FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews DORTMUND v ST PAULI and ALAVES v REAL VALLADOLID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V ST PAULI
7.30pm Domestic football returns on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with Friday night football from Europe! We have action from the Bundesliga and La Liga in our usual Friday night slot with most football fans glad to see the back of yet another International break. I have to say the schedule this season has been unsatisfactory with so many International breaks so early in the season. We’ve only had six matchdays in the Bundesliga for example and there’s already been two International breaks; plus there’s another one coming in November! Anyway, we kick off Friday night from the Bundesliga with Dortmund hosting St Pauli. Everyone will be expecting a comfortable home win here, and Dortmund come into the game as the red-hot favourites against the Bundesliga new boys. Dortmund are trading 1.31 with St Pauli 11.0 and the draw is 6.4 at the time of writing. Neither side will be happy with their start to the season. St Pauli were always going to struggle given the massive gulf in class between the Bundesliga and the Bundesliga 2, but they are just about staying out of the bottom three at the moment as they sit in 15th with four points from six games.
Dortmund have had an average start and went into the International break sitting in seven place after losing to Union Berlin. Ten point from six games isn’t a great return, and after coming so close to the title in 2022/23 when they had it in their own hands at home on the final day, they look miles away from even contending for the title now. Times change quickly in football, especially in the Bundesliga! Dortmund have the sixth best attacking figure, so they can’t really complain with where they are in the table – looking at the under-lining numbers I would say St Pauli have been a little unlucky. They are scoring only half of their chances created, and if they can finally start converting their chances they should have a decent chance of staying up which should be their only goal this season. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.48, but it’s also expecting Dortmund to do most of the work with Both Teams To Score trading 1.89. I feel St Pauli have created enough to get on the score sheet at some stage, and the value is with BTTS. It’s good to have domestic football back!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorStp
ALAVES V REAL VALLADOLID
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night as Alaves host Real Valladolid. After coming up from the Segunda playoffs in the 2022/23 season, Alaves have settled very nicely into La Liga life and they’ve managed to make themselves a mid-table side. Real Valladolid will be hoping for some inspiration because they’ve been up and down between La Liga and the Segunda like a yo-yo in recent seasons. Down in 2020/21, up in 2021/22, down again in 2022/23, back up in 2023/24 – now they sit in the relegation zone to go back down again! Five points from nine games leaves them in trouble already – I know they already faced a battle to stay up given the gulf in class between the top tier and the other tiers given the money in the top tiers at the moment but their under-lining figures make for some poor reading. Their average xG created is only 1.01 which is the third worst attacking figure in La Liga – they are only converting a little over half of those chances too so clearly scoring goals is going to be a massive issue this season. Their average xG conceded is very high too; the second worst defensive figure and at the moment they are conceding over two goals a game on average.
There actually aren’t many positives when you look at Real Valladolid, and it already looks like it’s going to be a very long season for them. Alaves haven’t really been creating a lot at the start of the season – their average xG created is only 1.19 – but they have been grinding out results in classic Alaves fashion. They have been a little sloppy at the back, but the question here is can Real Valladolid actually take advantage of that. Alaves come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.73 with Real Valladolid 5.7 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. Since winning on the opening week of the season against Espanyol, it’s been tough times for Valladolid – only two draws since, both 0-0 with home advantage. Alaves went into the International break off the back of three losses, but they had to play Real Madrid and Barcelona so that run is easily forgiven. I’m going to keep stakes small here, but as I said there aren’t many positives looking at Valladolid and it’s hard to see past a home win here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Alaves to beat Real Valladolid at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlaVal
