PREMIER LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Striker previews ARSENAL v EVERTON and LIVERPOOL v WOLVES on Wednesday including FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet for both games.
ARSENAL V EVERTON
7.45pm We kick off a new month with some excellent Premier League action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! Arsenal and Liverpool play their games in hand on Wednesday night, and it’s fair to say they are both must win games for the home sides. We start the evening with Arsenal hosting Everton, and the Gunners have another chance to make the gap five points at the top of the table. That would be a huge boost after they saw their five point advantage cut down by Manchester City, even City going top of the table on goal difference, but Arsenal have got back to winning ways since and are now in a great place again. City dropping points to Nottingham Forest just after beating Arsenal was criminal really, and now Arsenal can stick the knife in with another three points. Everton were actually one of the sides that put the brakes on Arsenal – when Sean Dyche had just took over they recorded an impressive 1-0 win with home advantage. It will very likely be a different story now that Arsenal are at home, but Everton did outplay Arsenal only a couple of weeks ago. Arsenal only managed to create an xG of 0.76. After that game we were all wondering was that Arsenal’s title bid starting to crack. A late and dramatic win over Aston Villa and a hard fought 1-0 win over Leicester at the weekend has them fully back on track.
Arsenal come into the game as the hot favourites. They are currently trading 1.39 at the time of writing, and it’s hard to see past the home win here. Everton have produced three decent home performances under Sean Dyche, but they were woeful away to Liverpool. Arsenal have been playing at a higher standard than Liverpool this season too. Although losing 2-0 at the weekend to Aston Villa, Everton did manage to finish the game with an xG of 1.88. That was OK, and probably a sign that they will be able to stay up this season. I would assume Dyche will target the home games, and probably set up for a draw away from home. That won’t work here however – Arsenal have been creating a huge amount of chances this season and if Everton just give them the ball, they will find a way through at some stage. Arsenal’s average xG created this season is a very high 2.0, while Everton have been conceding an average of 1.8. Add that to the fact Everton have been so poor away from home this season, and I expect Arsenal to cover the handicap here. The 2.11 -1.5 goals looks very nice value.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Arsenal -1.5 goals to beat Everton at 2.11 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsEvr
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Arsenal have won 99 of their 203 league games against Everton (D43 L61), and could become the first team in English league history to register 100 victories against a specific opponent.
● Everton have won just one of their last 26 away games against Arsenal in the Premier League (D4 L21), picking up a 1-0 victory in April 2021.
● Everton have won four of their last five league games against Arsenal, including a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture last month. It’s as many victories as they had in their previous 28 against the Gunners (D8 L16).
● Everton have never won a Premier League away game against the side starting the day top of the table, drawing five and losing 19 such matches. The Toffees’ last league victory away to the top-flight leaders was in September 1986, a 2-1 win at Wimbledon.
● After a run of 10 consecutive home wins in the Premier League, Arsenal have won just one of their last four at the Emirates (D2 L1). The Gunners have also kept just two clean sheets in their last 16 home league games.
● Everton have won just one of their last 13 Premier League away games, a 2-1 win at Southampton in October (D5 L7). Since that victory, the Toffees have scored just one goal in their seven away games (D2 L5), with Demarai Gray netting in a 1-1 draw at Manchester City in December.
● Arsenal have 57 points from their 24 Premier League games this season – victory here would be the joint fastest the Gunners have ever reached 60 points in a single league campaign, also doing so after 25 games in both 2003-04 and 2007-08.
● Having lost his first nine Premier League games against Arsenal, Everton boss Sean Dyche has lost just one of his last six against them (W2 D3). However, his sides have never scored more than once in those 15 meetings with the Gunners, netting seven goals in total.
● James Tarkowski scored Everton’s winner against Arsenal in the reverse fixture – the last Toffees player to score home and away against the Gunners in the same Premier League campaign was Tomasz Radzinski in 2003-04.
● Gabriel Martinelli has scored in his last two Premier League appearances for Arsenal – he’s never scored in three in a row within the same season before. He’s scored nine Premier League goals this season, and could become the third Brazilian to reach double figures in a single campaign while aged 21 or under, after Gabriel Jesus (2017-18) and Richarlison (2018-19).
LIVERPOOL V WOLVES
8pm It feels like Liverpool and Wolves have been playing each other all season! Of course, an FA Cup replay will make it feel like that, and this is another massive game for both sides. Wolves are still in the relegation battle, they have given themselves a big cushion in recent weeks but they are still only three points away from danger. A 3-0 win over Liverpool with home advantage was a massive boost to their chance of staying up, and they’ll be hoping to repeat that performance because it was one of their best all season. Liverpool have been woeful at the back pretty much all season, however that win over Newcastle has given them a chance at getting back into the Top Four. It meant Newcastle dropped out of the Top Four, and now the target is Spurs – Liverpool sit nine points behind Spurs at the moment but they do have two games in hand. The task is pretty simple – win their two games in hand and then hope Spurs slip up somewhere. Easier said than done of course, especially considering that Liverpool have to play Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal all in a row in April. They do have home advantage in a meeting against Spurs however later in the season, and that could end up being a dramatic game in the Top Four race. The big problem for Liverpool of course is it’s hard to keep winning games when you are conceding goals for fun. Klopp looks like he has no answers to the issues at the back too, so I can hardly see things changing. The 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace at the weekend was just a disappointing too – although they aren’t out of the Top Four race, it’s hard to see them being successful.
It’s a sign of how little confidence the market has in Liverpool at the moment that they come into this game trading 1.53. Usually we’d see them in the 1.3’s to beat a side close to the relegation zone – we have even saw Liverpool shorter than 1.2 with home advantage when they were in the title race. It’s hard to trust Liverpool at the moment, and I wouldn’t be able to back them at odds on here. Wolves have been playing solid football lately – I know their standard isn’t high, but you can say that they have been playing their best football of the season. They were unlucky to lose to Bournemouth, finishing the game with an xG higher than they conceded. Wolves managed to get a 2-2 here in the FA Cup, and then we saw Over 2.5 goals land again when the sides met in the Premier League. Backing Overs isn’t a bad position in any Liverpool game at the moment despite a 0-0 draw at the weekend. It’s trading 1.8 here and that looks the best value option, as I said above it’s hard to have a strong opinion on Liverpool at odds on given the way they defend at the moment.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivWlv
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Liverpool have won 18 of their last 20 home league games against Wolves, with the exceptions being 1-0 defeats in January 1984 and December 2010.
● Wolves’ 3-0 win in the reverse fixture ended an 11-game losing run against Liverpool in the Premier League. They’re looking to complete the league double over the Reds for the first time since 1950-51.
● Wolves scored as many goals in their 3-0 win over Liverpool last month as they had in their previous 11 league games against them combined. However, they’ve not scored more than once in any of their last 17 league visits to Anfield (5 goals in total) since a 2-4 loss in September 1972.
● Liverpool have failed to score in four of their last six league games, having failed to find the net in just three of their previous 65. Indeed, they’ve failed to score in four league games so far in 2023, twice as many as in the whole of 2022.
● Liverpool have kept three consecutive Premier League clean sheets for the first time this season, last keeping more consecutively between February and April 2022 (5). The Reds have faced just five shots on target in these three matches, four of which were against Newcastle.
● In their first 15 Premier League games this season, Wolves were averaging 0.5 goals per game, 1.6 goals conceded per game and 0.7 points per game. In their nine games under Julen Lopetegui, they are averaging 1.1 goals, 1 goal conceded and 1.6 points.
● Liverpool are the only side yet to concede a goal from outside the box in the Premier League this season; last season, the Reds conceded a league-high share 27% of their goals from distance (7/26).
● Craig Dawson (on his club debut) and Rúben Neves scored for Wolves in their victory over Liverpool in the reverse fixture. The last Wolves player to score home and away league goals against the Reds in the same season was John Richards in 1972-73.
● Mohamed Salah – who has scored in his last two home league games against Wolves – has scored 126 Premier League goals for Liverpool, and is just two goals away from equalling Robbie Fowler (128) in becoming the Reds’ highest scorer in the competition.
● Since his Premier League debut on 22nd January, Pablo Sarabia has created more chances (7), had more shots on target (3) and played more passes into the box (29) than any other Wolves player. He netted his first goal for the club in their 1-1 draw at Fulham last time out.
