TUESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Tuesday’s Premier League game between SOUTHAMPTON v LIVERPOOL with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
SOUTHAMPTON V LIVERPOOL
7.45pm The massive Premier League games just keep coming on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! Southampton host Liverpool on Tuesday night with Liverpool hoping to put as much pressure as possible on Manchester City heading into the final day on Sunday. Manchester City had a chance to close the door to the title race on Sunday given their positive goal difference, but we saw a thrilling 2-2 with City missing a chance to win the game from 2-0 down from the penalty spot too. While Liverpool are still unlikely to win the title, their chances have around about doubled after that draw – they are still trading 8.0+ for the title though.
The task for Liverpool is pretty simple. They have to win here and then beat Wolves on the final day – and then hope Aston Villa can take points off Manchester City? If you were writing a script for Liverpool, you’d definitely put Steven Gerrard as manager of the side facing City on the final day! City have been so good at home this season it’s hard to see them dropping points, but you would have also said that prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, Liverpool need to win tonight to push the title race to the last day so that’s the only thing they can focus on at the moment.
They had to go through extra time and penalties to beat Chelsea in the FA Cup at the weekend, and although that would have taken a lot out of the players, winning gives you such a boost you forget about being tired. Although we could have drama score line wise, how much drama have we seen with Liverpool this season after all, I don’t see any shocks here. This seems an ideal time to face Southampton as they finish the season very poorly. They are without a win in their last five, and they only have recorded one win in their last ten Premier League – a reasonably lucky win 1-0 here against Arsenal while conceding an xG of 1.73.
They were comfortably outplayed by Brentford and Crystal Palace in their last two games, and while their performances have been better at home compared to away they have lost to Watford and Newcastle here in this run. Southampton weren’t getting results while playing decent football in March, but since the 6-0 loss to Chelsea here they have been playing very average football. They have conceded high xG figures, and usually created about half of what they have conceded in their recent games.
Looking at those stats, it’s hard to see anything bar a Liverpool win here. Southampton conceded three against Brentford, two against Crystal Palace, Brighton and Burnley – and when you consider just how good Liverpool are going forward that only spells trouble here. I highlighted the fact that Liverpool weren’t exactly firing going into the FA Cup Final and we landed a nice bet on under 2.5 goals. They grinded out a win away to Aston Villa and didn’t create as much as they usually do against Spurs. I wouldn’t mind backing under 2.5 goals again here, but I just don’t see Southampton playing well enough to stop Liverpool here.
Liverpool can find their goal scoring touch again, and an early goal could see plenty follow. That point for City at the weekend means the goal difference doesn’t really come into things anymore, but given how poor Southampton have been at the back recently I can still see a lot of goals from Liverpool. I couldn’t put anyone off them at 1.41, and I wouldn’t mind backing them to cover the 1.5 goal handicap either but I’m going to take a chance here and go for Any Other Away Win at 4.3 in the Correct Score market. Liverpool will get the chances to score four or more here, Southampton are finishing the season very poorly.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Away Win Correct Score at 4.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouLiv
MATCH STATS
● Southampton won this exact fixture 1-0 last season, with Saints last winning consecutive home league games against Liverpool between March 2004 and March 2013 (three in a row).
● Liverpool have won eight of their last nine league games against Southampton, netting at least twice in each victory. However, the exception was a 1-0 defeat in this exact fixture last season.
● Southampton’s eight home Premier League wins over Liverpool have been won by eight different managers (Branfoot, Ball, Strachan, Sturrock, Redknapp, Pochettino, Koeman & Hasenhüttl). The last Saints manager to win consecutive home league games against Liverpool was Chris Nicholl, in 1989-90 and 1990-91.
● Southampton have lost their final home league game in three of the last five seasons (W1 D1), going down 2-0 against Leeds last season. Saints had only lost their final such home game in three of the previous 30 campaigns.
● Liverpool have won seven of their eight midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games this season (L1). However, one of their two defeats overall in the competition this term came on a Tuesday (0-1 v Leicester).
● Southampton’s 3-0 loss at Brentford last time out means they’ve now conceded at least 60 goals in each of their last four Premier League campaigns – they’d only conceded 60+ in four of their previous 16 38-game seasons in the competition.
● Southampton have won just one of their last 10 Premier League games (D2 L7), with their 1-0 victory against Arsenal last month also their only clean sheet in this run.
● Liverpool have conceded the first goal in their last two Premier League games, coming back to draw 1-1 with Tottenham and beat Aston Villa 2-1. They last conceded first in three consecutive games while avoiding defeat each time back in October/November 2019, during their title winning campaign.
● Liverpool have scored a league-high 15 headed Premier League goals this season, while only Leicester have conceded more headers than Southampton this term.
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been involved in 10 goals in nine Premier League games against Southampton (7 goals, 3 assists), averaging a goal or assist every 79 minutes against them.
