THE STRIKER: previews Wednesday’s Premier League games between MANCHESTER CITY v NEWCASTLE, SHEFFIELD UNITED v WOLVES, WEST HAM v BURNLEY and BRIGHTON v LIVERPOOL – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

MANCHESTER CITY V NEWCASTLE

6pm Manchester City suffered a shock when losing to Southampton at the weekend and that came from nowhere. City had thrashed Liverpool and Southampton were bottom of the table on home form. In fairness, City battered them on xG. City are as short as 1.15 to get the job done here and that’s not a price I would be jumping on towards the end of the season. That said however, Newcastle have been very poor this season and have conceded 30 goals (in line with xG) away from home. An early City goal could see the floodgates open.

It’s going to be an interesting dynamic with City towards the end of the season as to when they switch their focus to the Champions League. Many pundits might suggest they took their eye off the ball against Southampton, but they created an xG of 3.53 and it’s just one of those things that they didn’t score! I expect City to get back to winning ways here and they can do a number on this Newcastle side. Any Other Home Win is 2.9 in the Correct Score market and that is worth a small bet.

The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win (Correct Score) at 2.9 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQmcinew

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 15 home league games against Newcastle (W13 D2), winning the last 10 in a row – they’ve never won 11 successive home games against an opponent in their top-flight history.
  • Newcastle are unbeaten in their last two Premier League games against Man City (W1 D1), having lost 15 of their 16 against them previously (D1). They’re looking to avoid defeat in both league meetings with the Citizens for the first time since 2004-05.
  • Manchester City have won their last four home Premier League matches by an aggregate score of 14-0. They haven’t kept five consecutive home clean sheets in the competition since September 2011 under Roberto Mancini.
  • Newcastle are looking to win three consecutive away Premier League matches for the first time since December 2001, when they beat Ipswich, Arsenal and Leeds to top the Premier League.
  • Manchester City have lost nine Premier League games in 2019-20 – their highest total in a season since 2015-16 under Manuel Pellegrini (10 defeats).
  • Newcastle have scored 10 goals in their last four Premier League games – their previous 10 goals came across a period of 14 games.
  • Newcastle United are unbeaten in six Premier League matches (W3 D3), last enjoying a longer undefeated run in the competition between May and November 2011 (14 unbeaten).
  • Manchester City have made a league-high 120 changes to their starting XI in the Premier League this season, including six changes last time out. Indeed, City failed to score against Southampton despite having 26 shots – they last failed to score in consecutive Premier League games in March 2016.
  • Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been directly involved in 28 goals in 28 Premier League starts this season (11 goals, 17 assists), with the Belgian scoring or assisting 15 times in his last 14 starts in the top-flight.
  • In his first 40 Premier League appearances, Newcastle’s Miguel Almirón scored just two goals from 64 attempts at goal – since then, the Paraguayan has scored in back to back games, scoring twice from five shots against Bournemouth and West Ham.

SHEFFIELD UNITED V WOLVES

6pm After an impressive win against Spurs, Sheffield United went backwards with a draw against Burnley. I thought we would collect our Burnley bet at 3.0 for a long time but a 1-1 draw was a very fair result and there can be no arguments. Wolves suffered a big setback with a loss to Arsenal at the weekend, especially as they were just getting into the Top Four argument. A 2-0 win for Arsenal wasn’t a very fair result as there wasn’t much in the game but it was disappointing Wolves couldn’t grind it out as Arsenal usually lose those types of games.

I feel Wolves will get the job done this evening, however I don’t like their odds at 2.2 at the moment. That looks more than a little short even allowing for Sheffield United being out of form. Sheffield United games have seen plenty of goal action and with Wolves needing to win I’m very surprise to see over 2.5 goals as big as 2.86. Both sides have been solid at the back, Sheffield United at home and Wolves away, so perhaps that’s why overs is so big but at the odds it’s definitely worth a small investment given the make-up of this fixture.

The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 2.86 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQshewol

MATCH STATS

  • Sheffield United have won just one of their last eight league games against Wolves (D3 L4), though it was in their last home game against them in September 2017 (2-0).
  • Wolves have won two of their last three away league games against Sheffield United, more than they had in their previous 16 visits (W1 D7 L8).
  • Sheffield United are looking for three consecutive home wins in the Premier League for the first time since August 1993.
  • Wolves are looking to win four consecutive away top-flight games for the first time since a run of five in April 1980.
  • Wolves have only lost back-to-back Premier League games twice this season, in September against Everton and Chelsea, and in January against Liverpool and Watford. However, Wolves have won six of their last seven league games against promoted sides (D1).
  • Wolves defender Conor Coady has played the full 90 minutes in all 71 Premier League matches since the start of last season – this is the longest run by an outfield player since Cesar Azpilicueta did so in 74 consecutive games for Chelsea between 2015 and 2017.
  • In their first match back after the restart, Wolves had six shots on target in their 2-0 win against West Ham. They’ve managed just five across their three subsequent league games, with their only effort on target in their last game coming after 17 seconds.
  • Sheffield United have given 22,740 minutes to British players in the Premier League this season, with only Burnley giving more (25,615). By contrast, opponents Wolves have given a league-low 3,886 minutes to players from Britain.
  • Jack Rodwell made his first Premier League appearance since May 2017 in Sheffield United’s 1-1 draw at Burnley – he is the 22nd British or Irish player to appear for the Blades in the Premier League this season, more than any other club.
  • Wolves’ Adama Traoré has provided a club-high nine Premier League assists this season. He could become the sixth different Spanish player to register at least 10 assists in a single Premier League season, after Jose Antonio Reyes, Cesc Fàbregas, David Silva, Juan Mata and Santi Cazorla.

