EURO 2024: The Ultra previews Friday’s second quarter final between PORTUGAL v FRANCE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
PORTUGAL v FRANCE
8pm The blockbuster Friday from Euro 2024 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE continues as Portugal meet France in the second Quarter-Final. Both sides came through a dramatic evening on Monday with France scoring late to beat Belgium and then Portugal needing penalties to beat Slovakia. The Portugal players saw France scoring while they were warming up! We also had the drama of a missed penalty from Ronaldo in extra-time but we should have an excellent Quarter-Final here. Both sides had a very cagey Last 16 game, and it is hard to see a very open and attacking game here too. We tend to get very cagey affairs at this level when the top sides meet.
There’s no doubt that we have a huge amount of attacking talent on both sides, but cagey tactics tend to take over with the stakes so high. It will be very interesting to see if France continue with their troubles in front of goal. Anyone who isn’t a fan of xG might question the French performances just looking at their results, but they have been creating a huge amount. They’ve created an xG of 7 from non-penalty situations so far this tournament, and scored zero goals from those chances! Portugal did create enough to beat Slovakia, but again couldn’t find the net. The market is expecting a reasonably cagey game with Under 2.5 goals the clear favourite at 1.62 in the goals market.
We have a reasonably open betting heat in the match odds market. Not quite as open as the Spain v Germany game earlier in the day! France come into the game as the favourites at 2.46 with Portugal 3.55 and the draw is 3.15 at the time of writing. We have two of the most iconic footballers in the world meeting here with Mbappe and Ronaldo, but neither have stolen the headlines so far at this tournament. Mbappe had a broken nose in the Group stage, but still finished with a bigger xG created than the whole England side in their Group – that was quite the stat! Ronaldo has played well too without getting the glory – he has an xG of very close to 3.0 but has yet to find the net. He took the penalty miss in the extra-time very badly on Monday when crying in the team huddle afterwards, but then corrected it in the shootout and with Portugal through it’s all forgotten now.
Although they haven’t be able to take their chances, France have an average xG created of 1.98 at Euro 2024 which is very impressive. They’ve been exceptional at the back, and their average xG conceded is under 1.0 at 0.84. Portugal have an average xG conceded under 1.0 too, just a tiny bit under at 0.99! They have the same figure as France going forward, and on paper the sides are very evenly matched on performance level. Obviously you would have to give France the edge looking at their squad and how they performed at the World Cup, but that is reflected in the odds with them being favourites.
I don’t see a huge amount of value in the match odds market here. It’s hard to argue with the 2.46 on France – for me that is the correct price and thus doesn’t offer value. At the end of the day, betting is all about getting value. I do expect another cagey game here; although both sides have created a lot they have both been superb at the back. As I said above, these big games at the top level just tend to be cagey affairs at this stage of the tournament. Under 2.5 goals offers a small amount of value at 1.62 in my opinion, however I do like Under 1.5 goals at 2.9. I wouldn’t rule out a 0-0 here and extra-time needed, and in my opinion if there is going to be a winner it’ll be 1-0 either way. A fascinating game awaits!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 1.5 goals at 2.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PorFra
