FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Friday’s games between GLADBACH v STUTTGART and GIRONA v ATHLETIC BILBAO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GLADBACH V STUTTGART
7.30pm The European fixtures just keep coming as we race towards the World Cup! It’s going to be a very busy ten days with the domestic leagues squeezing in as many fixtures as possible, and we kick off another hectic weekend with our usual Friday night slot on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga. We’ve had a dramatic week with Champions League and Europa League action, and while Friday night isn’t the most glamorous fixtures of the weekend, we do have two very interesting markets to study. We start the evening in the Bundesliga with Gladbach hosting Stuttgart. After finishing in the top four in 2019/20, Gladbach have been in steady decline – they finished in 8th and 10th the two season after, and this season they are likely to finish in or around the same position – probably unlikely to be as high as 8th! They are “only” five points ahead of Stuttgart who are in the relegation battle. They start the weekend sitting just outside the bottom three, and they’ll be expected to drop down into that soon given Bayer Leverkusen are sitting below them – what a terrible season it has been for them! Given Stuttgart only got out of the bottom three on the final day last season, and they are highly likely to be involved again this season it’s no surprise to see Gladbach as favourites here.
Given the low level that Gladbach have been playing at this season however, I was surprised to see them trading as short as 2.14 when I clicked into the market. It wouldn’t be a very confident bet because you have to rely on Stuttgart getting a result, but the 2.14 does stand out as a value lay in my opinion. Stuttgart have actually been playing better than their results this season – for example they are creating and conceding an average xG of 1.5 per game this season – but they are just scoring less than they should (1.3) and conceding more (1.8) which means they are where they are in the table. Conceding an average of 1.5 per game on average is still quite high but they are a limited side in a high scoring league. Gladbach are actually conceding more chances – their average xG conceded is 1.6 but they are creating more at 1.7. Basically in a nutshell, there isn’t much between the sides here. Gladbach have home advantage so they should be favourites, but not as short as 2.14 in my opinion and I’m happy with the home lay, although keep staking reasonably limited.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Gladbach to beat Stuttgart at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GlaStu
GIRONA V ATHLETIC BILBAO
8pm Next we move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Girona host Athletic Bilbao. Again, not the most glamorous La Liga fixture this weekend but an interesting market nevertheless. Athletic Bilbao will be expected to win here, but Girona have got results in three of their last four games now and picked up a draw away to Real Madrid at the weekend! Both sides actually recorded huge results last weekend as Athletic Bilbao managed a 1-0 win over Villarreal. With Sevilla struggling so badly this season and highly likely to miss out on a top four finish, that fourth spot has definitely opened up. You’d expect that Athletic Bilbao will come up short, but for the moment they are really in the mix with Real Betis and Real Sociedad. Winning games like that against Villarreal are vital to keep their dreams alive – even if they miss out on Champions League football though, the Europa League spots will open up too. Emery has left Villarreal, and if one of the top three win the Copa there will be more European spots to go around too. Girona won’t be even thinking of European football though – their sole aim this season will be staying in La Liga. They have had a difficult start, but they start the weekend sitting just outside the bottom three. Probably bad news for them is Sevilla are sitting behind them in 18th and you’d have to expect that to change, but that point Girona grinded out against Real Madrid last weekend is vital – results like that really make a difference over the season because that point is a compete bonus. In fairness to Girona, the xG table does move them up a little – it’s not like they have been woeful this season. For example, the xG table leaves Sevilla where they are which really highlights what a bad season they are having!
Girona have very similar stats to Stuttgart in the Bundesliga tonight – they are conceding an average xG of 1.6 per game and creating 1.5. Again, 1.6 is quite high but they play at a low level is it’s unreasonable to expect very good figures here. Athletic Bilbao have much better figures – the ones you’re likely to expect for a team competing for the European spots – they are creating an average xG of 2.0 and conceding an average of 0.9. Impressive stats, and with both sides creating some decent chances we could see goals here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 2.08 and that looks a nice option here. Although Girona’s recent games have been reasonably low scoring – their three draws finished 1-1 for example – however when you look at the xG figures you can see they have been very open games. Bilbao have saw Over 2.5 goals land in all bar one of their La Liga away games this season, and that was a 1-1 with Sevilla when they created an xG of 2.09 and we should have had more goals! Again, not going mad on stakes here but Over 2.5 goals looks a nice position.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GirAth
