PREMIER LEAGUE TUESDAY: The Striker previews WEST HAM v NOTTINGHAM FOREST with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WEST HAM V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
8pm The hectic fixture list continues on Betdaq Betting Exchange with another full midweek schedule in the Premier League! It’s always been hectic around the New Year period, but this year it feels like we’re going even quicker and it’s been a massive time for some sides. We have a huge relegation battle on Tuesday night with all the focus on West Ham hosting Nottingham Forest. Both sides lost at the weekend, and this has become the biggest game of the season for West Ham after losing 3-0 at Wolves on Saturday.
That was the first win of the season for Wolves, and now it almost feels like the writing is on the wall for West Ham. A few weeks ago, it looked like that final relegation spot would be between Leeds and West Ham – now with Leeds moving away from the bottom three, West Ham really only have Nottingham Forest within touching distance. Forest have a four point advantage at the moment – with home advantage, I don’t think it’s too dramatic to call this a must win game for West Ham otherwise their season is over. Forest obviously had a jump in form when Sean Dyche came in, but they have put together four losses in a row. However, you could have point to the run Wolves have been on this season before the weekend!
Of course, anyone who likes looking at xG figures knew the warning signs have been flashing for West Ham for some time. They were steady under David Moyes and maybe they wanted more than just staying in low-to-mid table in the Premier League after winning their first major trophy in the Europa Conference League, but since they sacked him they have been woeful at the back. They have an average xG conceded of 1.77 which is the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season – only Burnley have conceded more chances by 0.01. Not only that, the Hammers are in the bottom four on attacking figures too; put that together and that’s relegation standard.
While Forest haven’t been getting the results this season, they are playing much better football. Their average xG created is 1.45 which is a mid-table figure in the Premier League; they are conceding what they are creating which generally puts you in mid-table in any major European league. Ironically, they are playing better than when they got European football last season – expectations rose by the owner and he has made some trigger happy decisions this season that has basically derailed the club. We have an interesting game here – while it’s massive for West Ham, both sides are in desperate need of a win.
We have a reasonably open betting heat – Nottingham Forest come into the game as the favourites at 2.4 with West Ham 3.25 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. It’s hard to have a lot of confidence in either side here to be honest, but you’d definitely lean towards Forest given how poor West Ham have been. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here because Over 2.5 goals catches my eye at 2.0. Both sides have been quite sloppy at the back this season and while you could call them limited in attack; I expect plenty of mistakes here and I’d have Overs as the favourite.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLWeNo
