FRIDAY NIGHT IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Friday’s Bundesliga and La Liga games between MAINZ v AUGSBURG and OSASUNA v GRANADA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

MAINZ V AUGSBURG

7.30pm After a fantastic week of Champions League and Europa League action, we return to our usual Friday night football slot on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! with one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga! We start in the Bundesliga with Mainz hosting Augsburg – you’d have to expect a very close game here. Both sides finished beside each other in the table last season with only three points between them, both they have had different starts to this season. Mainz started off on fire, but they arrive into this fixture now off the back of three losses while Augsburg are feeling the heat currently in the relegation Playoff spot. I have to say I didn’t expect to see Mainz odds on when clicking into the market. They look a little short to me at 1.78.

I can understand why Mainz are favourites, they have the better results this season, but I’d wouldn’t have them as short as 1.78. When you look a little deeper and get into the xG figures, there isn’t much in this one. Mainz have been consistent in their xG figures – apart from the Greuther Furth game their highest xG is 1.41 at home to Union Berlin – they actually don’t create a huge amount of chances but to their credit they don’t give away huge either. Obviously they had an impressive game against Greuther Furth, but they are nailed to the bottom without a win yet. Augsburg can be very hit-and-miss, but they do create more than Mainz when they play well – the problem is they aren’t as consistent as Mainz, but I still feel there is value in the Mainz lay. Augsburg might appreciate the step down in class and can create more, Mainz are worth a small lay.

The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Mainz to beat Augsburg at 1.78 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMinAug

OSASUNA V GRANADA

8pm Next we move over to La Liga for another very interesting market. Osasuna host Granada and if you look at the table you will think this is a straightforward win for the home side! Osasuna start this weekend sitting up in 5th place and I’m sure their fans are loving life at the moment, while Granada are under pressure at the moment – they sit just outside the bottom three with only six points from eight games. Osasuna have kept their games very tight in general this season, but they have had some high scorers. I feel they generally deserve their place in 5th – they have had some lucky results and some unlucky results – for example they created an xG of 2.87 to 0.10 in a 0-0 draw with Celta Vigo but they have won games where they conceded an xG of 4.03 against Mallorca – the luck swings throughout the season but in general they have been holding their own.

Granada recorded one of the most lucky results at the start of the month with a 1-0 win over Sevilla. They created an xG of 0.07 and conceded 1.84 in the 1-0 win! When you look at their xG figures you can see where their issues are – they just aren’t creating chances. Their xG figures this season read 0.33, 0.98, 0.78, 0.88, 0.76, 1.57, 0.78 and 0.07. That’s poor in anyone’s book, and it looks like they’ll be in a relegation battle this evening. I know Osasuna aren’t world beaters but they must be full of confidence after their start to the season and they have been playing decent football. I would have them much shorter than their current 1.87, especially when you compare the value to the Mainz price in the Bundesliga for example, and I have to have a Max Bet on Osasuna here. I can only see one way traffic.

The Ultra Says:
Five points win Osasuna to beat Granada at 1.87 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQOsaGra