THE STRIKER: previews Wednesday’s busy Premier League programme with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The action includes LIVERPOOL v SPURS at 8pm.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

ARSENAL V SOUTHAMPTON

6pm We have an action packed evening on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Wednesday with six Premier League games up for decision! We start with Arsenal hosting Southampton as they face their latest crisis. They suffered an embarrassing defeat to Burnley at the weekend after losing a man through VAR. Ironically, Arsenal didn’t deserve to lose as they finished with an xG of 2.07. They were just unlucky not to score. I say ironically because when they had all the hype about them towards the start of the season they were getting very lucky winning games without xG in their favour. The tables have turned now and the media circus turns too. The pressure is on for a result here!

I don’t think they will get one though. Southampton have been excellent this season and finished in the top four after the weekend’s round of fixtures. They also had a fantastic record away from home last season, and although that dynamic is obviously changed they arrive here full of confidence. Arsenal look much too short at 2.36 to beat an in-form side – Arsenal find themselves all the way down in 15th with four losses from five Premier League games. I feel 2.36 is massively short against a side like Southampton.

The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Southampton at 2.36 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQarssth

MATCH STATS

  • Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 25 home league games against Southampton (W18 D7) since a 0-1 loss in November 1987.
  • Southampton drew this exact fixture with Arsenal 2-2 last season, conceding a 90th minute equaliser courtesy of Alexandre Lacazette. They’ve not avoided defeat in consecutive away league games against Arsenal since September 1988.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten in all 21 of their Premier League home games against Southampton (W15 D6), the most home games a team has played against another in the competition without ever losing.
  • Arsenal have lost just one of their 21 Wednesday Premier League games at the Emirates Stadium (W14 D6), going down 1-2 against Swansea in March 2016.
  • Southampton are winless in their last 21 Premier League away games played on a Wednesday (D7 L14), since winning 2-0 at Chelsea in April 1995.
  • Excluding own goals, 10 of the last 16 Premier League goals scored in fixtures between Arsenal and Southampton have been scored by English players – prior to this, only 10 of the previous 55 goals were scored by Englishmen.
  • Arsenal have received six Premier League red cards since Mikel Arteta’s first game in charge in December 2019, double that of any other side in this time.
  • Southampton have won 23 points in their opening 12 Premier League games this season (W7 D2 L3) – assuming three points for a win in all seasons, only in 2014/15 (26) have they had more points after 12 matches in a top-flight season.
  • Danny Ings has scored three Premier League goals in three appearances against Arsenal for Southampton – no Saints player has ever scored four goals against the Gunners in the competition.
  • With the 96th chance he had created in the Premier League, Southampton’s Oriol Romeu registered his first assist against Sheffield United in their last match, in his 193rd appearance. Among outfield players with at least one assist, only Stephane Henchoz (234th match) had a longer wait for his first assist in the Premier League.

LEICESTER V EVERTON

6pm This is a very interesting fixture. Everton managed to beat Chelsea 1-0 at the weekend in a good performance which came as a surprise to many as Everton had been playing poorly and Chelsea have been very impressive. Leicester have got over their mini dip in form and arrive here with three straight wins in all competitions. Leicester started the midweek round of fixture just one point off top spot, which is crazy because it doesn’t feel like they have been playing excellent football this season. Their standout performance came against Man City but they’ve had four losses including the likes of Fulham, Aston Villa, West Ham.

I wouldn’t be tempting at all by the Leicester price at 2.24, however I’m not going to lay them as I don’t fancy this Everton side. They had a good start to the season but have been poor since. You have to respect their win against Chelsea, but that was just one game – I would be of the view to judge them on this type of fixture. This one is tough to call – probably the toughest game of the evening, and I feel the draw is worth a small bet at 3.65 in what should be a close game.

The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.65 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQleievr

