EURO 2024: The Ultra previews Monday’s games between CROATIA v ITALY and ALBANIA v SPAIN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CROATIA V ITALY
8pm A new week begins at Euro 2024, and we kick it off on Betdaq Betting Exchange with crunch time in Group B. Spain are sitting pretty at the top of the Group heading into the final fixtures, and they have the “easiest” fixture on paper against Albania. All eyes will be on the massive clash between Croatia and Italy, and that’s where we start the evening! Croatia are definitely on the backfoot after a 2-2 draw against Albania in their last fixture – as I said in my preview heading into that game, Croatia’s plan would have been to beat Albania and Spain beat Italy. Spain did the job, but Croatia couldn’t complete the task. It’s been said for a while now that this Croatian midfield is ageing and they’ve kept proving people wrong, but maybe this is the tournament where it finally kicks in. Still, a win here could change absolutely everything and we have a fascinating game ahead. We have an open betting heat, and Italy come into the game as favourites at 2.46 with Croatia 3.3 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. A draw will be good enough for Italy here, and they could easily approach this game with a classic Italian cagey draw in mind!
Although we’ve had plenty of debate on Croatia, I actually feel they have been playing very good football. If they exit the narrative might be the midfield has past his peak, but if you look at the xG figures that couldn’t be further from the truth. They started with a 3-0 loss to Spain, but actually finished the game with a higher xG created. Once again, they finished the Albania draw with a very high xG but the worry has to be why aren’t they taking their chances. Their xG created has been close to 3.0 twice now, and they only have one point to show for it. They’ve been sloppy at the back as well which is another worry, however I do feel that the 2.46 on Italy is too short here. Italy created next to nothing against Spain, and I wouldn’t have liked to see them create a little more against Albania despite a shock start after going behind so early. A draw isn’t a bad result for Italy here either, so they could easily go into their shell a little. I’m keen to keep stakes low here because at the end of the day you want to see Croatia actually take their chances but looking at the under-lining numbers Croatia have been playing some excellent football they just don’t have the results to show. Now it’s crunch time, I’m going to have a small bet on them turning things around!
The Ultra Says:
One point win Croatia to beat Italy at 3.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CroIta
ALBANIA V SPAIN
8pm We finish Monday night with Albania against Spain, and most football fans will be expecting a routine win for Spain here. They are already through, and this might actually be a nice time for them to rest some players. That could definitely be a trading angle on the team news, so keep an eye for that. Spain come into the game as the hot favourites at 1.47 with Albania 8.0 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing. The general feeling coming into this Group was that Albania were going to be the whipping boys, and I’m sure they were absolutely buzzing with that last minute equaliser to get a draw against Croatia – they were handed an exceptionally tough Group and they go into the final game with a very slim chance of getting through considering the best third-placed finishes too; that’s a pretty good showing! Albania have been pretty good to watch too; they recorded the fastest ever European Championship goal against Italy and then got that dramatic draw against Croatia where they created a decent volume of chances. Spain have kept two clean sheets, but they have had very different experiences – Croatia created a huge amount of chances but couldn’t find the net while Italy created next to nothing.
You’d have to expect Albania to throw the kitchen sink at Spain here, and it will be interesting to see what they can create with a view on Spain heading into the knockout games. There is a gulf in class between the sides, but the 1.47 doesn’t jump off the page on Spain – I would rather wait for the team news and see them name a very strong side before taking that price given the situation. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.81 with Both Teams To Score at 2.06. The one thing you’d say about the way Albania have approached games is that they aren’t going to die wondering here; they are going to have a go at Spain and that should open up the game. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Albania score at some stage but I do feel that the 1.81 on Over 2.5 goals offers more value than Both Teams To Score. If Albania adopt an attacking approach that will give Spain plenty of chances, their direct way of playing could easily see them rack up a few goals here. I feel Overs is worth a confident bet at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlbSpa
