FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Friday’s games between BAYERN MUNICH v BAYER LEVERKUSEN and ATHLETIC BILBAO v ALMERIA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V BAYER LEVERKUSEN
7.30pm After an intriguing, and better than usual, International break – domestic football is back! We are back with a bang on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Friday night! We have our usual Friday night fixture list in Europe of one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga, but we kick it off with a cracker this week as Bayern Munich host Bayer Leverkusen. It seems we might have a more interesting than usual title race in Germany this season – but it is still early days of course so we won’t get too excited! However, Bayern have been dropping point left, right and centre this season. They start the weekend sitting down in fifth, five points behind league leaders Union Berlin. Dortmund are also three points ahead of them, and while it’s highly likely that Bayern will still lift the title – it does makes things a little interesting for the time being! The International break probably came at a good time for Bayern; I know all of their star players would have been busy with their national teams but it would have given management a chance to sort some things out. It’s been very unlike Bayern to find themselves in this situation. To be fair to Bayern, they have still be creating good xG figures – perhaps this has highlighted how much they miss Lewandowski to find the net!
Bayern aren’t the only side to come into this game after a bad start to the season. Remarkably, Bayer Leverkusen find themselves down in 15th place with just five points from their seven games. Just one place outside the relegation playoff spot, and they have a huge amount of work to do to get back into the running for the top four. Especially with the progress Union Berlin have made – I have to say I find the drop off from some Bundesliga clubs after a good season amazing! RB Leipzig, Gladbach, Wolfsburg to name a few in recent years. Although Bayern aren’t scoring as many goals, they have been creating more or less the same amount of chances. What is worrying though from a performance point of view is that they are conceding more chances. They conceded an xG of 2.12 to Augsburg before the International break, and then the 2-0 win over Barcelona might look good on paper but they conceded an xG of 2.31. The market is fully expecting goals here with Over 2.5 goals trading in the low 1.3’s, however Both Teams To Score looks cracking value at 1.57. As I said, Bayern have been conceding enough chances to see Leverkusen find the net at some stage. I know Leverkusen haven’t been firing this season, but you don’t become a bad side overnight after a cracking season last season.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayBay
ATHLETIC BILBAO V ALMERIA
8pm Next we move to La Liga for a slightly less glamorous fixture as Athletic Bilbao host La Liga new boys Almeria. The home side come into this game as heavy favourites after a very positive start to the season. They currently sit in the top four at the moment with 13 points from their opening six games – they’ve only been beaten once and you never know, with Sevilla starting the season so poorly a lot of sides will be eyeing up that fourth spot for Champions League football. Athletic Bilbao are probably not good enough over the course of the season for that fourth spot, but their fans can dream for the moment anyway. Almeria were always going to struggle in La Liga this season, and their sole aim will be staying up. Obviously they are going to have to work very hard to achieve that, and they are already sitting towards the bottom of the table. They start the weekend down in 16th with just four points from six games. They are lucky in the sense that we do have about five or six very average sides fighting to stay up down there – it does make for an exciting relegation battle! Apart from the Sevilla win which came from nowhere, and probably also highlighted how poorly Sevilla started the season, Almeria have been pretty average and you’d have to worry about them this season.
On paper you would say Almeria lost three tight games before the International break, and granted the Mallorca (another side likely in the relegation fight) game was tight, however they conceded an xG of 2.5 against Osasuna and then 2.12 against Real Valladolid. Athletic Bilbao have benefited from a relatively easy fixture list at the start of the season because they have avoided all the top clubs. That has allowed them to build confidence, and their performances have been top notch. They were unlucky to lose to Espanyol in a very even game too, and then they had to settle for a 0-0 draw with Mallroca but finished the game with an xG of 2.02. You can see xG figures like that and 3.27, 2.94, 3.17 in their games at the start of the season! Given the amount of chances Almeria have been conceding, I feel Bilbao can cover the Handicap here. The 2.23 on Bilbao -1.5 goals looks cracking value here and I’m very happy to avail of those odds.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Athletic Bilbao -1.5 goals to beat Almeria at 2.23 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AthAlm
