FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews UNION BERLIN v FREIBURG and RAYO VALLECANO v LAS PALMAS both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
UNION BERLIN V FREIBURG
7.30pm It’s been a hectic week from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE, and we move onto Friday night football! We had some top class fixtures from the Champions League this week, and while we might not have a glamorous fixture list on Friday, we do have two interesting markets. We have our usual Friday night slot of one fixture from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga, and we kick things off in the Bundesliga with Union Berlin hosting Freiburg. We have a very open betting heat, and Union Berlin come into the game as the favourites with home advantage. Union Berlin are trading 2.54 with Freiburg 3.2 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. Union Berlin have been bouncing up and down the table in remarkable fashion – after finishing in the Champions League spots in 2022/23 they just avoided relegation last season! They actually finished with the same amount of points as Bochum in the relegation playoff spot. They come into this matchday sitting back up in seventh, but their under-lining figures do tell a different story and it’s not pretty. At the moment, they have the joint-worst attacking figure in the league.
Their average xG created is only 1.17, and they are struggling to even take those chances too. What has worked for them this season is their defence – currently conceding less than a goal a game on average, and their average xG conceded at 1.21 is a good figure too. That’s actually the fourth best defensive figure in the Bundesliga, but obviously the attacking issues are a massive problem. Freiburg have also been very impressive at the back – they have the third best defensive figure at 1.16. They’ve obviously been better going forward and while they are beside each other in the table, Freiburg are clearly the better side here. I don’t discount the fact that Union are grinding out results, and they have home advantage here which is a big factor, however I still feel that the 2.54 is too short on a home win. I would have an even more open market, and from a value point of view I’m happy with a small Union lay at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Union Berlin to beat Freiburg at 2.54 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UniFrb
RAYO VALLECANO V LAS PALMAS
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night football as Rayo Vallecano host Las Palmas. As I said above, this isn’t the most glamorous fixture this week but we do have an interesting market. Rayo Vallecano are the odds on favourites at 1.86 with Las Palmas 5.3 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. Las Palmas were always going to be under the pump this season given where they finished last season and their performance figures – they come into this matchday sitting in the relegation zone. They are clealy struggling all over the pitch – under-performing up front and at the back too. Their average xG created is only 1.25 and they are conceding a figure of 1.51 – that’s the third worst defensive figure in La Liga at the moment too. Rayo Vallecano are marginally conceding more chances than they are creating, and as regular readers will know a performance level like that more times than not lands you in mid-table which is where Rayo Vallecano are. Rayo Vallecano games have been quiet too – Over 2.5 goals has only collected in five of their eleven games.
Las Palmas games have had more goals, mainly because they have been conceding so many. They’ve only managed to keep one clean sheet so far this season, and things could be even more bleak for them bar the two recent wins against Girona and Valencia. Probably the most surprising result for Las Palmas this season was there 1-1 draw with Real Madrid! I would definitely lean towards a Rayo Vallecano win, but there’s little value in their price in my opinion. 1.86 looks the right price to me – I know Las Palmas are there for the taking but I’d rather stay away from the goals market here. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.74 that looks a very nice position – Las Palmas are conceding a lot of chances, but Rayo Vallecano have struggled to create chances and score goals so far this season. They are under-performing their average xG created too – I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pretty quiet game here, and the Unders at 1.74 is worth a small investment.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RayLas
