick in this exact fixture last season.
● Man City’s Ferran Torres has netted five goals in his last four Premier League appearances, including a hat-trick at Newcastle last time out. The Spaniard had netted just twice in his first 18 games in the competition.
CHELSEA V LEICESTER
8.15pm It amazing how the fixture list can throw up situations like this! Chelsea and Leicester meet again quickly after their FA Cup Final at the weekend. Leicester came out on top in that one, and now this is another massive game with a Top Four finish at stake. Both sides will be looking over their shoulder at Liverpool, and they wouldn’t have enjoyed seeing Liverpool’s 95th minute winner against West Brom – that would have massively eased the pressure, but we’re heading for a final day Top Four thriller again. Leicester will be hoping for a different result to last season when they missed out on the final day – it’s fair to say this is a huge game. I know it’s great to win a trophy at the weekend and it really looked like Leicester enjoyed it, but Champions League football is huge these days with the players and money it brings, so you could argue this game is more important.
Although Leicester came out on top on Saturday, Chelsea deserved a draw and they probably created a little more than Leicester too. There wasn’t much in it, and a draw would have been a fair result. I really fancied Chelsea at 1.97, but the 1.77 looks a little short here. Home advantage doesn’t mean much these days, even with fans coming back to stadiums in a limited way and there really wasn’t much between the sides at the weekend. We could easily have a very cagey start to this game with so much at stake, and while the Chelsea lay could be a nice trading option in the first half – I also feel it’s a nice outright bet too. As always, it’s all about the odds and the 1.77 just looks too short – I fully expect the game to be closer than those odds reflect.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Leicester at 1.77 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQchllei
MATCH STATS
● Chelsea are winless in their last six Premier League meetings with Leicester (D4 L2), having won nine of their previous 11 against them in the competition (D1 L1).
● Leicester are looking to complete their first league double over Chelsea since the 2000-01 campaign.
● Leicester have won just two of their last 29 away league games against Chelsea (D11 L16), winning 1-0 in December 2018 and 2-0 in September 2000.
● Between them, Manchester United (13), Chelsea (5) and Manchester City (5) have won 79% of the Premier League titles (23/29). Leicester have already won at both Manchester clubs this season and could be just the second team to win away at all three in a single Premier League campaign after Liverpool in 2008-09.
● Chelsea have won just two of their seven midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games this season (D2 L3), failing to score in four of those games.
● Chelsea haven’t lost their final home league game in any of the last 18 seasons (W12 D6), since losing 3-1 against Aston Villa in the 2001-02 campaign.
● Leicester haven’t won their final away league game in any of the last six seasons (D2 L4), losing each of the last four in a row.
● Chelsea have conceded the first goal in their last two Premier League games, coming back to beat Man City before losing to Arsenal. The Blues had only conceded first in one of their first 15 league games under Thomas Tuchel (a 1-1 draw with Southampton).
● Victory for Leicester would ensure a top four finish for the Foxes for just the second time in the Premier League, after their 2015-16 title win. Brendan Rodgers would be just the second British manager to finish in the top four of the Premier League with two different clubs (also Liverpool), after Kenny Dalglish (Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle United).
● Leicester striker Kelechi Iheanacho has scored a Premier League goal on six different days of the week, with Tuesday the only day on which he’s failed so far. If he scores in this game, he’ll be the first player in Premier League history to score on all seven days of the week within a single season.
