FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews KOLN v WERDER BREMEN and INTER MILAN v SALERNITANA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
KOLN V WERDER BREMEN
7.30pm After a massive week on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with the knockout stages starting for the Champions League and Europa League, Friday night football comes from the Bundesliga and Serie A! We kick off the evening in the Bundesliga as Koln host Werder Bremen. We have a very open betting heat with Koln coming into the game as the favourites with home advantage. The home win is trading 2.63 with Werder Bremen 2.9 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. We have two pretty average sides here, but Werder Bremen have been able to grind out enough results to sit in mid-table while that hasn’t been the case for Koln. They are sitting in the relegation playoff spot to start this matchday and it’s looking increasingly likely that the bottom three in the Bundesliga look set in stone. They are becoming adrift – Koln are five points away from Union Berlin with Mainz and Darmstadt a further four points back from Koln. Werder Bremen might sit in mid-table, but their under-lining numbers are very poor. They recently managed to beat Bayern Munich away from home, which is quite remarkable really.
To be honest, I thought Werder Bremen would go down this season. However, they have only lost once in their last eight Bundesliga games. Considering they have the joint-worst average xG created, that run is very surprising! Not only have they been poor going forward, they’ve also been poor at the back – their average xG conceded 1.54 which is an obvious problem when you are creating an average of less than 1.0! Koln have been conceding very similar levels, but they have been much better going forward. Their problem is clearly in front of goal and converting their chances – they have scored the least amount of goals in the Bundesliga this season but they are creating the chances of a mid-table side. It’s not a surprise that we have a very open market, and I feel the draw is the best value here at 3.5. Everything points to a very close game here between two average sides; I know Koln have struggled to score goals but home advantage will help and Werder Bremen have been exceptionally lucky lately – eventually that low xG created will catch up with them. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0!
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/KolWer
INTER MILAN V SALERNITANA
8pm We move over to Serie A to finish Friday night football. It’s top v bottom as Inter Milan host Salernitana. It’s already been a great week for Inter Milan and they haven’t even had to kick a ball – after beating Roma 4-2 on Saturday and going seven points clear at the top of the table, Juventus failed to close the gap as they lost to Udinese at home on Monday night. Not only do Inter have a seven point advantage now, they still have their game in hand. Of course, anyone who is a fan of xG figures probably saw this coming – there has been a big difference in performance level between Inter Milan and Juventus this season, and it felt inevitable Inter would start to put some distance between themselves and the rest. I would suggest that is the title race wrapped up, even this far out. Inter will be fully expected to win this game against Salernitana who sit rock bottom of Serie A. Salernitana have only managed 13 points from their 24 games and they are adrift at the bottom of the table; I can’t see them getting back into the mix for staying up never mind actually staying up – they are five points away from Cagliari in 19th.
Inter come into the game as the red-hot favourites. They are trading as short as 1.19 at the time of writing which is one of the shortest prices around Europe this weekend. If you fancy a massive shock, and it really would be a massive shock, then Salernitana are trading 19.5 with the draw 8.8 at the time of writing. It’s very hard to see past an Inter win here, indeed I feel this is a case of how many goals can they score rather than will they win, so we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. Salernitana have the worst attacking figure in Serie A this season, so it’s no surprise to see them bottom of the table. They’re creating an average xG of only 0.90, and scoring less than that too. Away from home that figures drops to only 0.73 which is very poor. Inter have an average xG conceded of 1.08 which is the best defensive figure in Serie A this season; I like them to keep a clean sheet here on the way to winning. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.76 and that looks cracking value! It’s worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntSal
