PREMIER LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Striker previews Wednesday’s four matches including EVERTON v LIVERPOOL all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WOLVES V BOURNEMOUTH
7.45pm The midweek Premier League action continues on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with four fixtures on Wednesday night. All eyes will no doubt be on the Merseyside Derby as the highlight fixture, but we start the evening with Wolves hosting Bournemouth. There isn’t much in it between Crystal Palace v Newcastle and this fixture, but this is the most open betting heat of the night. Bournemouth are the favourites at 2.6 with Wolves 2.84 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. We’re fast approaching the end of the season and with these two sitting in midtable, these two are the exact type of sides who can be “on the beach” early as they say. These two are within one point of each other, but basically they are looking at finishing in that block of 10th to 13th – finishing in the top half of the table is definitely something you could use to motivate players but I always look at these situations and feel the motivation is up to the players at this point. Essentially they have nothing else to play for only what pride they have in their performances – we can really see some clubs throw in some terrible performances towards the end of the season.
We can see some crazy score lines too, and you wouldn’t be surprised if we had a pretty open game here. Although Wolves are sitting above Bournemouth, there’s quite a big gap between the teams when you look at their performance levels. Wolves have definitely over-performed this season; their average xG created is only 1.16 but their actually goals scored average is 1.39 – that adds up to plenty of points. Bournemouth have been much better going forward with an average xG created of 1.49 and you can see why they are the favourites here, even away from home. Both sides have very similar records at the back; they actually concede plenty of chances; both have an average xG conceded over 1.5. Wolves have put together five games without a win now, and they haven’t had a hugely difficult fixture list – they’ve played Nottingham Forest, Burnley and West Ham in that run. I would lean towards Bournemouth in the match odds market, but I feel we’ll see goals here in an open game – Over 2.5 goals is worth backing at 1.67.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WlvBou
CRYSTAL PALACE V NEWCASTLE
8pm We have another very open market as Crystal Palace host Newcastle. Crystal Palace come into this game off the back of their best run of the season – they have put together back-to-back wins for the first time, and they must be full of confidence after beating Liverpool and then scoring five goals against West Ham. They have a decent chance of making it three wins in a row here too given how poor Newcastle have been at times away from home this season. We have a very similar market to the game above, except Newcastle are a couple of ticks shorter as the favourites. Newcastle are trading 2.54 with Crystal Palace 2.88 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. It’s easy to understand why we have an open market here; you can comfortably pick holes in both sides here. Palace have an average xG created of just 1.13 this season which is the joint-fourth worst attacking figure in the Premier League. It increases a little at home, but they are still conceding more chances than they are creating at home. That being said, as I said above they probably come into this game in the best place they’ve been all season.
Newcastle have also won both their last games before the FA Cup Semi-Finals this weekend meant they had a weekend off. They grinded out a 1-0 win away to Fulham before hammering Spurs 4-0. They have been conceding a host of chances away from home all season though; their average xG conceded is as high as 1.76 away from home which is a very big figure! They haven’t been creating enough to counter that too as their average created is only 1.23. It is hard to support Newcastle away from home with those figures, but they have started to win away games after going on a long run without a win mid-season. I know we have a very open market here, but I would actually have both sides a little longer in the market and the draw a little shorter than 3.8. I feel with Palace at home we’re going to have a very close game, and the 3.8 looks the value play at 3.8.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryMwc
EVERTON V LIVERPOOL
8pm We have the highlight of the nigh as Everton host Liverpool in the latest instalment of the Merseyside Derby. This is always a massive fixture for both sets of fans, but over the last few years there’s definitely been a gulf in class between the sides. Everton have been battling relegation while Liverpool have been challenging for the title. For the time being at least, Liverpool have a one point advantage over Manchester City but after this game they will have played two more games – Manchester City play again on Thursday night. As I said about Arsenal, who started this week with the same amount of points as City, they just have to win every game and see what happens – put a little pressure on City. Everton would dearly love to put a massive dent in Liverpool’s chances, even if they already took a massive blow with their loss an Anfield against Crystal Palace. Their season nearly went up in smoke within a matter of the days as they lost 3-0 to Atalanta and then crashed out of Europe too. Everton eased the pressure on themselves in the relegation battle with a win over Nottingham Forest at the weekend, so they can afford to have a proper go here.
As you would expect, Liverpool come into the game as the odds on favourites. Jurgen Klopp’s men are trading 1.49 with Everton 7.0 and the draw is 5.2 at the time of writing. Everton have been through a lot this season – they were playing their best football for a long time before their point deduction, then went on a 13 game run without a win. Although they got hammered 6-0 by Chelsea, wins either side of that against Burnley and Nottingham Forest have eased any relegation fears. Liverpool have been absolutely superb going forward, their average xG created is 2.20 this season which his exceptionally impressive. I feel the 1.49 on them looks good value here; they have won four of the last five meetings with Everton, and it seems the best hope Everton have a draw here. They managed a 0-0 when they had home advantage, but I’d have Liverpool closer to 1.4 rather than 1.5, and I’m very happy to take the 1.49.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Liverpool to beat Everton at 1.49 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EvrLiv
MANCHESTER UNITED V SHEFFIELD UNITED
8pm We finish Wednesday night with Manchester United hosting Sheffield United. On paper, this is surely a game that Manchester United will win – Sheffield United have been the worst side in Europe this season. They have an overall performance figure of -1.07; they have the worst attacking and defensive figure while sitting nailed to the bottom of the table. The writing has been on the wall for Sheffield United for while – I wondered months ago where to you even begin to fix the problems when they are at both ends of the pitch! The most interesting thing about this game will be can Manchester United keep a clean sheet against the worst attack in the league? United have been leaking goals for fun this season; highlighted again at the weekend when conceding three goals after going 3-0 up against Coventry in the FA Cup. What was looking like a smooth win turned into a dramatic penalty shootout. United have an average xG conceded of 1.74 this season which is the fourth worst defensive figure in the Premier League. Their actual goals conceded average is lower at 1.5 so things could be even worse for Erik ten Hag!
Even allowing for all the issues United have had at the back this season, they still come into the game as the red-hot favourites. They are trading 1.32 at the time of writing with Sheffield United 9.8 and the draw is 6.6. It highlights the gulf in class between United and the likes of Liverpool for example who played Sheffield United at home recently and went off 1.09! Sheffield United have definitely opened up a little as the season ticks down; Over 2.5 goals has collected in 11 of their last 13 Premier League games. United have been involved in a lot of high scoring games too given their troubles at the back; Over 2.5 goals is 1.39 so the market is expecting an entertaining game here. I feel Both Teams To Score is a better option at 1.69 – I fully expect United to win, but their record at the back is woeful this season and although Sheffield United haven’t been Premier League standard, they can get on the score sheet at some stage.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunShu
