FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews FREIBURG v WERDER BREMEN and CELTA VIGO v OSASUNA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FREIBURG V WERDER BREMEN
7.30pm After a very dramatic week from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with some massive sides crashing out of the Champions League, we’re back to our usual Friday night football slot! We have one fixture from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga, and while they might not be the most glamorous fixtures compared to what we have enjoyed this week, we do have two interesting markets. We have two home favourites, but there will be a lot of willing layers for both favourites. We kick off the evening in the Bundesliga as Freiburg host Werder Bremen – both of these sides are sitting higher in the table than they should be looking at their performance levels, and it’s hard to have a lot of confidence in either side. Freiburg come into the game as the favourites at 2.28 with Werder Bremen 3.45 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. Freiburg have a good chance of getting European football again next season – they come into this matchday sitting in fifth spot, only one point behind RB Leipzig in fourth too. Freiburg only have an average xG created of 1.32 however, which is a mid-table attacking figure in the Bundesliga.
It’s still better than RB Leipzig who sit above them though, so they could easily sneak into that fourth spot if results go their way over the next few weeks. Werder Bremen current sit in mid-table, and they are quite lucky to be there. They have the third worst attacking figure this season – only Holstein and St Pauli have created less. Both sides have the exact same defensive figure – an average xG conceded of 1.49, which is mid-table level in the Bundesliga. Obviously home advantage is important here – Werder Bremen create very little, and that drops away from home too. The difference in performance levels at home and away this season with Freiburg is the key here in my opinion – at home they create more than they concede and they are solid at the back. That goes away when they are on their travels, and they concede more than they create. I’m going to keep stakes small here, but I’m happy with a position on Freiburg at 2.28 – I would personally have them a few ticks shorter when you look at the under-lining numbers.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Freiburg to beat Werder Bremen at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FreWer
CELTA VIGO V OSASUNA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night football from Europe as Celta Vigo host Osasuna. We have another home favourite here, this time marginally odds on. Celta Vigo are trading 1.93 with Osasuna 4.5 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. Celta Vigo have flirted with a relegation battle at times over the last few seasons but they’ve always come good to finish mid-table – they are nowhere near relegation standard when you look at their under-lining numbers. Osasuna are sitting above them in the table for example, but they have a better attacking figure. Osasuna made the headlines in Spain last weekend when they held Real Madrid to a draw – that was a massive result in the title battle and gave Barcelona a chance to jump over Real Madrid on goal difference. Most of the headlines were around the red card for Jude Bellingham, but Osasuna held their own and battled well after going behind early. Osasuna might not have won many games lately, but they have been very tough to beat – they’ve only lost twice in their last eleven La Liga games, but eight of those have finished with a draw!
Celta Vigo haven’t put that kind of run together – they have actually been quite sloppy at the back. Their average xG conceded at 1.23 is a very respectable figure, but they have been conceding more than that. They’ve been scoring over their average xG too, so their games have been more entertaining than expected! Osasuna have clearly been a lot tougher to beat, and although Celta Vigo clearly perform better when they have home advantage – I still feel there is value in the home lay. I wouldn’t have Celta Vigo odds on here. At home, they do create more than they concede, whereas that’s not the case away from home. However, I just expect this game to be closer than the odds suggest and from a value point of view I’m happy with the home lay. A major worry is Osasuna have been creating very little away from home, and perhaps the 0-0 draw might be a good option but I’m going to keep the stakes small with a Celta Vigo lay.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Celta Vigo to beat Osasuna at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CelOsa
