PREMIER LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Striker previews Wednesday’s three Premier League games all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V LUTON TOWN
7.30pm The midweek Premier League action continues on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with three fixtures on Wednesday night. It’s a night that might have a big impact on the title race with Arsenal and Manchester City both in action; however with both of them at home it’s fair to say anything bar home wins would be a surprise. Arsenal are hosting Luton, and they are trading as short as 1.12 at the time of writing! The market is fully expecting a home win here! If you do fancy a shock, Luton are 25.0 and the draw is 12.5, but this is very likely to be about how many goals can Arsenal score rather than will they win. Luton fans are definitely going through a rollercoaster of emotions at the moment; they lost 4-3 to Bournemouth after being 3-0 up at half-time, then they had the Nottingham Forest points deductions and then at the weekend they were 1-0 up against Spurs at half-time only to lose in the 86th minute. They will start this game sitting in the relegation zone, but let’s be honest – if they pick up anything here it will be a complete bonus. Their home game against Bournemouth at the weekend is massive for them, especially considering they’re away to Manchester City afterwards.
Mikel Arteta took a very cautious approach when away to Manchester City at the weekend. It was a pretty boring 0-0, but Arsenal would have been happy with that. They kept their one point advantage over City and it was always difficult away from home – especially with the record City had. Their main focus now is catching Liverpool who are two points ahead. This should be a routine win for Arsenal in my opinion – Luton have an average xG conceded of 1.77 which is the third worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season. While Arsenal aren’t creating the same volume of chances as Manchester City and Liverpool (both have an average xG over 2.0), they still have an exceptionally impressive figure of 1.86. They have also been the best side at the back this season – Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.81 and that’s an appealing price for an Arsenal clean sheet. Arsenal are odds on to cover a 2.5 goal Handicap – that’s currently trading five ticks higher at 1.86 and I have to say I much prefer the Arsenal clean sheet option at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsLut
BRENTFORD V BRIGHTON
7.30pm Next we have Brentford hosting Brighton – these two are the OG xG boys but they have been suffering this season. Brighton have gone from the European spots to a mid-table side this season while Brentford are pretty close to the relegation zone. They are definitely “too good to go down” but they are going to start the midweek round of fixtures only five points off the bottom three which isn’t a comfortable position. Brighton have only won four games from their last 14 Premier League fixtures, and that’s a terrible stat considering they have an average xG created of 1.68 – that’s the fifth best attacking figure in the Premier League! Their major issue has been conceding goals though, and they have been very sloppy at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.33 which isn’t a bad figure at all, but you can see they have been careless at the back because their actual goals conceded average is 1.59. That’s why they sit in midtable. Brentford have also been sloppy at the back, and they have been conceding a lot of chances too. Their average xG conceded is 1.67 – that’s the joint-fifth worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season.
Like Brighton, they have been conceding more than they should be too. Their actual goals conceded average is higher, and everything about this game screams goals. Neither side sit back at all, they are both making mistakes at the back and it’s hard not to see an open game here. We have a very open market, and I have to say I was surprised to see Brentford trading as the favourites given how poor they have been this season. Brentford are 2.52 with Brighton 2.84 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. Neither side have been reliable this season, but the 2.52 definitely feels a little short on Brentford. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here however because as I said above, this game just screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.63 and that looks cracking value in what should be a very open game. Both sides can create a lot of chances, their style of play suits an open game and they both are making mistakes at the back. The 1.63 is worth taking in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreBgt
MANCHESTER CITY V ASTON VILLA
8.15pm We finish Wednesday night with a cracker as Manchester City host Aston Villa. This is a huge game for both sides with Manchester City dropping points in the title race at the weekend; they had a difficult fixture against Arsenal but with home advantage they needed a win considering they are sitting in third. Aston Villa have been locked in a battle with Spurs for that fourth spot for weeks now, and we’re going to see plenty of drama in that race before the end of the season. It looked like Spurs were taking control with a 4-0 win over Villa, but then in classic Spurs fashion they lost to Fulham the weekend after! They nearly looked like dropping points against Luton too at the weekend! Although Villa are having a superb season and indeed they’ve already beaten City when they had home advantage, most football fans will still expect a comfortable win for City here. The market has them as the red-hot favourites at 1.3 with Aston Villa 10.5 and the draw is 7.0 at the time of writing. Villa are having their best season for many years, but it really highlights how much below City the market rates them looking at a price of 1.3.
I have to say that the 1.3 definitely feels a little short, but it’s hard to argue when you look at the stats. City’s average xG created is 2.16 – the best attacking figure in the Premier League – while Villa’s figure is 1.56. That’s quite a difference, and given Villa have been going through a little wobble recently it is hard to see past a City win here. I do feel though that the match will be closer than the odds suggest – I wouldn’t put anyone off a small City lay from a value point of view, however the 1.3 makes the Handicap markets interesting. I’d expect Unai Emery to set Villa up very negatively here to play for a draw, and they can keep the score line respectable. They might lose in the end, but I don’t see it being by more than one goal. The Villa win +1.5 goals on the Handicap is trading 2.13 and that looks a very nice position. Villa have an average xG conceded of 1.27 which is pretty impressive – that’s the fourth best defensive figure in the Premier League only behind Arsenal, City and Liverpool. Like I said, we might see a City win in the end but I’d expect them to have to work very hard for it and the Villa Handicap position appeals to me.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Aston Villa +1.5 goals to beat Manchester City at 2.13 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MncAvl
