TUESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Tuesday’s Premier League games between NEWCASTLE v NORWICH and LEEDS v CRYSTAL PALACE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
NEWCASTLE V NORWICH
7.30pm The Premier League fixtures just keep coming and we have an exceptionally busy run between now and Christmas. The top teams will be used to this heavy schedule, but we have a full midweek fixture list here, a weekend and then another full midweek fixture list after the Champions League. We’re going to have a lot of drama on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and these couple of weeks will see a lot of movement in the table. We start the week with two sides looking to move up the table as Newcastle host Norwich. To say that this is a massive game for both sides is an understatement I think. A win for Norwich would see them join Leeds on points, jump over Burnley and be only one point behind Watford, while a win for Newcastle would see them join Burnley and Norwich on nine points. Given the cash injection you’d expect to see from Newcastle in the transfer window, joining the other two wouldn’t be too bad for the time being. A loss for Newcastle here would be crippling, as you have to think who will want to join in January, even with a lot of money on the table.
Given these two sides take up 19th and 20th in the table, we can expect a reasonably low quality affair. It’s hard to see anything but a very close game here and to be honest I feel the odds are all wrong. Newcastle are odds on favourites trading 1.96 at the time of writing and I just can’t have them at odds on. Hindsight is a wonderful thing as they say, but the decision to sack Steve Bruce isn’t looking too good now – he was at least keeping the club steady with limited resources. They were never going to improve the squad until January, and if anything they have gone backwards looking at the xG figures. They’ve picked up three draws, but they were lucky in every game as they conceded a lot of chances. This seems an ideal time to support Norwich who come into the game off the back of three games unbeaten. They were lucky to beat Brentford and Southampton, but they actually played very well against Wolves at the weekend and should have won. Confidence is a funny thing, and a couple of good results can completely change the outlook! I feel Norwich come into this game on a high, and with both sides being very limited this season that might prove to be the difference. Whatever happens here, the odds are wrong in my opinion and I can’t have Newcastle odds on. They have to be a Max Bet lay for me.
The Striker Says:
Five points lay (liability) Newcastle to beat Norwich at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNewnor
MATCH STATS
● Newcastle are unbeaten in their last nine home league games against Norwich (W7 D2) since a 2-0 defeat in September 1988.
● Norwich have won two of their last three Premier League games against Newcastle (D1), as many as they had in their previous 10 against the Magpies in the competition (W2 D3 L5).
● Newcastle have lost six of their last eight midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (W1 D1), including each of their last three played on a Tuesday.
● Norwich have never won a Premier League game on a Tuesday before (D3 L11), with only West Bromwich Albion playing more games on a specific weekday without victory in the competition (32 on Tuesdays).
● Newcastle have conceded more goals than any other Premier League side this season (29) and remain winless in their 13 games so far. In Premier League history, only three clubs have ever failed to win any of their first 14 in a season, with all three suffering relegation that campaign (Swindon 1993-94, QPR 2012-13 and Sheffield United 2020-21).
● This will be Newcastle’s first Premier League home match when starting the day bottom of the table since October 2015, a game in which they beat Norwich City 6-2 with Georginio Wijnaldum scoring four times.
● Norwich have picked up seven points in their last three Premier League games (W2 D1), more than they had in their previous 25 in the competition (W1 D3 L21). They last went four games without defeat in the top-flight back in February 2013.
● Norwich picked up their first Premier League away win in almost two years at Brentford last time out. The Canaries last won back-to-back away games in the competition in January 2012, beating both QPR and West Bromwich Albion 2-1.
● In each of the last three league campaigns in which Newcastle and Norwich have met, there has been a hat-trick scored – Georginio Wijnaldum and Dwight Gayle for Newcastle (2015-16 and 2016-17 respectively), and Teemu Pukki for Norwich in 2019-20.
● Norwich manager Dean Smith is unbeaten in all five of his Premier League games against Newcastle (W3 D2), already beating them 2-0 with Aston Villa this season. However, Smith has lost both of his previous Premier League games against current Newcastle boss Eddie Howe.
LEEDS V CRYSTAL PALACE
8.15pm We have another intriguing game here from a betting point of view as Leeds host Crystal Palace. You could say that this is another big clash towards the bottom of the table, but Crystal Palace are sitting in 11th position! However, they actually aren’t that far away from the danger zone. If Norwich beat Newcastle and Crystal Palace lose, Norwich will only be four points behind Crystal Palace. There could be a lot of sides in the relegation battle this season. Crystal Palace have shown that they have enough quality to avoid that situation however, and it’s Leeds that should be worried. They start this game sitting in 17th, and a win for Norwich would see them join Leeds on 12 points, while Burnley are three points behind Leeds but have a game in hand. When you look at the Leeds squad you’d feel that they are much too good to go down, but they have been so poor this season – they’ve had so many issues at the back that they are going to drop so many points over the course of the season. I highlighted above what a big run this could be for sides with so many fixtures coming up to Christmas, well for Leeds it really could make or break their season.
It’s no surprise to see an open market, and you can understand Leeds being favourites with home advantage. They played out a 0-0 draw away to Brighton at the weekend, where ironically the Brighton fans boo’d at the end of the game. Brighton actually played very well, they created a much bigger xG – more than double that of Leeds – and that has to go down as one of the more strange reactions from a crowd this season! The reality is however that Leeds still conceded another big xG, and it’s hard to see them fixing their issues at the back any time soon. When they aren’t attacking or getting a lot of ball – they are just going to be under pressure at the back. Palace were a little unlucky to lose against Aston Villa at the weekend, and while I feel this is a game for small stakes, the value play is the Leeds lay at 2.5. They give away so many chances, Palace can get a result here. It’s hard to have any faith in Leeds at the moment.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Leeds to beat Crystal Palace at 2.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeecry
MATCH STATS
● Leeds have won each of their last five home league games against Crystal Palace, since a 1-0 defeat in the Championship in March 2006.
● In the Premier League, Crystal Palace have lost four of their last six meetings with Leeds, winning the other two in August 1997 (2-0) and November 2020 (4-1).
● This is the first top-flight meeting between Leeds and Crystal Palace with the Eagles above the Whites in the table since March 1991 – third placed Crystal Palace won 2-1 against fourth placed Leeds at Elland Road with goals from Ian Wright and John Salako.
● Since their return to the Premier League last season, Leeds have won five of their six midweek games in the competition (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), winning all four of their games on a Tuesday.
● Crystal Palace have won just one of their last 12 midweek (Tue, Wed, Thu) Premier League games (D4 L7), winning 2-1 at Newcastle in February last season.
● Leeds have scored just six goals in their six Premier League home games this season, having averaged 1.5 goals-per-game at Elland Road last season. Indeed, only in 1996-97 (0.8) have the Whites averaged a goal or fewer per home game across a complete Premier League campaign.
● Crystal Palace are unbeaten in their last three Premier League away games (W1 D2), scoring at least twice each time (7 goals in total). The Eagles haven’t scored 2+ goals in four consecutive Premier League away games since January 2019.
● Crystal Palace have scored at least once in each of their last eight league games, last having a longer run between January and March 2019 (11 games).
● Leeds are one of just four sides yet to score more than twice in a single Premier League game this season, along with Brighton, Norwich and Southampton.
● In Premier League history, only Alan Shearer (15) and Wayne Rooney (13) have scored more goals on Tuesdays than Crystal Palace striker Christian Benteke (12).