MATCH STATS

  • Leicester City have won three of their last five home league games against Everton (L2), as many as they had in their previous 16 against the Toffees (W3 D7 L6).
  • Everton have kept just one clean sheet in their last 15 Premier League games against Leicester, doing so in a 2-0 away win in December 2016.
  • After 13 of the first 18 Premier League games between Leicester and Everton had ended in a draw, none of the last 10 meetings between the sides in the competition have finished level (five wins each).
  • Leicester’s last Premier League game played on a Wednesday was also against Everton, and ended in a 1-2 defeat in July. They had been unbeaten in their seven previous such matches beforehand (W5 D2).
  • This will be Everton’s 100th Premier League game to be played on a Wednesday – they’ve won just 29.3% of their games on this day (W29 D29 L41), only having a lower win rate on Thursdays in the competition (12.5% – 1/8).
  • After winning their first four league games this season, Everton have won just two of their subsequent eight (D2 L4), though they did beat Chelsea last time out with their first Premier League clean sheet since the opening weekend.
  • Gylfi Sigurdsson was directly involved in eight of Everton’s nine shots against Chelsea last time out (2 shots, 6 chances created), netting the winner. Since the start of 2017/18, Sigurdsson is the only Toffees player to have created as many as six chances in a league match, doing so three times (also v Burnley in 2017 & Southampton in 2018).
  • Carlo Ancelotti has won all three of his meetings with Brendan Rodgers in all competitions, winning twice with Real Madrid in 2014/15 versus Liverpool in the Champions League and with Everton versus Leicester in the Premier League in July.
  • Leicester striker Kelechi Iheanacho has scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances against Everton, both as a substitute. The only two players to score as a sub in three consecutive appearances against an opponent are Julian Joachim versus Derby (1996-97) and Olivier Giroud versus Southampton (2017-18).
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored 19 goals in 32 Premier League games under Carlo Ancelotti, compared with 16 goals in 94 appearances under his previous Everton managers combined.

LEEDS V NEWCASTLE

6pm Leeds had another unfortunate defeat last Friday when losing 2-1 to West Ham. The Hammers have been playing good football, but Leeds created enough to deserve a draw. They started the midweek fixtures in 14th position and they really don’t deserve to be there. When you think about the type of football they have played, to sit only one point above the hapless Arsenal is unlucky. However, it’s one thing creating the chances – the reality is you have to score them and keep the ball out of your own net. Leeds just haven’t done that – they have given up too many chances at the back and teams have taken advantage. They’ve been excellent to watch for the neutral, but that doesn’t equal points.

Their style of play will suit playing against a side like Newcastle however, and they should win this evening. The problem for Leeds isn’t going forward, it’s at the back and Newcastle don’t create much. Leeds should be able to play their normal game here and this fixture will really suit them. Newcastle are an average side, and Leeds are worth backing at 1.83 to claim all three points.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Leeds to beat Newcastle at 1.83 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQleenew

MATCH STATS

  • This is the first Premier League meeting between Leeds and Newcastle since January 2004, when the Magpies won 1-0 at St James’ Park courtesy of Alan Shearer’s goal.
  • Newcastle are unbeaten in their last five away league games against Leeds (W4 D1), with this their first meeting since a 2-0 Championship win in November 2016. Their last defeat at Elland Road was in the Premier League in September 1999 (2-3).
  • Newcastle have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League games in Yorkshire (W9 D3), losing 0-1 at Huddersfield in August 2017.
  • In the Championship last season, Leeds remained unbeaten in all 14 of their midweek games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), winning nine and drawing five.
  • Newcastle have won just one of their last 22 Premier League games played on a Wednesday (D4 L17), winning 4-1 at Bournemouth in July. Indeed, the Magpies have lost more Premier League games on a Wednesday than any other side in the competition (44).
  • Leeds have lost their last two Premier League games despite opening the scoring each time. Only four teams have ever lost three in a row despite scoring first in the competition – Blackburn in April 2007, Sunderland in February 2011, Wolves in April 2012 and Leicester in December 2014.
  • 57% of Newcastle’s Premier League goals this season have come in the final 15 minutes of games (8/14). The Magpies have scored in this timeframe in all five of their victories so far this season.
  • Newcastle are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since November 2018, while manager Steve Bruce hasn’t won three in a row in the competition since a run of four with Wigan in January 2009.
  • This is Marcelo Bielsa’s 114th match in charge of Leeds United in all competitions – the most he’s managed at a club in his managerial career, overtaking the 113 he managed at Athletic Bilbao between 2011 and 2013.
  • Newcastle boss Steve Bruce hasn’t managed a Premier League game against Leeds at Elland Road since September 2003, a 2-0 win with Birmingham. On the day of this game, it will be 17 years and 87 days since then, with only Kenny Dalglish at Carrow Road (17y 210d, 1994-2012) and Roy Hodgson at Selhurst Park (18y 320d, 1998-2017) having a longer gap between games managed at a ground in Premier League history.

FULHAM V BRIGHTON

8pm We start the 8pm games with a very interesting fixture from a betting point of view. I’m sure all eyes will be on Liverpool v Spurs; however this is a massive game towards the bottom of the table and Fulham have been playing OK recently. Brighton have slipped down the table after a run of poor results, and will surely be looking at this fixture has a chance to bounce back to winning ways. Fulham have had a tough run of fixtures having to play Man City and Liverpool prior to this game, but they managed a 1-1 draw with Liverpool and City weren’t able to run riot against them in a 2-0 City win.

