WEDNESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews BOURNEMOUTH v LUTON TOWN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOURNEMOUTH V LUTON TOWN
7.30pm While the UK Sporting Public might be focused on the Cheltenham Festival this week, we have a massive Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange too. Bournemouth host Luton in a game that’s going to have a huge impact on the relegation battle. Everyone will remember this game from earlier in the season – it was stopped in the 59th minute with the sides locked at 1-1 when Luton captain Tom Lockyer went into cardiac arrest. Obviously it was the correct decision given the circumstances, and since then the fixture has took on more importance given the situation in the relegation battle – thankfully Tom Lockyer made a good recovery too!
After the results at the weekend, Luton are three points behind Nottingham Forest. It’s an absolutely huge few days for Luton; they play their game in hand here and then they play Forest at the weekend too. They could find themselves in a superb position by the end of the weekend, or long odds on to go down again! In fairness to Luton they were wrote off at the start of the season; whatever happens from here they have got themselves into the mix to stay up and given themselves a chance. That’s a lot more than Burnley have managed – and when you compare the sides at the start of the season everyone felt Burnley would stay up too.
Bournemouth have been playing good football this season, but they have been leaking a lot of chances and goals too. They have created a lot more than previous seasons, but obviously playing an open game will get you caught out multiple times too. Bournemouth come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.53 with Luton 6.4 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing. I expected Bournemouth to be the favourites, but I wasn’t expecting to see them trading as short as 1.53 when I clicked into the market. That feels like a very short price indeed; I know Luton have been playing average football this season but Bournemouth aren’t solid at the back.
They had to settle for a 2-2 draw here at the weekend against Sheffield United, and they have been the worst side in the Premier League this season. Bournemouth’s average xG conceded is reasonably high at 1.58, but they have conceded more goals than that – their actual goals conceded average is 1.81. They just make too many mistakes at the back. Luton have been poor at the back too; they have a higher average xG conceded than Bournemouth. I’m going to keep stakes limited here because Luton are a limited side themselves, but Bournemouth will give them chances here and I just feel we’ll see a game that is closer than the odds reflect. From a value point of view, I’m happy with the Bournemouth lay – I would have them higher than 1.53.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Bournemouth to beat Luton Town at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BneLut
