THE STRIKER: previews the Premier League action on a busy Wednesday with the games between BURNLEY v ASTON VILLA, CHELSEA v WOLVES, BRIGHTON v FULHAM, EVERTON v LEICESTER and MAN U v SHEFFIELD UNITED – all previewed with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

BURNLEY V ASTON VILLA

6pm It’s a busy Wednesday evening in the Premier League with five fixtures! We start the evening with Burnley hosting Aston Villa and one of my more confident bets. Aston Villa look excellent value here at odds against, currently trading 2.1 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Burnley made the headlines last week with a 1-0 win over Liverpool, but Liverpool have been under-performing a lot lately and Burnley were very average against West Ham prior to that. They have had a good run of results, but they haven’t really had the performances to match. They usually grind out results which is a credit to them, but Villa have been creating so much I can only see them out scoring Burnley.

I can understand why some punters are keen to lay Villa given Burnley’s recent run, but they have pushed the price out too far for me. Villa have had a tough run of late – they had to play Chelsea, Man United, Liverpool and Man City along with a Covid19 outbreak at their training ground. They had to play the U23’s against Liverpool, but they bounced back nicely with a 2-0 win over Newcastle at the weekend. Prior to that tough run of fixtures they created an xG of 4.70 against Crystal Palace too. The 2.1 simply looks too big to ignore here, and it’s a confident selection for me – a cracking value play.

The Striker Says:
Four points win Aston Villa to beat Burnley at 2.1 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburavl

MATCH STATS

  • Burnley have won just one of their seven Premier League meetings with Aston Villa (D4 L2), a 1-0 away win in May 2015 when the Clarets had already been relegated.
  • Aston Villa are looking to record back-to-back away top-flight wins against Burnley for the first time since a run of four wins between 1895 and 1900.
  • Aston Villa’s last away top-flight clean sheet against Burnley was 101 years ago in January 1920 in a goalless draw, failing to record a shutout in any of their 33 subsequent visits since; the Villa goalkeeper in 1920’s 0-0 draw was Sam Hardy, capped 21 times by England.
  • Turf Moor has seen fewer goals scored than any other Premier League ground this season, with just 13 goals being scored in Burnley’s eight home league games this season (F5 A8). However, none of these games have finished goalless.
  • Burnley’s first ever Premier League victory came in their first Wednesday game in the competition, beating Manchester United 1-0 at Turf Moor in August 2009. Since then, they’ve drawn three and lost three of their six home Premier League games played on Wednesdays.
  • Aston Villa have lost their last two Premier League away games, more than they had in their previous nine on the road (W5 D3). The Villans have conceded four goals in these games, more than they had in their first seven on the road this term (3).
  • Aston Villa lost against Manchester City on Wednesday last week – they’ve not lost a top-flight match on consecutive Wednesdays since the 1991-92 campaign, when they lost on Wednesday three weeks running (vs Man Utd on 21st August, West Ham on 28th August and Crystal Palace on 4th September).
  • Burnley striker Chris Wood has scored in three of his four league starts against Aston Villa, with each goal coming at a different ground (Elland Road, Villa Park, Turf Moor).
  • No side has scored fewer home goals in the Premier League this season than Burnley (5), with Chris Wood the only player to net more than once at Turf Moor for the Clarets this term (2).
  • In 16 away starts, Aston Villa keeper Emiliano Martínez has kept eight clean sheets in the Premier League. Of all keepers to have started at least 10 games on the road in the competition, the Argentine has the best clean sheet ratio (50%).

CHELSEA V WOLVES

6pm A fascinating fixture. Made more interesting by Chelsea sacking Frank Lampard on Monday! Of course, we all know that Chelsea have been on a poor run lately – they haven’t been playing good football since November but given Lampard’s success at the club as a player, we didn’t know if he would get sacked early or what would happen. We got our answer on Monday, and it appears he lost some elements of the dressing room. These days when that happens, there is only one outcome and that’s the manager gone. It will be fascinating to see the performance level this evening – do the players up their game now he’s gone.

This game isn’t worth a strong bet given the circumstances, but I feel Chelsea are worth having a small bet on at 1.63. Wolves have been very poor this season and just haven’t been playing like themselves. They aren’t grinding out wins and have been consistently giving away too many chances. I feel Lampard lost the dressing room a few weeks ago and we are only finding out about it now, and we’ll see a Chelsea side full of energy this evening. Against a very average Wolves side, that will get the job done in my view.

The Striker Says:
One point win Chelsea to beat Wolves at 1.63 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQchewlv

MATCH STATS

  • Chelsea have won five of their six home Premier League matches against Wolves (D1), winning 2-0 at Stamford Bridge last season.
  • Wolves, who were 2-1 winners at Molineux earlier in the campaign, are looking for their first top-flight league double over Chelsea since the 1974/75 season under manager Bill McGarry.
  • Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves have earned 23 points from their 13 league games in London (W6 D5 L2) – only Liverpool (31) and Manchester City (28) have won more away points in the capital in this time.
  • Chelsea have lost seven home Premier League matches under Frank Lampard (P28 W15 D6 L7), as many as his predecessors Antonio Conte and Maurizio Sarri did in 57 games combined (W40 D10 L7), while only Glenn Hoddle (17) and Claudio Ranieri (11) have lost more Premier League games at Stamford Bridge as Blues boss.
  • Chelsea have only lost their first two home top-flight matches in a calendar year three times previously, and not since 1993 when they lost to Man City and Sheffield Wednesday. The first time it occurred – in 1956 – their second home defeat was against Wolves.
  • Wolves haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 12 Premier League games, the longest current run in the competition. Wolves have conceded at least twice in each of their last three league games, last having a longer such run in the top-flight between February and April 2012 (nine games).
  • Wolves have only lost three consecutive league games under Nuno Espírito Santo once previously, losing three in a row in October/November 2018.
  • Chelsea’s Mason Mount has created 48 chances in 18 Premier League games this season, only four fewer than he created in 37 games last season (52). Mount is creating a chance on average every 32 minutes this season, the best ratio by an Englishman to play at least five games in a season for the Blues since Frank Lampard in 2009-10 (one every 28 mins).
  • In three league starts against Wolves, Tammy Abraham has scored six goals – three for Bristol City in 2016/17 and a hat-trick for current side Chelsea in September 2019; his two league appearances against them since scoring his treble have been both as a substitute, playing just 31 minutes combined.
  • Wolves forward Fábio Silva is only the second teenager to score more than once in the Premier League for Wolves, after Pedro Neto (also 2 goals). The only Portuguese teenagers to score more than twice in the Premier League are Ricardo Vaz Tê (3) and Cristiano Ronaldo (8).

BRIGHTON V FULHAM

7.30pm A massive fixture at the bottom of the Premier League. Fulham are currently five points behind Brighton as they sit in the relegation zone. However they do have a game in hand and a win here would put them within touching distance. Brighton will rightly feel a little unlucky to be where they are in the table – they haven’t played bad football but they just haven’t managed to get results. Fulham have had a good run recently and have given themselves a chance at staying up, but obviously tonight is a crunch fixture. If they lose it’s a very long way back given the gap that would be in place.

Brighton grinded out a good win again Leeds the weekend before the FA Cup Fourth Round, and they stayed in the Cup with a 2-1 win over Blackpool. Fulham were poor against Burnley losing 3-0, but they can’t be judged for losing to Man City and Chelsea prior to that – that’s pretty much expected. If I had to pick a winner, it would be Brighton, but I don’t agree with the odds here. Brighton look much too short at 2.12 in what should be a very close game. Brighton might get the job done but from a betting point of view I can’t ignore the draw price at 3.5. It’s hard to see anything other than a draw.

