FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BOCHUM v HOFFENHEIM and REAL SOCIEDAD v REAL MADRID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOCHUM V HOFFENHEIM
7.30pm Friday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from the Bundesliga and La Liga this week! No doubt all eyes will be on Real Madrid before their Champions League Semi-Final next week, but we kick off the action in the Bundesliga as Bochum host Hoffenheim. We’re at the stage of the season now when every game is massive for Bochum as they sit in the relegation playoff position heading into this weekend. It did look like they might avoid the bottom three but they’ve been on a terrible run lately – they’re without a win in their last eight Bundesliga games since the high of beating Bayern Munich 3-2! At the same time, and somewhat ironically, Mainz have gone five games unbeaten since getting tonked 8-1 by Bayern Munich to move ahead of Bochum! Turns out it was better to lose to Bayern than beat them! Things are obviously still very tight; Bochum and Mainz both have the same amount of points – Union Berlin are two ahead of them and although they have put a few losses together you’d expect them to survive while Koln now have five points to make up on Bochum and Mainz. It’s definitely looking between Bochum and Mainz for that relegation playoff spot.
A few weeks ago I felt the best option for Mainz was actually getting that relegation playoff spot rather than going down, but here we are. Bochum come into this game as the favourites at 2.28 with Hoffenheim 3.15 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. I have to say I was very surprised to see Bochum trading as short as 2.28 when I clicked into the market; I expected a much more open betting heat. Hoffenheim are no world beaters, but they are comfortably a mid-table Bundesliga side. The under-lining numbers explain the odds however; Bochum actually create marginally more than Hoffenheim, and they are better at the back too. You could quite easily call them unlucky to be where they are in the table, but the reality is they aren’t converting their chances and they are conceding far too many sloppy goals too. Bochum’s average xG created is 1.47 but their actual goals scored is 1.13 – their average xG conceded is 1.54 but they are conceding an average of two goals per game. Hoffenheim have the worst defensive figure in the Bundesliga, and this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.53 and that looks cracking value to start the weekend – a five star NAP!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BocHof
REAL SOCIEDAD V REAL MADRID
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night as Real Sociedad host Real Madrid. The team news could be a massive trading opportunity here given Real Madrid are playing in the Champions League Semi-Final first leg away to Bayern Munich on Tuesday night. La Liga moved this fixture forward to give them extra time, but I can’t see anyone with a knock or anything like that being risked – especially after the El Clasico win last weekend giving them an eleven point lead at the top of the table. The situation with a huge game on Tuesday night and the lead at the top of the table is reflected in the odds here. We have an exceptionally open betting heat, there’s only two ticks between the sides with Real Sociedad the marginal favourites. Real Sociedad are trading 2.8 with Real Madrid 2.82 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. This is definitely a game that’s going to move on team news, so it’s fastest fingers first in that area! Real Sociedad will be eying this game as a chance to get a bonus three points in a fixture that they wouldn’t have expected to win – they start the weekend with a three point cushion over Real Betis in the race for sixth – neither of them can catch the top five.
This is going to be a game for small stakes prior to the team news; I am going into the game with a view that Real Madrid do opt to rest players and we get somewhat of a second XI here. Obviously that’s massively open to debate, but it’s my personal view. You would be surprised to see Jude Bellingham start for example; he’s the most important player and his full focus will be on Tuesday night in Munich – what he did in El Clasico was incredible though; it’s hard to believe he’s only 20 years old. Real Madrid have the best attacking figure in La Liga this season along with the best defensive figure too. With some changes, you’d expect them to create less and possibly be more cagey at the back. Real Sociedad have an average xG conceded of only 1.11 this season which is the second best defensive figure in La Liga and I’m happy with a small bet on Under 2.5 goals at 1.79. I would be surprised if we saw plenty of goals here; we have the two best sides at the back in the league and you could make a strong argument both would be happy with a draw too.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SciRea
