LA LIGA FRIDAY: The Ultra previews ATHLETIC BILBAO v ELCHE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATHLETIC BILBAO V ELCHE
8pm Friday Night Football on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week comes from La Liga this week! Athletic Bilbao host Elche in a big game for both sides for different reasons. The home side need to start putting some wins together as they sit in mid-table away from the European spots while for Elche every point is massive as they are in a relegation battle. It’s no surprise that Athletic Bilbao come into the game as the favourites at 1.68 with Elche 6.0 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing.
Athletic Bilbao have been one of the more frustrating sides in La Liga this season. Their underlying numbers are genuinely impressive, yet the goals column tells a completely different story. They have an average xG created of 1.61, which is the joint-third best attacking figure in La Liga alongside Atlético de Madrid and Real Betis – only Barcelona and Real Madrid have been creating more. However, they come into the weekend sitting in ninth place in La Liga and it’s easy to see why – their actual goals scored average sits at just 1.13. They are having a mare in front of goal trying to convert their chances, and that’s been a major issue this season. Even against a side like Elche who are there for the taking, you’d have to worry about Athletic Bilbao getting over the line.
There’s been nothing wrong with Athletic Bilbao at the back – they have an average xG conceded of 1.14 is the third best defensive figure in La Liga. They are under-performing there too though – they actual goals conceded average is 1.42. You could make the argument strongly that Bilbao are the third best side in the league, yet they sit in mid-table. There’s a huge amount of points left out there. It will be interesting to see can they get the job done here – Elche are a very average side. Their average xG created of 1.31 is mid-table standard, and they are in the bottom five on defensive figures. They should avoid relegation with that level, but you can see why they are getting dragged into the relegation battle for the time being. They come into this matchday with just a one point cushion on the bottom three.
Despite Bilbao’s issues in front of goal, I still feel there is value in the home win here at 1.68. The gulf in underlying numbers is quite clear, and Elche are desperately short of the quality needed to go toe-to-toe away from home here. Obviously with the worries outlined above though, this is a game for small stakes. Athletic have the third best xG numbers in La Liga – even if they are not converting at the rate they should, the sheer volume of chances they create means Elche will be under constant pressure, and obviously Elche have been conceding plenty of chances too. It’s hard to have a strong opinion on the goals market given the issues for Bilbao – but a home game against a relegation threatened side is exactly when you’d expect them to finally get some confidence back in the side. I’m happy with a two point bet on the home win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Athletic Bilbao to beat Elche at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LLAtEl
