BUNDESLIGA / LA LIGA PREVIEW: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews Friday’s games between STUTTGART v MAINZ and REAL VALLADOLID v HUESCA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
STUTTGART V MAINZ
7.30pm We’ve had a lot of domestic Cup action in Europe recently, but Friday Night Football returns with our usual one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga! We start the evening with Stuttgart hosting Mainz. Stuttgart are my best bet tonight at 1.76 as they have been playing much better football than Mainz and have a lot going in their favour here. Mainz actually produced a shock win last weekend with a 3-2 win over RB Leipzig – that came from nowhere as they have been very poor this season and sit in second last. It was only their second win of the season. They recently drew 1-1 with Dortmund too, but Dortmund battered them on xG and should have won.
Stuttgart come here off the back of two losses, but if you look at the xG figures you can see they are playing good football. They were exceptionally unlucky last weekend to lose 2-1 to Freiburg – ending the game with an xG of 2.94 to 1.17. They lost 3-0 to Arminia Bielefeld a couple of days before that too, not scoring but finishing the game with an xG of 1.51. They are creating the chances – they just need to take them. Mainz consistently give away a host of chances and should be ideal for Stuttgart to take advantage. The 1.76 looks a cracking bet on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Stuttgart to beat Mainz at 1.76 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQStuMai
REAL VALLADOLID V HUESCA
8pm Real Valladolid host Huesca in La Liga for the second game this evening! This is a massive game at the bottom of the table for both sides. Huesca are nailed to the bottom of the table, four points off 19th position and a further two points from safely. However they haven’t played too badly this season – they have just had too many draws – they’ve drawn 10 of their 20 games! Valladolid won’t be comfortable in 16th position as they are only three points ahead of 19th – there isn’t much in it at all and a win here for either side would be massive. A Huesca win would put them back into the mix and a Valladolid win would give them a good cushion away from the bottom three.
I expect a very close game here with neither side creating a lot of chances, from that point of view Valladolid look a little short at their current 2.48. While that is a tempting lay, this game screams a lack of goals and I can’t get away from under 2.5 goals at 1.61. I was expecting to see a price close to 1.45 looking at the stats and I’m very surprised to see it trading over 1.6. Perhaps there’s plenty of layers looking at the amount of goals in Valladolid’s recent games, but they don’t create the xG figures to back that up and Huesca play a very tight game – I’d expect them to be negative here and wait for Valladolid to make a mistake. I’m a big fan of unders here, and wouldn’t put anyone off 0-0 in the Correct Score market either.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.61 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQValHue
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