FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Friday’s games between BOCHUM v DORTMUND and OSASUNA v REAL SOCIEDAD both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOCHUM V DORTMUND
7.30pm It’s been another fantastic week around Europe, but we are back to our usual Friday night football slot on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga. We have two important games too that will impact the title race and the top four race. We start the evening in the Bundesliga as Bochum host Dortmund. Whisper it, but we could have a major title race in the Bundesliga this season! After Bayern Munich lost last weekend, Dortmund now start this weekend with a one point lead at the top of the table. This is an absolutely must win game against a side in the relegation battle, even away from home, to keep the pressure on Bayern Munich. Bochum start the weekend sitting just outside the bottom three, only two points ahead of Stuttgart sitting in the relegation playoff spot. I wouldn’t be surprised if Stuttgart caught them to be honest. Bochum have been conceding chances for fun this season – their average xG conceded is a very high 2.1 and they aren’t creating many chances either as their average xG created is only 1.2. It’s not a surprise to see Dortmund trading as the odds on favourites – they should really be getting the job done here.
Dortmund are trading 1.58 at the time of writing with Bochum 6.0 and the draw is 4.8. It is remarkable that Dortmund have been having a better season without Erling Haaland, and they could actually be a little further ahead of Bayern Munich too. They have drawn games recently with Schalke and Stuttgart – both sitting in the bottom too. Both of those results came away from home, which might offer Bochum some hope here. To be honest though I can’t see past a Dortmund win here, and I couldn’t put anyone off the Dortmund bet at 1.58. However, Over 2.5 goals looks a cracking bet here at only five ticks shorter at 1.53. Bochum did create an xG of 3.15 last weekend while getting beaten 5-1 here against Wolfsburg in an exceptionally open game. Even the 1-0 win over RB Leipzig here had plenty of chances, Bochum were lucky because RB Leipzig finished that game with an xG of 2.09. This should be a very open game here, an early goal could really set off fireworks. Dortmund will attack and I can’t see Bochum sitting back at home – I’m really confident on Over 2.5 goals and the 1.53 is worth a Max Bet in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BocDor
OSASUNA V REAL SOCIEDAD
8pm Next we move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Osasuna host Real Sociedad. Both sides were in action midweek as Osasuna beat Cadiz 1-0 away from home and Real Sociedad drew 0-0 with Real Betis. Both sides will be delighted with those results – Osasuna were very lucky to win because they conceded an xG of 2.0, while Real Sociedad would have been very happy to keep their six point advantage over Real Betis in the top four race. As I said before that game, that was a must win game for Real Betis to get back into the mix for that fourth spot, especially with home advantage, and they couldn’t do it. Sociedad played out a pretty boring 0-0 and it was a case of job done. Osasuna are sitting in mid-table, and they basically can’t achieve anything in La Liga so I wouldn’t be surprised to see all their focus put on the Copa del Rey Final against Real Madrid which is coming up on the 6th of May. I can’t see them risking any player with a knock or anything like that at the moment so it’s definitely a trading angle to keep an eye on the team news here. We have a pretty open market at the moment. Real Sociedad are favourites at 2.4 while Osasuna are 3.55 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing.
Both sides have pretty much performed as expected as home and away this season – I wouldn’t say there is a positive or a negative there. Real Sociedad definitely come into the game in better form though, playing better football. Although Osasuna have won their last two games they have been very lucky – they have conceded much higher xG figures than they have created. Real Sociedad really grind out games and they are solid at the back too. Their average xG conceded this season is only 1.1, and I don’t expect them to play a very open game here either. Osasuna have been scoring goals from awkward positions, which is great but doesn’t last long, and I like Under 2.5 goals at 1.6 here. I couldn’t put anyone off that bet as I see a very cagey game. However, I’m going to back a Real Sociedad 1-0 win in the Correct Score market at 7.5. I really fancy Sociedad to grind out a win in a low scoring game, and 7.5 is definitely worth a bet in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Real Sociedad 1-0 Correct Score at 7.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/OsaSoc
