PREMIER LEAGUE TUESDAY: The Striker previews Tuesday’s match between TOTTENHAM v MAN CITY with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
TOTTENHAM V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm We have a huge game on Tuesday night in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as Spurs host Manchester City. A win for Arsenal on Sunday afternoon against Manchester United put them top again, but this was always going to be the crucial fixture in the title race this season as it’s Manchester City’s game in hand. They are one point behind Arteta’s men at the moment, and a win would put them top heading into the final day on Sunday. Manchester City are at home to West Ham and they will be an exceptionally short price to win, while Arsenal are at home to Everton.
We have the fascinating situation of the side who can put Arsenal in the driving seat for their first Premier League title in 20 years is their most bitter rivals Spurs. It’s hard to believe you have to go back to the Invincibles season in 2003/04 for Arsenal’s last title but obviously they have been through a lot since then. We are going to have to deal with all the Spurs motivation questions here – I feel that angle will depend on the Aston Villa v Liverpool result on Monday night because depending on that result, Spurs might still have a chance at finishing fourth.
It’s not a surprise to see Manchester City come into this game trading as the red-hot favourites – they are 1.4 at the time of writing with Spurs 7.4 and the draw is 6.2 at the time of writing. There’s no question here who is the better side, but you have to say Spurs have turned into a bogey side for City while Guardiola is there. Spurs have managed to stop City winning in six of the last ten meetings which goes back to 2020. That’s quite a stat when you consider how short City would have been to win those games – it’s basically at the same level as someone like Liverpool results wise. I know when you look at the xG figures you can say that Spurs have been lucky, but they just seemingly find a way against City.
With home advantage here for Spurs, I wouldn’t be rushing to lump on City at 1.4. The major issue from a Spurs point of view however is that they have been so sloppy at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.4 which is what has them out of the Top Four, because their attacking figure of 1.78 is the fourth best in the Premier League, but not only are they conceding chances they are also conceding more goals than they should be. Their average goals conceded works out at 1.64 – sloppy is the best way to describe Spurs at the back. A mistake is never far away, and you just know that City will get chances here.
In the past we’ve had games when City have finished with an xG over 3.0 and Spurs have managed a 1-0 win! Perhaps the pressure can get to them here, but I feel that’s the only thing stopped City here. They have an average xG created this season of 2.22 which is the best attacking figure in the Premier League, and as I said a mistake is never far away with Spurs. I expect City to win, but from a value point of view it’s hard to make the case that City should be massively shorter than 1.4 – it’s hard to say that they should be 1.3 for example! I think this game screams goals, and Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.31 so the market is expecting an open game too! Over 3.5 goals looks an appealing price at 1.83 however, and that looks a nice position in what should be a very open game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 3.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TtmMci