WEST HAM V BURNLEY

6pm West Ham have been collecting points recently and that massive win against Chelsea put a little bit of distance between themselves and the bottom three. They should have beaten Newcastle at the weekend too, creating an xG of over 2. xG also says that they beat Chelsea fair and square with an xG of 2.38 to 1.67. Where this new attacking West Ham has come from is anyones guess, but if they keep creating these chances they will easily climb the table to safety.

Burnley will be a solid test, as they are a very tight side and don’t see many goals in their games. Since losing 5-0 to Manchester City, they have only conceded once in three games. They have been reasonably lucky to do so – certainly Palace should have scored against them and looking at recent form now is a good time to back West Ham. If they play anywhere close to their last two games, then they will easily outscore this Burnley side and I’m happy to get involved.

The Striker Says:
Two points win West Ham to beat Burnley at 2.2 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwesbur

MATCH STATS

  • Having won five of their first six Premier League meetings with Burnley (L1), West Ham have won just one of their subsequent five against the Clarets (D1 L3).
  • Burnley have won three of their last four Premier League games against West Ham (L1), keeping a clean sheet in each victory.
  • West Ham have avoided defeat in consecutive Premier League games (W1 D1) for the first time since going six unbeaten in August and September 2019.
  • Burnley have won just 16 points in 31 away Premier League matches in London (W4 D4 L23) – however, the Clarets won on their last visit to the capital last month at Crystal Palace.
  • After a run of just one win in 10 home league games (D3 L6), West Ham have won two of their last three at the London Stadium (L1). The Hammers are averaging two goals-per-game at home in the Premier League since David Moyes returned, netting at least three goals in four of their seven such games.
  • Burnley have won three of their last five Premier League away games (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 16 on the road (W3 D4 L9).
  • West Ham are on a run of 13 Premier League matches without a clean sheet – only Bournemouth (16) are on a longer current run without a shutout. They last had a worse run back in December 2009 (15 games).
  • Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored in all five of his Premier League games against West Ham (6 goals in total) – only Mohamed Salah against Bournemouth (6/6) has a better 100% scoring record against an opponent in the competition.
  • West Ham’s Michail Antonio has been directly involved in five goals in his last six Premier League appearances (3 goals, 2 assists). Antonio is looking to score in three consecutive appearances for the first time since September 2016.
  • Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored in four of his five Premier League starts in games played on a Wednesday and has scored in both of his starts on a Wednesday this season (against Aston Villa and Man Utd in January).

BRIGHTON V LIVERPOOL

8.15pm Looking at the Liverpool fixture list, they were always going to have a massive say in the relegation battle. Brighton took themselves out of the mix with a 1-0 win against Norwich at the weekend, but it would be a huge boost if they could get something from this game. I noted before Liverpool v Aston Villa that Liverpool would be tricky to read at the moment and I don’t think we learned anything from that performance. They were lacklustre and it could have easily finished a draw. A confident side would have beaten them.

Obviously they have the talent to win from anywhere, against anyone, but I still feel at the moment they have enjoyed their title success too much and shouldn’t be backed unless they offer huge value. A 1.58 to win away against a side still battling to stay up, they are way too short and although I lost in their fixture at the weekend, I’m happy to have a small lay on them at the odds tonight. Their xG was very poor against Villa, and if they keep playing like that it will be good value to oppose them.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Liverpool at 1.58 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQbriliv

MATCH STATS

  • Brighton have lost each of their last eight meetings with Liverpool in all competitions, including all five games in the Premier League.
  • Liverpool are unbeaten in all six of their top-flight away games against Brighton (W3 D3), with both teams finding the net in five of those six meetings.
  • Brighton have won two of their four Premier League games since the restart (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 18 (W2 D8 L8). The Seagulls are looking to pick up back- to-back wins in the competition for the first time since November.
  • Liverpool have won 29 of their 33 Premier League games this season – should they beat Brighton, they will have reached 30 wins in a season faster than any team in the history of English league football, with Man City holding the record in 2017-18 (35 games).
  • Brighton have lost all four of their previous Premier League matches against teams starting the day top of the table. Their last top-flight win over a side top of the table was back in December 1980, beating Aston Villa 1-0 with a goal from Michael Robinson.
  • Liverpool have failed to score in any of their last five away matches in all competitions (D1 L4) – they are without a goal in their last seven hours and 42 minutes away from home. Only once in their history have the Reds gone more away games without a goal (8 games in April 1992 under Graeme Souness).
  • Brighton have scored 35 Premier League goals this season, equalling their tally from last season with five games remaining. It is one more than they scored in their first season in the competition in 2017-18 (34).
  • At the start of this matchday, Brighton are nine points clear of the relegation zone. It is the furthest ahead of the relegation zone the Seagulls have been all season, and the furthest since January 12th 2019, when they were 10 points ahead of 18th position.
  • Liverpool’s Sadio Mané has scored against 28 of the 30 opponents he faced in the Premier League, failing only against Middlesbrough (one game) and Brighton, who he has faced four times and had eight shots against without finding the net.
  • Since the start of the 2017-18 season, Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in 127 goals in 147 appearances in all competitions (92 goals, 35 assists), 22 more than any other Premier League player in that time.

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