FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Friday’s matches between SCHALKE v HOFFENHEIM and RAYO VALLECANO v GETAFE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SCHALKE V HOFFENHEIM
7.30pm It’s been another dramatic week around Europe with some huge Champions League ties, but we get back to domestic league action on Friday night. We have our usual slot on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga! We start the action in the Bundesliga with Schalke hosting Hoffenheim. Long-term readers will remember we did very well betting against Schalke the year they got relegated – after topping the Bundesliga 2 last season they are back for more, and the early signs suggest that they have improved but they are still very average. It’s hard to see them not being involved in a relegation battle at some stage and even go back down as well – especially after losing 4-0 last weekend. When they finished rock bottom of the Bundesliga in 2020/21, their xG figures were terrible. This season hasn’t seen that – they have already put in one or two decent performances. They were unlucky to lose here against Augsburg when they returned from the International break – there was plenty of action in the 3-2 defeat, but they did finish with a higher xG figure. They also created an xG of 2.34 in the 1-1 draw away to Stuttgart and to be honest they haven’t really put in a woeful performance at home this season. Obviously they lost 6-1 to Union Berlin, but Union were just crazy hot in front of goal that day scoring from all sorts of positions – Schalke actually finished with a higher xG figure!
Indeed, in all four home games this Bundesliga season Schalke have finished with a higher xG figure. OK, they are still a limited team and will most likely be trying to stay up this season but you have to say that they have improved. It will be interesting to see how they perform here – Hoffenheim have started the season well and have shown improvement over the last few seasons. Perhaps they can challenge for a European spot, but we do have quite a way to go and that loss last weekend was probably the start of the slip down the table. The early signs are promising though, especially with the likes of Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig struggling at the start of the season. Their away performances are a little worry coming into this game – away from home they have created xG figures of 0.08, 1.02, 0.42 and 1.53. Nothing to write home about and with Schalke seemingly playing well at home, I feel Hoffenheim are worth a small lay at the odds. I just feel we’ll see a closer game here than the odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Hoffenheim to beat Schalke at 2.03 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SchHof
RAYO VALLECANO V GETAFE
8pm Next we move over to La Liga as Rayo Vallecano host Getafe. This is a the start of a massive weekend in La Liga with El Clasico on Sunday afternoon! Getafe hosted Real Madrid last weekend, and didn’t play too badly but lost 1-0. There’s no shame in losing 1-0 to Real Madrid though. Rayo Vallecano were involved in one of the surprise results of the season when they held Barcelona to a 0-0 draw on the opening weekend – Barcelona started that fixture sitting in the 1.2’s! When I look at the stats here, it’s hard not to expect a very close game. I expected to see an open market when checking the odds but I was surprised to see Rayo Vallecano trading as short as 2.1. I can understand that they should be favourites with home advantage, but 2.1 feels a little too short for me. It’s going to be hard to get away from that as my best bet here to be honest, but let’s explore all options. Looking at the stats from both sides here it’s obvious that both are struggling at the back – on average they are both conceding close to two goals per game – Rayo Vallecano are actually conceding a higher xG than Getafe, but Getafe have given away a lot of sloppy goals this season. Both sides also have very similar stats going forward ranging between 1 and 1.3 on average. Looking at those stats you’d expect both sides to struggle this season, but I don’t see either being bad enough to be involved in the relegation battle. There’s plenty of limited sides in La Liga this season.
I’m not going to read too much into the Getafe game against Real Madrid last week. The opposition is just so different here. I would be more worried about Getafe losing 3-1 away to Girona and then 5-1 away to Valencia this season. They did manage a 2-0 win away to Osasuna, but they also conceded a higher xG figure than they created. They are all worrying performances, especially when you consider that Rayo Vallecano tend to play better at home compare to away – they have had a very up-and-down season so far in the sense that they went win/loss for so long, but at home their performances have been OK. That being said – in the wins here against Valencia and Elche both times they conceded a higher xG figure than they created. Obviously we have two very average sides here and they both clearly have their flaws. I do feel we’ll see a closer game than the odds suggest with Rayo Vallecano being so short, but I’m going to have a small bet on the draw at 3.3. The Rayo Vallecano lay is a very tempting play, but I feel the draw option offers the most value here. This should be a close game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RayGet
