EURO 2024: The Ultra previews Tuesday’s 5pm games between FRANCE v POLAND and NETHERLANDS v AUSTRIA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FRANCE V POLAND
5pm We have a cracking Tuesday at Euro 2024 on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as we decide who is heading through to the Last 16 from Group C and Group D! This is the first day we’ve had four fixtures; it was quiet on Sunday and Monday waiting until 8pm for the games. We kick off the action in Group D as France meet Poland. Unfortunately for Poland, they are already out of the tournament after two losses against Netherlands and Austria – they scored in both games but they weren’t good enough. As I have highlighted in each preview of them, they are a side in decline and this just highlights that. They fluffed their lines in an easy qualifying Group, and there’s ever chance we might not even see them at the next major tournament given their level of play at the moment. For France, their main worry has been the broken nose for Mbappe – he didn’t start in the 0-0 draw against the Netherlands and there’s a good chance that we don’t see him here either. France played well against the Netherlands but they just couldn’t find the net – there wasn’t a huge volume of chances in the game but France finished with an xG created over three times what they conceded. Given Netherlands v Austria have a tough game ahead, France are still big favourites to top the Group.
France come into this game as the red-hot favourites. They are trading as short as 1.31 at the time of writing which is the shortest price of the day, while Poland are 11.5 and the draw is 6.2. Poland have been outplayed twice, and up against the World Cup Finalists here it’s hard to see that changing. As I mentioned above, although France failed to find the net against the Netherlands they played very well and they created a lot in the second half against Austria too. They have impressive xG figures, they just need to start converting their chances now. It will be interesting to see what kind of approach Poland take here given they are out already; it doesn’t make much sense for them to sit back and just defend to play for a 0-0. I feel they have to adopt a more open and attacking approach, which will play into the hands of France in my opinion. I like France to cover the 1.5 goal handicap at 1.9 – I couldn’t put anyone off that bet but I’m going to go for something at a bigger price here. I feel like France have been playing good football, and this could be the time they finally blow a side away. I like Any Other Home Win (France to score four or more goals and win) in the Correct Score market at 4.7.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 4.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FraPld
NETHERLANDS V AUSTRIA
5pm We finish Group D with Netherlands clashing with Austria. With France having the “easiest” fixture on paper against Poland, they are expected to win and then this becomes a massive game for these two sides in the race for second. However, after everyone had played two games, Austria topped the table for the best third-placed teams. Given we finish Group A and B before we get to these games, we could easily be looking at a situation where both sides are effectively through if Scotland and Albania fail to win. Netherlands come into the game as the favourites at 2.26 with Austria 3.9 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. This is going to be a very interesting game – Netherlands created a very low xG against France and after a very poor World Cup on the attacking front, you would have to wonder are they just becoming a limited side going forward. They actually have a lot of attacking flare in their squad but they seem to play a very cagey style in major tournaments. Austria struggled against France but it was a pretty even game in the first half before France took over in the second half.
They finished with an impressive xG against Poland though, and after two games each Austria have created more chances than the Netherlands. Ralf Rangnick has Austria very well set-up and organised, and I feel the 2.26 is too short on the Netherlands here. They just haven’t created enough to suggest that they are going to blow away a well-drilled Austrian side. I definitely see a closer game than the odds of 2.26 suggest, and from a value point of view I’m happy with a Netherlands lay. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very cagey game here; a draw would be a decent result for both sides as well given the best third-placed situation too. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.98 and I really expected to see that trading shorter when I clicked into the market. I wouldn’t put anyone off a position on Unders, but I find it hard to get away from the Netherlands lay at the odds. I feel Austria will surprise a few people here; I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win but it’s a nice option to have the draw on our side too.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Netherlands to beat Austria at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NetAus
