WEDNESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Wednesday’s games between LIVERPOOL v FULHAM and MANCHESTER CITY v WEST HAM with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LIVERPOOL V FULHAM
8pm The midweek Premier League action continues on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with two fixtures on Wednesday. It’s fair to say most punters will be expecting a comfortable home double as Liverpool host Fulham and Manchester City host West Ham. We have two red-hot home favourites, and we start the evening with Liverpool trading at 1.28 against Fulham. Liverpool were involved in the most entertaining game of the weekend as they beat Spurs 4-3 an Anfield. Gary Neville said on Sky Sports “that is the most Tottenham thing you’ll ever see” as Spurs came from 3-0 down to 3-3 with seconds left, only to concede the winner with a mistake at the back. Classic Spurs, another rollercoaster win for Liverpool. That win moved Liverpool ahead of Spurs into fifth place, and a win here would see them move five points ahead of Spurs as this is their game in hand. United are seven points ahead of Liverpool, but they do have a game in hand on Liverpool too – they play Brighton Thursday night away from home which is a very tricky fixture. Fulham had to play Manchester City at the weekend so we can forgive them that loss, in general though they haven’t been playing great football. They recently beat Leeds and Everton, but those games were very even on xG figures.
Liverpool will be fully expected to win here, and they have been banging in goals for fun recently. They have scored 17 goals in their last five games, and their xG figures have been just as impressive. For example they only scored twice against Arsenal but they finished that game with an xG of 4.40! I feel this is a case of how many goals Arsenal can score rather than will they win, and we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. That being said, I wouldn’t put anyone off including Liverpool in a midweek Acca! Fulham have been massively over-performing at the back this season – their average xG conceded is 1.9 which is very high – that’s relegation battle standard. Teams haven’t taken their chances against them this season, and if they don’t correct that during the summer they will be in a relegation battle next season. With Liverpool in such good form in front of goal, they can run riot here. That being said, Liverpool have also been conceding chances for fun – I expect another very open and entertaining game involving Liverpool, and Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.47! I feel Liverpool will give Fulham chances though, and Both Teams To Score looks the value call at 1.91. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3-1 or 4-1 home win – Fulham have been creating enough to score at some stage.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivFul
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Liverpool are winless in their last three Premier League games against Fulham (D2 L1) – only once have they had a longer run without a win against them in league competition (four games between February 1966 and December 1967).
● Fulham have won just two of their 29 away league games against Liverpool (D7 L20). However, these victories have come in their last five visits to Anfield, including a 1-0 win in their last such match in March 2021.
● Between 1949 and 2018, Fulham won just one of their 55 away league games against Everton and Liverpool, drawing 11 and losing 43. Since then, the Cottagers have won their last three on Merseyside.
● Liverpool have won 14 of their last 16 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (D1 L1), winning all seven at Anfield in that run. The Reds have won their last eight specifically on Wednesdays, scoring 22 goals and conceding just three.
● In their first five away league games following the World Cup break, Fulham kept four clean sheets and won three matches (D1 L1). Since then, they’ve lost three of their last four on the road (W1), conceding at least once in each match.
● Liverpool have scored more Premier League goals on Wednesdays than any other side (220), while only in games played on Friday (2.3) do the Reds have a higher goals-per-game average than Wednesday (1.8).
● Liverpool have won 11 of their last 12 Premier League games in May (D1) since losing 1-0 at Chelsea in 2018. Only Manchester United (23 between 1993 and 2000) have had a longer unbeaten run in the month of May in the competition.
● Fulham have lost seven of their last eight Premier League matches against teams starting the day above them in the league table, winning the other 1-0 against Brighton in February.
● Trent Alexander-Arnold has assisted in each of his last five Premier League appearances for Liverpool. Only two players have assisted a goal in six consecutive appearances in Premier League history – Cesc Fàbregas (six in a row, 2011-14) and Mesut Özil (seven, Sep-Nov 2015).
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been involved in 11 goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances (9 goals, 2 assists) – indeed, since the start of March, that’s the most of any player in the division.
MANCHESTER CITY V WEST HAM
8pm No surprises as to what is the shortest price of the midweek fixtures as Manchester City trade 1.22 to beat West Ham! There seems to be no stopping City at the moment as they march towards another Premier League title – obviously they have a massive Champions League Semi-Final coming up too, and they could end up with a treble as they are in the FA Cup Final against Manchester United. They have peaked just at the right time, and they are playing incredible football too. They just aren’t grinding out results under pressure, they are blowing sides away. Fulham did manage to keep them down to a one goal win at the weekend, that was the first time in the Premier League since the 11th March that City have only won by one goal. Both those games came away from home however, and they have been scoring goals for fun at home. Even Arsenal couldn’t stop them from scoring four last week. If West Ham conceded four goals away to Crystal Palace at the weekend, one wonders how they will cope with an in-form City side! The Hammers have had a poor season, but they have avoided a serious relegation fight despite their issues. That being said, they are only four points away from the bottom three – their game in hand isn’t worth much away to City either!
This is going to be a case of how many goals City can score rather than will they win. West Ham have been poor away from home this season, only 12 points from 16 away games highlights why they are where they are in the table. It’s been a remarkable drop from West Ham who were fighting for the European spots in recent seasons – they are even still in the Europa Conference League Semi-Final soon! They’ve been very entertaining to watch this season, they are creating and conceding an average xG of 1.5. Giving away that many chances, along with their away record, is never a good sign coming to City. I like City to cover the 1.5 goal Handicap here – currently trading 1.63 at the time of writing and that jumps off the page as the value bet of the night in my opinion. Despite only scoring two goals at the weekend, City finished the game with an xG of over 2.0 and they can get back to blowing teams away here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat West Ham at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciWhu
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Man City are unbeaten in 14 Premier League games against West Ham (W11 D3) since a 2-1 home defeat in September 2015.
● West Ham have taken just four points from their 16 Premier League games against Man City at the Etihad Stadium (W1 D1 L14), conceding at least once in every visit to the ground. Their last top-flight clean sheet away against the Citizens was a 1-0 win at Maine Road in April 2003 with David James in goal.
● Since losing 2-1 to Leicester in December 2018, Man City have won each of their last 24 Premier League games on a Wednesday – the longest winning run by a side on a specific day in the competition’s history. Overall, only Man Utd (61%) have a higher win rate on Wednesdays than Man City (60%) in the Premier League (min. 5 games).
● Manchester City have scored at least once in each of their last 30 Premier League home games (100 goals in total) since a 2-0 loss to Crystal Palace in October 2021. The Citizens have won their last seven at the Etihad, scoring at least twice each time.
● Manchester City have won 10 of their last 11 Premier League matches (D1), although they have conceded in nine of those games. They’ve only kept a clean sheet in 31% of their league games this season (10/32), their lowest ratio since 2009-10 (29%).
● West Ham have scored six goals from corners in their last six Premier League games, two more than they had in their previous 27 matches this season (4).
● Man City’s Erling Haaland has scored 21 home goals in the Premier League this season – the last player to net more in a single campaign was Thierry Henry in 2003-04 (22 at Highbury).
● With three goals and three assists, Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in six goals in his last three Premier League appearances for Man City at the Etihad Stadium, assisting at least once in all three.
● West Ham’s Michail Antonio has either scored (2) or assisted (1) a goal in each of his last three Premier League appearances, as many as he had in his previous 21. Only once has he been involved in a goal in four consecutive top-flight games, scoring in four in a row in August/September 2016.
● Erling Haaland has scored 34 Premier League goals in 30 appearances this season for Manchester City – one more goal will see him break the record for goals in a Premier League season; he is currently level with Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95.
