FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Friday’s matches between HOFFENHEIM v WERDER BREMEN and OSASUNA v VALENCIA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
HOFFENHEIM V WERDER BREMEN
7.30pm It’s been an intense week around Europe in the Champions League and Europa League, but we return to our usual Friday night football slot on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga! I have to say it’s been a great week, and I’m already looking forward to the Champions League next week. Until then though we have a huge weekend to enjoy in Europe, and we kick it off in the Bundesliga with Hoffenheim hosting Werder Bremen. Hoffenheim would have been disappointed with their 1-1 draw last weekend but they stayed in the top five. They are actually only three points behind league leaders Union Berlin – I felt we might get an exciting title race before last weekend, but then Union Berlin and Dortmund lost, and Bayern have already closed the gap. You know Bayern will win the title, but I felt it might have got a little close – just when you think the title race is “on” it looks easy for Bayern again! Werder Bremen came back up to the Bundesliga after finishing second in the Bundesliga 2 last season, and you’d have to say that they will be delighted with their start. They sit in 8th with 12 points from their opening eight games – you can’t really ask for more than that.
Schalke finished ahead of Werder Bremen last year to win the Bundesliga 2, and they are already in the relegation battle towards the bottom of the table. Werder Bremen can come here full of confidence, and how could they not after a 5-1 win over Gladbach last weekend! The Werder Bremen xG figures this season have actually been very impressive – they are creating close to two goals per game on average, and while they are conceding an xG of 1.5 it’s clear that they want to play an open game. They are an exciting team to watch anyway, and we should see plenty of chances at both ends here. Hoffenheim also have reasonably high stats – their average xG is 1.6 which is reasonable, and they are also conceding on average xG of over 1 per game. I feel we’ll see a close game here, and I was surprised to see Hoffenheim trading as short as 1.99 in the match odds market. I couldn’t put anyone off laying the home win here because Werder Bremen have played nice football this season. However, I can’t get away from Over 2.5 goals here at 1.5 – I expected to see it trading close to 1.4 looking at the stats, and I can only see a very open game with plenty of goals. It’s a confident bet to start the weekend.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/HofWer
OSASUNA V VALENCIA
8pm We move to La Liga to finish the evening as Osasuna host Valencia. This should be an interesting fixture, and a very competitive one too. The profile of both sides is very similar and there’s only three points between them at the moment. Indeed, they finished right beside each other last season with only one point between them – Valencia got the better of the argument! Osasuna shook up La Liga at the weekend when they managed to hold Real Madrid to a 1-1 draw – they conceded an xG of 2.87 and were very lucky to actually get a draw, but credit to them they grinded out a result. It’s basically all these mid-table sides can do against the top La Liga sides. That put Barcelona top although they are level on points with Real Madrid – it basically gave us the perfect set-up heading into El Clasico which is not far away – mark down Sunday the 16th of October in your calendar for that! Both sides here have played good football this season. If you look at the Osasuna xG figures, they should be scoring nearly double what they have managed – they are scoring an average of 1.1 but their xG is actually 1.9. Creating nearly two goals a game is very impressive, especially when you are only conceding an average of 1. To be fair to Valencia their stats aren’t far away – their average xG going forward is 1.7 and they have only conceded an average xG of 1 at the back. Pretty much everything points to a very close game here.
Osasuna come into the game as favourites, as they should be given they have home advantage, but it’s hard to make the case for backing them at odds of 2.34. I have to say I expect a closer game than those odds reflect, and from a value point of view I couldn’t put anyone off the Osasuna lay. Indeed, it’s going to be hard to find a better value bet in the market. We have to look at the goals market here though – just because both sides look so similar. Under 2.5 goals is the favourite at 1.7 and you do get the feeling that we’ll see a cagey game here. I know both sides have been creating good chances, but they also look rock solid at the back. I have a lot of options here for my best bet; the Osasuna lay, Under 2.5 goals and possibly even 0-0 in the Correct Score market. I do feel we’ll get a very close game here, and on balance I’m going to top for the Osasuna lay – I just feel it’s a nice position to be in having the Valencia win and the draw on our side, and the 2.34 does look too short.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Osasuna to beat Valencia at 2.34 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/OsaVal