The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.5 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbriful

MATCH STATS

  • Brighton and Hove Albion are winless in their three Premier League meetings with Fulham (D2 L1), coming from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 in their only previous meeting at the Amex Stadium in September 2018.
  • Fulham have conceded nine goals in their last three away league games against Brighton (D1 L2) since their last win at the Amex in the November 2014 in the Championship, a 2-1 victory with goals from Hugo Rodallega and Lasse Vigen Christensen.
  • Fulham’s 0-0 draw with Brighton in December ended a run of 196 home league games without a goalless draw – the Cottagers haven’t drawn both games with an opponent goalless in a season since 2001/02, when they did so against Leicester City.
  • Brighton have won just one of their last 18 home Premier League games (D9 L8). The Seagulls have won just 18 of their 66 home games overall (27%), the lowest percentage in Premier League history among the 42 teams to play in at least three seasons.
  • Following their 1-0 win at Leeds last time out, Brighton are looking to secure back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since November 2019. However, each of their last five league wins have been away from home.
  • Fulham are winless in eight Premier League games (D5 L3), since a 2-1 win at Leicester in November. The Cottagers have alternated between not scoring (4) and scoring one goal (4) in each of those eight games, netting the opener against Manchester United last time out.
  • Both teams have scored in 12 of Brighton’s Premier League matches so far this season – no side has had more games with both teams finding the net so far this term.
  • All four of Brighton’s Premier League goals against Fulham have been scored by Glenn Murray, who is now on loan at Watford. Murray has had 31% of the Seagulls shots against Fulham (12/39), with 13 other players attempting 27 shots combined without scoring.
  • Brighton striker Neal Maupay has scored in each of his last three Premier League starts. The Frenchman last scored in four consecutive league starts in August/September 2018 with Brentford.
  • Ademola Lookman has been involved in more Premier League goals than any other Fulham player this season (3 goals, 3 assists). In his English league career, he’s only been involved in more goals in 2016-17 with Charlton and Everton (6 goals, 2 assists).

EVERTON V LEICESTER

8.15pm This might not be a headline fixture like some of the other top sides in the table, but it’s a huge game for both these sides as they battle for European football. Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs have all dropped a lot of points this season and that gives an opportunity for the likes of Everton and Leicester to dream about a top four finish. In reality a Europa League spot would be great, and they should do that. Everton are six points behind Leicester who sit in third, but they have two games in hand. A win for Everton would be massive, and although home advantage isn’t what it once was without crowds – they will surely view this has a fantastic chance to close the gap on the top four. Indeed, a win would put them ahead of Liverpool with a game in hand.

Leicester will have something to say about that though! They have been on a very good run of late – they haven’t quite played eye-catching football, but they have been remarkably solid while the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool have fallen away. They bossed the Chelsea game before the FA Cup Fourth Round and while Everton have played well this season, they have come up short against the top sides. I would have Leicester shorter than 2.7 and they are worth a small bet at the odds in what should be a close game. I feel they create more than Everton, and that will be the difference.

The Striker Says:
One point win Leicester to beat Everton at 2.7 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQevelcr

MATCH STATS

  • Everton have won their last two Premier League games against Leicester, with the Toffees looking to win three league games in a row against the Foxes for the first time since a run of four between 1977 and 1980.
  • Leicester City have won only two of their 14 away Premier League games against Everton (D7 L5), losing 2-1 last season.
  • Everton are looking to complete a league double over Leicester for only the second time in the last 15 seasons the sides have met, achieving it in 2016/17 when the Foxes were the reigning champions.
  • Having scored 14 goals in their first five Premier League games this season (2.8 per game), Everton have netted the same amount in their subsequent 12 (1.2 per game). However, the Toffees have improved defensively, conceding 16 goals in their first nine league games this season (1.8 per game), compared to five in their last eight (0.6 per game).
  • Leicester have won seven of their nine away Premier League games this season (D1 L1) – in only two top-flight seasons have the Foxes won more: 1965/66 (9, finished 7th) and 2015/16 (11, finished 1st).
  • Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has won 52.2% of his Premier League matches as Foxes boss (P67 W35 D12 L20), the best ratio of any permanent Foxes manager in their top-flight history.
  • Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti has lost three home league games this season – the Italian has only four at home in a season twice previously as a manager, doing so in both in 2006/07 and 2007/08 as AC Milan boss.
  • Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has been directly involved in eight goals in 11 Premier League games against Everton (6 goals, 2 assists), though he has managed no goals and just one shot on target in his last two games against the Toffees.
  • Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin has failed to score in any of his last five Premier League games, having led the goalscoring chart following 11 goals in his first 11 appearances this season.
  • Leicester’s James Maddison has been directly involved in seven goals in his last eight Premier League appearances (5 goals, 2 assists), one more than in his previous 33 games. Maddison has scored in his last three games and could be only the second Foxes player to score in four in a row, after Jamie Vardy who has done so on four previous occasions.

MANCHESTER UNITED V SHEFFIELD UNITED

8.15pm Another vital game for Manchester United! Every game is vital when you’re trying to keep up with Manchester City however. Given Sheffield United are rock bottom in the table, you don’t need me to tell you that United just can’t afford to slip up in games like this. They made life difficult for themselves against Fulham last week and then had a cracker with Liverpool in the FA Cup at the weekend, winning 3-2. I’m sure their fans are really enjoying being in the title race again, but you have to feel that they will come up short eventually. They just concede too many goals to be Champions.

Sheffield United have enjoyed the switch to FA Cup football from the Premier League, as a lot of struggling clubs do. They even managed to pick up their first Premier League win of the season against Newcastle in between. They didn’t play too badly in their 3-1 loss to Spurs, and although I can see United getting the job done I wouldn’t risk backing them at 1.29. That feels too short. I can see Sheffield United scoring given how many goals United leak, and Both Teams To Score looks worth backing at 2.1. I’d have it a shade of odds on.

The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 2.1 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmnushe

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester United have won their last seven home top-flight encounters with Sheffield United, a run that stretches back to August 1975.
  • Since a 2-1 win over Man Utd in August 1992 on the first ever day of the Premier League, Sheffield United have picked up just one point in eight top-flight meetings with the Red Devils (D1 L7).
  • Sheffield United have kept one clean sheet in their last 34 top-flight matches against Manchester United, a 1-0 home win in September 1972; their last away league clean sheet against the Red Devils was in a 1-0 win in April 1962, with Alan Hodgkinson in goal for the Blades.
  • Manchester United go into this match 35 points ahead of Sheffield United; they have won just one of their last six Premier League matches against teams they have had a 35+ point advantage in the table (D2 L3), losing two of their last three at home – 0-1 vs West Brom in April 2018 (50 pts ahead) and 0-2 vs Cardiff in May 2019 (35 pts ahead).
  • After a six-game winless run at Old Trafford (D3 L3), Manchester United have won four of their last five home league games (D1), keeping three clean sheets in this run. However, 50% of Man Utd’s total 12 home league goals this season have come in one game (6-2 vs Leeds).
  • Sheffield United have won any of their last 15 Premier League away games (D3 L12), haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 14 Premier League away games (D2 L12), and haven’t scored more than once in any of their last 20 Premier League away games (W2 D4 L14).
  • Manchester United’s Marcus Rashford has been directly involved in six goals in his three Premier League appearances against Sheffield United (3 goals, 3 assists), averaging a goal or assist every 43 minutes against the Blades.
  • Anthony Martial’s first Manchester United hat-trick was in their 3-0 home league win over Sheffield United last season – he has been directly involved in five of the Red Devils’ last six Premier League goals against the Blades (4 goals, 1 assist).
  • Bruno Fernandes has failed to either score or assist a goal in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since joining Manchester United last year.
  • All seven of Sheffield United striker David McGoldrick’s Premier League goals have come against four of the six ever-present sides in the competition (3 v Chelsea, 2 v Man Utd, 1 v Arsenal, 1 v Tottenham). He’s the highest goalscorer in Premier League history with 100% of his goals to come against sides to have played in every season.

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