FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Friday’s matches between KOLN v HERTHA BERLIN and LAZIO v LECCE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
KOLN V HERTHA BERLIN
7.30pm It’s been a cracking week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with the Semi-Finals of the Champions League and Europa League, but we’re back into domestic action on Friday night as we approach the business end of the season. Teams are still fight for titles, European spots and avoiding relegation. We have two big games from the Bundesliga and Serie A tonight involving sides batting for European spots and relegation battles. We start the evening in the Bundesliga as Hertha Berlin desperately need a win as they sit bottom of the table. They travel to take on Koln who have only lost once in their last six games, and they did finish that game with a marginally higher xG figure than they conceded. This will be a very tough ask for Hertha Berlin, but they find themselves in a situation where they need to win every game now. They are nailed to the bottom of the table, three points away from Bochum and Stuttgart. Schalke winning three of their last four games really hasn’t helped Hertha and now they are five points away from them. It seems the relegation playoff place is the best outcome at the moment – that’s where they finished last season.
The major positive for Hertha here is that Koln have nothing to play for as the season draws to a close. They sit in mid-table, far enough away from the European spots for them to be out of reach. Nevertheless, Koln come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.9 at the time of writing with Hertha Berlin 4.0 and the draw is 3.95. Hertha did manage a massive win last weekend over Stuttgart and that has given them a chance – anything bar that win and they’ll already be 1.01 to go down. You have to look at that result from the point of view that Stuttgart are in the relegation battle as well, and Hertha have been playing at a very low level this season. Most of their issues have come away from home too – they’ve only managed five points from their 15 away games which is a terrible record. Even though it’s a must win game, it’s hard to support Hertha with that record. I’m happy to stay away from home match odds market here, Hertha have to chase a win and that should open things up. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.84 and this looks a nice position to start the evening.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/KolHer
LAZIO V LECCE
7.45pm Next we move over to Serie A to finish Friday night football as Lazio host Lecce. Unlike the Bundesliga game above, both sides have something to play for here and this is a huge game for both sides. Lazio have really come under pressure to hold onto their place in the top four recently – they’ve lost three of their last four games just at the wrong time, and two of those games came against Inter Milan and AC Milan who have been chasing them down. Obviously the 15 point deduction overturned for Juventus hasn’t helped either. Lecce are still in the relegation battle at the opposite end of the table – they start the weekend four points away from Spezia and that’s not enough cushion to relax. Verona have been excellent in recent weeks too – they seem to have good momentum so Lecce fans will be keeping an eye on the result from Spezia over the next few weeks! Although if you just looked at the table this might seem a straightforward win for Lazio, they haven’t created a lot this season and Lecce have actually played decent football away from home this season. They have 15 points from their 17 away games which isn’t bad for a side in a relegation battle – Hertha Berlin are a good example of how bad sides can be away from home with five points from 15 away games. Lazio simply can’t afford top drop anymore points in the top four race, so with the pressure on this should be a very interesting game.
Lazio come into the game trading as the odds on favourites, but there are plenty of punters willing to lay them. They currently trade 1.73, so they aren’t red-hot favourites closer to 1.5 for example, while Lecce trade 6.2 and the draw is 3.75. It’s easy to understand the Lazio price when you look at their under-lining numbers. They have been massively over-performing this season to be sitting in the top four. Their average xG created is only 1.3 for example and they are conceding an average of 1.2. Their actual goals scored average is 1.5 and their actual conceded is 0.8. That’s quite the difference, and a lot of points. The xG table puts them in mid-table for example. Lecce are a very average side, but they are very strong at the back. Their average xG conceded is only 1.1 this season – this costs them going forward because they score less than a goal per game and their average xG is only 1.0. Lazio may well grind out a win, but the 1.73 is too short in my opinion. This game screams lack of chances and goals, and I really like Under 2.5 goals at 1.68.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazLec
