FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BAYER LEVERKUSEN v STUTTGART and ALAVES v MALLORCA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V STUTTGART
7.30pm November kicks off with Friday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have our usual fixture list with one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga, and we have two fascinating markets too. We begin the evening with undoubtedly the highlight of the night as Bayer Leverkusen host Stuttgart in the Bundesliga – so far this season Leverkusen have struggled to get over the line in games and they are five points behind Bayern Munich already. They recently played each other, and given there’s such a gulf in class between the top sides and the rest in Germany, that’s already going to be a very difficult gap to close. Stuttgart ended up pipping Bayern Munich for second last season to finish behind Leverkusen, and while they have dropped points this season as well, they do have the third best attacking figure behind Bayern Munich and Leverkusen this season at the moment. Bayer Leverkusen come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.6 with Stuttgart 5.7 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing. The market is expecting a very entertaining affair with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.4!
Leverkusen should definitely be a little closer to Bayern at the top of the table – they have an average xG created of over 2.0 so there’s been no problems going forward – the problems this season have been at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.3 which is in the top five defensive figures, however they have been conceding way more than that. Their actual goals conceded figure is closer to two a game – as the saying goes you don’t win many games conceding two goals! It’s easy to see why the market is expecting plenty of goals here – Leverkusen have been conceding goals for fun and Stuttgart enjoy playing an open game too. Stuttgart actually have a very similar story – their average xG conceded is only 1.35 but they are conceding an average of two goals a game too. Both sides have played eight Bundesliga games each, and Under 2.5 goals has only landed twice – two 1-1 draws and one of those was Bayern Munich v Bayer Leverkusen! This game screams goals, and while Over 2.5 goals is tempting at 1.4, I prefer Both Teams To Score at 1.5. These two enjoy playing an open game and they are making a lot of mistakes at the back – we should see goals here in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Both Teams To Score at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LevStu
ALAVES V MALLORCA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night as Alaves host Mallorca. We have an exceptionally open betting heat here with Alaves the favourites at 2.64 with home advantage, Mallorca are trading 3.3 and the draw is 3.05 at the time of writing. Mallorca have made an excellent start to the season and they’re only two points off the top four coming into this weekend while Alaves have had a really difficult start – they are just one point off the relegation zone at the moment! I knew we were going to have an open market looking at the shape of the game, but I have to say I was surprised to see Alaves trading as short as 2.64 when I clicked into the market. Alaves have had a lot of problems at the back, their average xG conceded isn’t too bad at 1.31 – basically a mid-table figure in La Liga – but they have been very sloppy and are conceding more than that. Mallorca have kept their games very tight, and they’ve actually conceded the second lowest goal total so far in La Liga. Only four of their eleven games have had Over 2.5 goals, so obviously Unders backers are on top there!
Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.51 here so clearly the market is expecting a quiet game. For all that Mallorca are conceding less than one goal per game on average, their average xG conceded tells a different story. They actually have the fifth worst defensive figure in La Liga this season, and it’s fair to say that they’ve rode their luck at the back – they are more-or-less only conceding half the chances that they are giving away. I would definitely be interested in the Alaves lay here, just purely from a point of view that I expected the market to be more open and Alaves are hardly a team playing great football at the moment. However, that Mallorca xG conceded figure definitely puts me off that position. I feel this is a game for small stakes, and while I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 I’m happy with a small bet on the draw at 3.05. Both sides have their negatives, and I feel they’ll simply cancel each other out.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.05 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlaMal
