FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Friday’s games between DORTMUND v HEIDENHEIM and ROMA v AC MILAN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V HEIDENHEIM
7.30pm We have fantastic Friday night football from Europe this week on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! All eyes will be on the first major clash in Serie A this season as Roma host AC Milan, but we start the evening in the Bundesliga with Dortmund in action as they host new boys Heidenheim. We all watched on last season as Dortmund threw away a golden opportunity to end their wait for a Bundesliga title, and you have to wonder will they get as close again for the next few seasons. It’s hard to see Bayern being so under par again to be honest. Dortmund have already dropped points this season too; they could only manage a draw away to Bochum last weekend which was a very disappointing result considering Bochum were in the relegation battle last season. Bochum also took points off Dortmund on the run-in last season so they have proven to be quite the thorn for Dortmund! Heidenheim topped the Bundesliga 2 table last season but the top three sides all finished within one point of each other. They have lost their opening two games, and they are going to struggle to stay up this season.
The market is confident on a Dortmund win here. The home win is trading as short as 1.25 at the time of writing, and if you fancy a shock the Heidenheim win is 12.5 while the draw is 7.6. Obviously there is a gulf in class here between the sides, Heidenheim have been playing at a lower level and will take time to adjust. However, Dortmund’s first two performances this season have been poor. Both times they conceded a higher xG figure than they created – that would definitely put me off backing them to cover the handicap or thinking they’re going to score plenty of goals here. I would expect Heidenheim to play a very cagey fashion and put XI men behind the ball; aim for a draw which would be a cracking result here in fairness. The market is expect goals with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.39 but I’m going to opt for a small bet on Unders just because Dortmund have struggled to create many chances. I’m keen to keep stakes small as I fully accept Heidenheim have conceded high xG figures, but they can frustrate Dortmund here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 3.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorHei
ROMA V AC MILAN
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish the evening with an absolute cracker as Roma host AC Milan! This is the first real big clash in Serie A this season, and it will definitely be interesting to see who comes out on top. Although AC Milan finished in the top four last season, you’d have to say they struggled at times and they also benefitted from the Juventus points deduction too. Roma were also in the top four race for a time, but they finished the season terribly with much of their focus on the Europa League; which they eventually lost out on in a penalty shootout Final against Sevilla. AC Milan have started the season with a 100% record in their two games, but Roma are under immense pressure already. They opened their season with a 2-2 draw away to Salernitana and then lost last weekend away to Verona. Salernitana weren’t in the relegation battle last season but they weren’t far off while Verona were slap-bang in the relegation battle – they even had to play a relegation playoff. Obviously Roma will point to their xG figures and say that they are playing good football, the results will come, but it’s hardly a good start to the season. They come into this clash under pressure – as always it’s interesting to see how Mourinho deals with these situations!
We have an exceptionally open betting heat, and Roma come into the game as the favourites at the time of writing. There isn’t much in it as there’s less than ten ticks between the sides – Roma are trading 2.78 with AC Milan 2.86 and draw is 3.2. It’s easy to see why we have quite an even market; Roma have home advantage and these sides have a very even record. They are pretty much in the same bracket class wise too. Obviously Roma’s start is a worry, but they have been creating chances. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because I really fancy Over 2.5 goals at 2.31 or bigger. I feel this is cracking value – the market is expecting a classic cagey Serie A affair, but these two rarely have one. 61% of their meetings have had Over 2.5 goals, but more recently we’ve had plenty of goals. Over 2.5 goals has landed in five of the last six meetings – Both Teams To Score has also collected in all of those six fixtures and I couldn’t put anyone off that at 1.99 either. For me though it’s Overs at a very appealing price.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.31 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomMil
