CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FRIDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews the Champions League quarter final on Friday between BARCELONA V BAYERN MUNICH with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
BARCELONA V BAYERN MUNICH
8pm We love the Champions League because of fixtures like this. Two European giants meet on Friday at Estadio da Luz, with the only negative being we only get one leg with no fans instead of two drama filled full stadium European nights. Those days will return, but for now we get to enjoy these two go head-to-head.
Bayern were run away winners of the Bundesliga again this season, and their xG numbers were incredible. Many football fans write off the Bundesliga because Bayern are so far ahead, but their underlining process is seriously impressive. Barcelona finished second behind Real Madrid in La Liga with the majority of their problems coming from defence. They have simply leaked too many goals, and with Bayern creating chances for fun I can understand why the Germans are clear favourites.
Barcelona don’t many games at 3.6, but that’s the price they are for this one! Despite the unusually big (for them) price on Barcelona, I don’t see them as value here. They have been very poor this season and apart from some magic from Messi it’s hard to see how they can win here. Although that being said, who can write off Messi?
Bayern Munich strolled past Chelsea last week and that was a nice warm up considering the Bundesliga finished earlier than most other leagues in Europe. xG says that Bayern have been the best side in the Champions League this season, and xG also says Barcelona should be very worried. Barcelona got past Napoli last week, but they barely created anything. That has to be a massive worry against a side creating an xG of over 3 per game.
You can argue that Barcelona have been very lucky in the Champions League this season too. They have conceded 6 goals, but given up an xG of over 12. A side like Bayern won’t miss chances like that and with Barcelona struggling at the back all season, the Germans can send the Spanish packing here. Bayern are worth backing at 2.04 against an unusually poor Barcelona side this season.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Bayern Munich to beat Barcelona at 2.04 with BETDAQ Exchange.
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