THE STRIKER: previews Wednesday’s Carabao Cup action between NEWPORT COUNTY V NEWCASTLE and BRIGHTON v MANCHESTER UNITED – both previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
NEWPORT COUNTY V NEWCASTLE
5.30pm All eyes will be on Brighton v Manchester United later but the Carabao Cup action begins at 5.30pm on Sky Sports with Newport County hosting Newcastle. Newport County have won their last four games, although they play at a much lower level than Newcastle, they will surely have gained confidence by beaten Watford 3-1 and with nothing to lose against a Premier League club, they can have a go here. Newcastle benefitted from a crazy penalty decision at the weekend against Spurs, but we should see them make a few changes to the starting XI this evening.
I don’t have a high opinion of Newcastle as their xG numbers have been very bad for quite a while. You could argue they should have gone down last season they were that bad – but they had luck on their side. That being said, we have to consider the gulf in class between the sides and Newcastle beat Morecambe, another League Two sides, 7-0 last week. Morecambe finished 14 points between Newport County last season, but Newport could only manage 14th themselves. For me, Newcastle outclass a League Two side again and at 1.46 they are worth backing.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Newcastle to beat Newport County at 1.46 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQNewNew
MATCH STATS
- This will be the fourth-ever competitive meeting between Newport County and Newcastle, and the first since a 4-2 win for the Exiles in June 1947 in the second tier.
- Newcastle have scored 21 goals in their three previous competitive meetings with Newport, with the Magpies’ biggest ever competitive victory in their history coming against them in a second tier match in October 1946 (13-0).
- This is Newport’s first ever League Cup fourth round match – they are looking to become the second League Two club in as many seasons to reach the League Cup quarter-final, after Colchester last season.
- Newcastle have won 14 of their last 17 League Cup ties against sides from a lower division, with their 7-0 win at Morecambe in the last round the Magpies’ biggest ever competitive away victory.
- Newcastle had three players both score and assist a goal in their 7-0 win at Morecambe in the last round – Miguel Almirón, Jamaal Lascelles and Jacob Murphy.
BRIGHTON V MANCHESTER UNITED
7.45pm Isn’t it remarkable how the fixture list throws situations like this out every so often? Brighton v United was the most talked about game on Saturday in the Premier League as United won the game with a penalty in the 100th minute. You don’t get much more dramatic than that. Having said that, Spurs v Newcastle did a good job of taking the headlines on Sunday! Clearly we’re going to see changes here, but United are a shorter price to win tonight than they were at the weekend.
I can’t have the odds here, and I’m very happy to lay United at 1.91. Brighton won on xG 2.93 to 1.92 at the weekend, and that includes a penalty which accounts for 0.8. I noted before that game and last week in this competition, it’s worrying how little United create without penalties these days. I fully expect a closer game than 1.91 on United suggests, with Brighton out-playing them at the weekend – they can do it again tonight. They could field a stronger XI than United too as they look for quick revenge.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Brighton at 1.91 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBhaMnu
MATCH STATS
- This is just the second League Cup tie between Brighton and Manchester United, with the Red Devils winning 2-1 on aggregate over two legs in the second round in 1992-93.
- Brighton have lost their last five League Cup meetings with Premier League opponents, since beating Sunderland 1-0 in August 2011.
- Only once in their history have Brighton reached the League Cup quarter-final, doing so in 1978-79 before being eliminated by eventual winners Nottingham Forest.
- Manchester United have kept a clean sheet in three of their last four League Cup games, as many as they had in their previous 12 in the competition. Meanwhile, they’ve not failed to score in any of their last 16 League Cup games.
- Alireza Jahanbakhsh has been involved in 50% of Brighton’s League Cup goals this season, scoring twice and assisting one of the Seagull’s six goals.
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