FRIDAY IN EUROPE: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews Friday’s matches between HERTHA BERLIN v UNION BERLIN and ATHLETIC BILBAO v CELTA VIGO both with recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
HERTHA BERLIN V UNION BERLIN
7.30pm The Berlin Derby kicks off the action from Europe on Friday night and we should have a cracking game. We have an interesting market on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, with Hertha clear favourites. Union have had a great start to the season, and I feel that Hertha shouldn’t be as short as 2.44. It’s early days in the Bundesliga, but Union are already eight points ahead of Hertha and they are unbeaten in their last eight since losing to Augsburg in a close game in their first game of the season. They have been creating some good chances and this has been reflected in front of goal – they’ve scored 13 in their last four.
You could say Hertha have had a very up-and-down season. They’ve produced some impressive performances but they leak too many goals for me. You can see by looking at their xG that although they can create decent chances, they also give them away. I feel there’s a lot of value in the Hertha lay here at 2.44 with Union playing some good football. It’s actually tempting to go for the Union win, but 2.44 is way too short for me and has to be laid.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Hertha Berlin to beat Union Berlin at 2.44 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQHerBer
ATHLETIC BILBAO V CELTA VIGO
8pm We end the evening in La Liga with Athletic Bilbao hosting Celta Vigo. Every game is big for the visitors at the moment as they sit in the bottom three. They are bang in touch with the rest but they need to keep collecting points. Looking at their xG, I don’t think there’s much wrong with the attacking side of things with Celta Vigo. You might even say that their xG figures going forward are impressive! The issues are coming at the other end of the pitch however, and that’s why they are in the bottom three. You have to admit though their games are generally great viewing, end-to-end action!
Celta Vigo created an xG of 5.07 last weekend against Granada – one of the more impressive xG’s I’ve seen this season! I’m very surprised over 2.5 goals is odds against here, and I’m a big fan of backing 2.36. Celta Vigo games have been packed with chances in very open and end-to-end games, and I don’t think Athletic Bilbao will spoil that looking at their xG figures. Perhaps they will try make the game a little tighter knowing they will get chances against Celta Vigo, but Athletic Bilbao have had plenty of chances at both ends of the pitch in their recent games too. I’m very surprised by the odds here, I’d have overs odds on. It’s not quite a max bet, but it’s a bet I like a lot.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.36 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAthCel
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