PREMIER LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Striker looks ahead to Wednesday’s Premier League clash between MAN U and LEEDS with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER UNITED V LEEDS
8pm We have midweek Premier League action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week as Manchester United host Leeds. This is a fierce rivalry, mainly driven by both sets of fans, but this is a huge fixture for both sides. Another loss at the weekend for Leeds, this time against Nottingham Forest, has put them slap-bang in the relegation battle again – especially with Everton beating Arsenal. And then speaking of Everton beating Arsenal, with Spurs also beating Manchester City does that mean Manchester United are still “involved” in the title race?
Whatever way you look at this, it’s a game neither side can afford to lose. It’s remarkable sometimes how the fixture list works out because the sides will meet again on Sunday too, it’s going to be a big week for both of them! Manchester United kick off eight points behind Arsenal which is a lot, but I suppose everyone is expecting Arsenal to start choking soon! The way they are playing, it’s hard to see that – but the Everton loss might kick off a bit of panic in the dressing room. Although Manchester City also losing the weekend helps that. United just have to keep winning the see what happens, the reality is a Top Four finish in ten Hag’s first season would be a great achievement and he seems to be trying to change the poor culture in the club too.
Leeds will say that they were unlucky to lose at the weekend against Nottingham Forest. They finished the game with an xG of nearly three times what they conceded, but in fairness both sides had low figures and Leeds just didn’t take their chances. It was the same old story with Leeds. The away side have been conceding an average xG of 1.8 per Premier League game this season which is a very high figure – you don’t win many games conceding two goals! Another huge negative for Leeds here is that they have been very poor away from home too. They’ve only managed five points away from home this season, which is the joint lowest return in the Premier League along with Bournemouth.
With home advantage, Manchester United come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are currently trading 1.5 at the time of writing, and I’m sure they’ll be a very popular selection at that price given how poor Leeds have been away from home this season. United seem to be in a really good place at the moment under ten Hag, although the Caserimo red card at the weekend is a big blow because he’s such a good player. When he was missing against Arsenal United were totally outplayed.
When you look at the Leeds xG figures, you can’t help but notice how open their games are. They create an average xG of 1.5 per Premier League game and as I said above, concede 1.8. I can’t see them sitting back for a draw here, and I would expect a very end-to-end game. United have been scoring plenty of goals under ten Hag, and Over 2.5 goals looks a very good option at 1.62. I’m also keen on the United win at 1.5, but I see more value in Overs – these two should really gel together well for a very entertaining game.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunLee
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Man Utd have lost just one of their last 17 Premier League games against Leeds (W11 D5), a 1-0 away loss in September 2002.
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2020, only against Man City (16) have Leeds conceded more league goals than they have against Manchester United (15).
● Leeds are winless in their last 17 away league games against Man Utd (D6 L11), since a 1-0 victory in February 1981. Only at West Ham (18 between 1921 and 1956) have the Whites ever had a longer winless run in their league history.
● After winning six of their first seven midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games following their return to the division in 2020 (L1), Leeds are now winless in their last nine such games (D3 L6). They scored 19 and conceded five in those first seven, but have scored seven and conceded 30 in the last nine.
● Manchester United have won their last 13 games at Old Trafford in all competitions, their longest winning home run since a club record run of 20 between December 2010 and September 2011.
● Leeds are winless in their last seven Premier League games (D3 L4), the longest current run without a victory in the competition. Meanwhile, since the start of last season the Whites have taken just one point from their eight games against sides starting the day in the top three (D1 L7).
● Manchester United will be without the suspended Casemiro for this match – the Red Devils have lost three of their four games in which the Brazilian has played no part this season in all competitions, as many defeats as they’ve suffered in the 30 games in which he has played (W24 D3 L3).
● Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes has been involved in eight goals in his four Premier League games against Leeds (6 goals, 2 assists), more than he has vs any other opponent.
● Marcus Rashford has scored in each of his last five Premier League home games – the last Manchester United to score in six consecutive league appearances at Old Trafford was Wayne Rooney in April 2012.
● Since his Premier League debut at the end of October, Wilfried Gnonto has created more chances (13), won more fouls (20) and completed more dribbles (11) in the Premier League than any other Leeds player.