It’s tricky to get fully involved in these teams towards the bottom of the table, and if I had to go for one of them in the match odds market I’d back Fulham at 3.0. That won’t be my recommended bet here however, as I like over 2.5 goals at 2.06. Both sides have been creating good chances recently, and while I fully take on board this might end up being a very cagey bottom of the table clash – I believe we’re getting good value on overs at just over odds against. Brighton have been better away compared to at home, and they are playing good football. Both sides like to attack and are reasonably open – I think we’ll see goals here.

The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 2.06 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQfulbha

MATCH STATS

  • Fulham have won just one of their last seven league meetings with Brighton (D1 L5), though it did come in their last such meeting, a 4-2 win at Craven Cottage in January 2019.
  • Brighton have scored at least twice in each of their last seven meetings in all competitions with Fulham (W5 D1 L1), having done so just once in their previous eight against the Cottagers.
  • The away side has taken a 2-0 lead in both previous Premier League meetings between Fulham and Brighton but have failed to win both times – Brighton came back to draw 2-2 at home in September 2018, while Fulham won 4-2 at Craven Cottage in January 2019.
  • In the regular Championship season last season, Fulham lost just two of their 14 midweek matches (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), winning seven and drawing five. At home, the Cottagers won four of their five such games (L1).
  • No team has played more Premier League games on a Wednesday without ever winning than Brighton, with the Seagulls drawing four and losing four of their eight such games.
  • Brighton have won just three of their 18 away Premier League matches in London (D5 L10) and are winless in their last five league matches in the capital (D3 L2).
  • Brighton have won just two of their opening 12 games in the Premier League this season (D4 L6), their joint-fewest at this stage of a top-flight campaign in the club’s history (also two in 1979-80 and 1980-81).
  • Only their opponents Brighton and Hove Albion (5) have conceded more penalty goals than Fulham in the Premier League this season (4), with their last two goals conceded coming from penalties. The Cottagers have never conceded a penalty goal in three consecutive Premier League games.
  • Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored in each of his two Premier League appearances against Brighton, netting three goals. The only player to score in three consecutive Premier League appearances for Fulham against a single opponent is Clint Dempsey vs Bolton between April 2011 and April 2012.
  • Bobby De Cordova-Reid has scored in his last three home Premier League games, the first Fulham player to do that since Dimitar Berbatov in April 2013; no Cottagers player has ever netted in four consecutive home Premier League games, while the last Fulham player to score in four home league appearances in a row was Ross McCormack in April 2015.

LIVERPOOL V TOTENHAM

8pm Undoubtedly the highlight of the night and a fascinating fixture. Both sides have exactly the same record after 12 games with seven wins, four draws and one loss. Spurs have had a tough run of fixtures with games recently against Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal. They actually impressed for those three fixtures, and then threw away their advantage at the weekend with a 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace. The equaliser came late and would have been a real kick in the teeth. Liverpool also dropped points at the weekend with a 1-1 draw, but that only sets this fixture up to be a cracker given the situation at the top of the table!

I must say from a value point of view, the Liverpool lay jumps off the page at 1.83. I fully respect how good they are and what a fantastic record they have in the big games here, but I also fully expect Spurs to out-perform those odds and make this a closer game than 1.83 suggests. Spurs have been excellent this season, and Jose Mourinho has got his tactics spot on in the big games especially against Man City. They have created a lot of chances too, and with Liverpool having problems at the back they are surely score at some stage and make life difficult for Jurgen Klopp’s men. I would have Liverpool bigger than 1.83, and have to lay them from a value point of view in what should be a fascinating match.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Tottenham at 1.83 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQlivttm

MATCH STATS

  • Liverpool have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League games against Tottenham (W10 D4), going down 1-4 at Wembley in October 2017. The Reds have won their last four against Spurs in the league, all by a margin of just one goal (3x 2-1, 1x 1-0).
  • Tottenham have won just one of their last 26 Premier League away games against Liverpool (D8 L17), winning 2-0 in May 2011 under Harry Redknapp.
  • Tottenham have won three of their last seven away league games against reigning top-flight champions (D2 L2), beating Man Utd in 2013-14, Leicester in 2016-17 and Chelsea in 2017-18 – they’d only won three of their previous 40 such matches (D6 L31).
  • Spurs have never lost six consecutive matches against Liverpool in all competitions – they last endured such a losing run against an opponent versus Man Utd between September 2001 and September 2004 (seven defeats in a row).
  • Liverpool have already dropped 11 points in the Premier League this season (W7 D4 L1), with the Reds only dropping 15 in the entirety of their title-winning season in 2019/20, taking them until the 35th game last season to drop their 11th point in a 1-1 draw with Burnley.
  • Tottenham manager José Mourinho has never won away against Liverpool’s Jürgen Klopp in five attempts in all competitions (D2 L3), making the German the manager he’s faced the most away from home without ever tasting victory.
  • Tottenham’s Gareth Bale has been involved in five goals in his last four games against Liverpool in all competitions (3 goals, 2 assists), with this match potentially his first game against them since the 2018 UEFA Champions League final with Real Madrid (2 goals).
  • Liverpool have scored their last 18 Premier League penalties, with Mohamed Salah converting 12 of those. This run of consecutive scoring from the spot is the longest by a team since Sunderland scored 23 consecutive penalties between March 2012 and January 2017.
  • Spurs striker Harry Kane has been directly involved in five goals in six away Premier League games against Liverpool (4 goals, 1 assist). Kane has scored in four games at Anfield and never ended on the winning side (D2 L2), with only Nigel Clough (5 games) and Dougie Freedman (6) ever scoring in more games at one stadium without winning in Premier League history, with both Clough and Freedman doing so at the City Ground.
  • Spurs striker Harry Kane has been involved in 19 goals in 12 Premier League games this season (9 goals, 10 assists). Another goal will see him reach double figures for both goals and assists – the fewest appearances needed to achieve this in a season in Premier League history is 17 games, achieved by Cesc Fàbregas in 2009/10 for Arsenal.

WEST HAM V CRYSTAL PALACE

8pm We finish an action packed evening with West Ham hosting Crystal Palace. The Hammers have been excellent this season and started the midweek games sitting in 6th position. That’s a huge difference to when David Moyes took over, and things have been going pretty well for him. They have been very impressive going forward, they have been creating a host of chances and when you’re creating that many chances you’re going to win games. They should be able to beat this Crystal Palace side who have struggled for goals recently – although they did manage a 1-1 draw with Spurs the weekend.

I’m a big fan of this West Ham side however, and they look full of confidence. They probably didn’t deserve to beat Leeds on Friday night as it was a very even games – however they marginally created the best chances winning the game 2.04 to 1.73 on xG. They have some minor issues at the back, but I don’t see Crystal Palace being good enough to take advantage of that. The West Ham win at 2.18 will do me to finish the evening! Best of luck with your bets.

The Striker Says:
One point win West Ham to beat Crystal Palace at 2.18 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwhucrl

MATCH STATS

  • West Ham have scored at least once in each of their last 12 Premier League games against Crystal Palace – only against Fulham (16) are they on a current longer run of scoring in consecutive matches in the competition.
  • Crystal Palace came from behind to win both Premier League meetings with West Ham last season – they’ve never won three consecutive league games against the Hammers before.
  • West Ham United haven’t lost back-to-back home league games since December 2019 under Manuel Pellegrini – the Hammers have never done so under current boss David Moyes in 30 matches at London Stadium.
  • Crystal Palace are looking to win consecutive away London derbies in the Premier League for the first time since November 1997, when they won three in a row against QPR, Wimbledon and Spurs.
  • In their last away Premier League match at West Brom, Crystal Palace hit five goals – as many as in their previous nine on the road combined. Even with just one league game played in December 2020, five away goals are Palace’s most in a calendar month since January 2019 when they scored six.
  • West Ham have won four of their last five Premier League games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 13 in the competition (W4 D5 L4).
  • West Ham boss David Moyes has won 60% of his Premier League matches against Crystal Palace’s Roy Hodgson (P10 W6 D1 L3), his best ratio against any of the 15 managers he’s faced at least 10 times in the competition.
  • Against no side has Crystal Palace’s Jordan Ayew scored more Premier League goals than he has versus West Ham (4). The Ghanaian netted the winning goal in both league games against the Hammers last season.
  • West Ham’s Manuel Lanzini has been directly involved in five goals in six Premier League starts against Crystal Palace (4 goals, 1 assist), though he hasn’t scored or assisted in any of his last two against the Eagles.
  • For West Ham in the Premier League this season, full-back Aaron Cresswell has created the most chances (22), provided the most assists (4), made the most successful crosses (27) and played the most passes into the box (74) of any player at the club.

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