LA LIGA FRIDAY: The Ultra previews ALAVES v VILLARREAL with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ALAVES V VILLARREAL
8pm Friday night football on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week comes from La Liga as Alaves host Villarreal! Not quite as glamorous as some of the midweek Champions League fixtures we have had, but we do have an interesting betting heat. Villarreal come into the game as the favourites at 2.22 with Alaves 3.6 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. The Yellow Submarine currently sit fourth, and they are in a comfortable position for the Champions League spots – they have a nice eleven point gap to Real Betis in fifth. Alaves are under much more pressure – they are in 16th place and nervously glancing over their shoulder at the relegation zone – they only have a two point cushion.
Alaves have had a tough season – you’d know that by where they are in the table – but they’ve had a tough 2026. Only two wins to date, and what about that loss to Valencia. They led 2-1 into stoppage time, only to concede a penalty and lose 3-2, with two players sent off to boot. When you’re under pressure in a relegation fight, that one hurts. In fairness to Alaves, their performance levels have been better than their results – their average xG created of 1.34 is the tenth best attacking figure in La Liga this season – a real mid-table figure. At the back, their average xG conceded of 1.45 is equally mid-table. The huge problem for Alaves this season though is that they haven’t been converting their chances.
Alaves are scoring less than a goal a game on average, and that’s why they are in a relegation battle. Villarreal will see this as an excellent chance for three points; but I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 2.22 here. They have been massively over-performing this season. Their average xG created of 1.37 is only marginally better than Alaves – ninth best in La Liga – and their average xG conceded of 1.48 is actually slightly worse. They’ve been on fire in front of goal though, and they’ve also been getting away with things at the back. If anything looking at the bare figures, the 2.22 feels a little short on Villarreal here.
It’s hard to have a confident bet on the goals market given Alaves have been under-performing in front of goal and Villarreal have been over-performing. I’m happy to stay out of the goals market here, and I’m also happy to keep stakes low. I know Villarreal have been getting results this season and they deserve massive credit for grinding out so many results, but the 2.22 does feel too short here and I’m happy to lay the away win from a value point of view. I just expect a closer game than the odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Villarreal to beat Alaves at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LLAlVi
