THE STRIKER: previews Wednesday’s Premier League games between TOTTENHAM v SOUTHAMPTON and ASTON VILLA v MAN CITY with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

TOTTENHAM V SOUTHAMPTON

6pm What a fascinating evening ahead in the Premier League! I’ve said this before but there really is never a dull moment with Jose Mourinho. On the eve of the Carabao Cup Final, Spurs have sacked Mourinho and although Spurs were really struggling in the race for a Top Four finish, I don’t think many football fans saw the sacking coming this week – especially with the Cup Final on Sunday. It probably highlights just how toxic things were behind the scenes and it just seems like a classic end to a Mourinho job these days. I know Spurs were really poor that saw them go from “title challengers” to mid-table, but then I felt Mourinho seemed to turn things around – something he usually doesn’t do. Alas, it seems behind the scenes things only got worse, and now he doesn’t even get the chance to win a trophy at the weekend.

That being said, they were playing Man City to that chance was small. To add to the drama, Spurs are one of the sides involved in the European Super League – so there’s a lot going on heading into this fixture! I can’t wait to see what kind of reaction we get from the players, if we get an immense performance it will show how much they wanted Mourinho out in my opinion. We’re going to have some very strong opinion on BETDAQ Betting Exchange either way on the Spurs price here. I’m in the Spurs camp here at 1.85 – for me they are too big at the odds. They meet Southampton at an excellent time as The Saints are on a pretty poor run at the moment. They have been playing reasonably OK, but they have been conceding too many goals and I feel Spurs will create enough chances to win the game. I’m happy to keep stakes reasonably small given everything we’ve seen this week, but it’s a good time to be against Southampton and Spurs are big enough to back at 1.85.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Tottenham to beat Southampton at 1.85 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQtotsth

MATCH STATS

  • Tottenham have won eight of their last nine Premier League home games against Southampton, with the only exception a 1-2 loss at White Hart Lane in May 2016.
  • Southampton have scored in each of their last 10 Premier League meetings with Spurs. However, Saints have only kept one clean sheet themselves in that run and have only won three of the 10 games (D1 L6).
  • Tottenham haven’t lost a home Premier League game on a Wednesday since a 0-1 loss to Leicester in January 2016, winning 10 of their 11 such matches since then (D1), while scoring 25 goals and conceding just four.
  • Southampton have picked up just 10 points from 15 Premier League games in 2021 (W3 D1 L11), fewer than any other side since the turn of the year.
  • Southampton have drawn each of their last three Premier League away games against London sides – only once previously have the Saints drawn four consecutive trips to the capital in the top-flight (between August 1979 – August 1980).
  • José Mourinho has lost nine of his 41 home games in charge of Tottenham Hotspur in all competitions. Across his two spells with Chelsea he lost nine of 156 home games, but has never suffered 10 home defeats at any of his previous clubs.
  • Son Heung-min scored four goals in Tottenham’s 5-2 win against Southampton in the reverse fixture, with all four being assisted by Harry Kane. It’s the only occasion in Premier League history of a player scoring four goals in a match with all of them assisted by the same player.
  • Tottenham have scored four Premier League hat-tricks against Southampton, more than they have vs any other side. These were scored by Steffen Iversen (March 2000), Jermain Defoe (December 2004), Harry Kane (December 2017) and Son Heung-min (September 2020).
  • Danny Ings has been involved in six goals in his five games against Spurs for Southampton in all competitions (5 goals, 1 assist), accounting for 86% of the total goals Saints have scored in these games (6/7).
  • Spurs’ Harry Kane has been involved in 16 goals in 12 Premier League games against Southampton (10 goals, 6 assists), more than he has vs any other opponent in the competition. He’s one of just five players to have a hat-trick of goals and a hat-trick of assists against the same opponent in Premier League games, alongside Dennis Bergkamp against Leicester, Didier Drogba against Wigan, Teddy Sheringham against Leeds and Raheem Sterling against West Ham.

ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER CITY

8.15pm This is a very interesting game from a betting point of view. Much like the Spurs price in the early game, there will be a lot of opinions on the Man City price here at 1.41. I have to say, I am in the backing camp again here. City may have lost ground at the top of the table against Leeds, but they still played very well. The xG finished 2.56 to 0.09 to City and they were just unlucky to concede twice. I did note before the game that City could easily take their eye off the ball in that fixture with an important midweek fixture in the Champions League. They can afford to do that given their lead, but I feel they’ll be more focused on this fixture given the lead has closed and also Guardiola will want a reaction after losing to Chelsea in the FA Cup.

For me Aston Villa are there for the beating at the moment. You only have to look at their xG figures to see that. They started the season very strongly and to be fair to them they have been one of my favourite teams to back this season, but you can see recently that their level has dropped and their results reflect that. They just aren’t creating the same volume of chances that they were towards the start of the season and they have also been leaking chances too. I know the City odds at 1.41 won’t be for everyone, but they should be closer to 1.3 here and the 1.41 is worth a very confident bet. City to get back to winning ways in style, and I wouldn’t put anyone off some handicap lines either.

The Striker Says:
Four points win Manchester City to beat Aston Villa at 1.41 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQavlmci

MATCH STATS

  • Aston Villa have lost 11 of their last 13 Premier League meetings with Man City (W1 D1), with their only victory during this period coming in September 2013 (3-2).
  • Manchester City have won their last four Premier League meetings with Aston Villa by an aggregate score of 15-1. Indeed, the Citizens have scored more Premier League goals against Villa than they have vs any other opponent (83).
  • Manchester City have won each of their last 14 Premier League games on Wednesdays, the longest winning run on a specific day other than Saturday in the competition’s history. Meanwhile, Aston Villa have lost all four of their Wednesday games this season.
  • Aston Villa have lost eight of their last 10 Premier League games against the league leaders, with those defeats coming by an aggregate score of 22-5. The exceptions in this run were a 1-0 win against Chelsea (March 2014) and a goalless draw with Man City (November 2015).
  • Aston Villa have picked up more points away from home (24) than they have at home (20) in the Premier League this season. The last full top-flight campaign where the Villans won fewer points at home than on the road was 2012-13 (20 home, 21 away).
  • Man City have won each of their last nine Premier League away games and could become the first team to win 10 in a row on the road in the competition on more than one occasion (won 11 in a row between May-December 2017).
  • Man City haven’t lost consecutive league games since December 2018. However, three of the Citizens’ four league defeats this season have been at the Etihad Stadium.
  • Man City striker Sergio Agüero has scored 10 goals in his last six starts against Aston Villa in all competitions, including a hat-trick in a 6-1 victory in this exact fixture last season.
  • Aston Villa top scorer Ollie Watkins has scored in his last two Premier League games – he’s yet to score in three in a row in the competition.
  • Man City striker Gabriel Jesus has scored 49 goals in 125 Premier League appearances, and could become just the second Brazilian to reach 50 in the competition after Roberto Firmino.