FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Friday’s games between MAINZ v GLADBACH and ELCHE v REAL BETIS both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MAINZ V GLADBACH
7.30pm It’s been another dramatic week around Europe, and we kick off another weekend with our usual Friday night football slot on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga. We’ve had Friday night Serie A action for a few weeks, but we do have an interesting market in the Bundesliga and that’s where we start as Mainz host Gladbach. Both sides had very entertaining games last weekend with Mainz winning 3-2 against Bayer Leverkusen and Gladbach producing the weekends biggest surprise with a 3-2 win over Bayern Munich. That win has definitely opened up the title race – I still feel we all expect Bayern to win easily but it would be nice to see some drama in the Bundesliga title race for once. Mainz come into this game as the favourites trading at 2.18, but that looks a little short to me. I expect a very close game here between two pretty evenly matched sides. I can understand why Mainz are the favourites – they had an incredible home record last season, but that hasn’t been the case this season. They have only collected 13 points from their ten home games this season which actually puts them towards the bottom of the home form table. I know they’ve played once less game than the sides just above them, but it still shows they haven’t been firing here like last season.
Of course, there are worries with the Mainz lay. The main one is the Gladbach away form – they’ve only managed seven points from their ten away games which puts them towards the bottom of the away form table. They have also been poor in two of their last three away games – they finished with xG figures of just 0.34 away to Augsburg and 0.41 away to Hertha Berlin either side of a 4-1 win at Hoffenheim. They do give away a host of chances, but the one thing you have to say about Gladbach is that they are entertaining. They concede an average xG of 1.7 and create 1.5 – Mainz have very similar figures because they concede an average of 1.6 and create the same figure as Gladbach. Both sides have the same number of points this season, and while I expect Gladbach to make the 2.18 look short on Mainz, the bet that stands out here is Over 2.5 goals at 1.72. I expected to see Overs trading close to 1.5 looking at the stats – I don’t think either side knows how to play a cagey game, and we’ll see a very end-to-end game here. I couldn’t put anyone off the Mainz lay from a value point of view, but the 1.72 on Over 2.5 goals is worthy of a Max Bet in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MaiGla
ELCHE V REAL BETIS
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Elche host Real Betis. Elche fans haven’t had much to cheer this season, indeed they basically haven’t had anything to cheer – they’ve only managed one win all season in La Liga and that came recently! However, their last two home games have been good! They finished with an xG of 3.11 in the 3-1 win over Villarreal and although they lost 1-0 to Espanyol they finished that game with an xG of 1.86 which was more than they conceded too. Obviously Elche have been very poor this season, and they sit nailed to the bottom of the table – but at the same time you could say this is the worst time to play them for Real Betis looking at their last two home performances. It’s not an ideal situation for Real Betis who are pushing for a top four spot this season and coming up short at the moment. You would have thought with Sevilla dropping out that they had an excellent chance given how strong they were last season, but they have dropped plenty of points this season and Real Sociedad show no sign of stopping. Real Betis start the weekend sitting four points behind Atletico Madrid and six behind Real Sociedad – they have work to do, and they basically can’t afford to drop points against the side sitting bottom of the table.
With Elche’s last two home performances, Real Betis come into this game trading odds against – they are trading 2.08 at the time of writing, and I’m sure they’ll be a popular bet because they aren’t odds on. I have to say, I’m finding it very difficult to get away from Real Betis here at 2.08. They have a decent away record, and while I fully take on board that Elche’s last two home games have been impressive their stats over all this season are very poor. They are conceding an average xG of 2.4 this season which is incredibly high. If they give those kind of chances to a club like Real Betis they will surely get punished. Real Betis have been sloppy at the back this season, so we could see plenty of goals here and that definitely brings Over 2.5 goals at 2.22 into focus, but I feel the 2.08 is too big to ignore. I will just reduce stakes given the recent Elche performances, but they weren’t enough to stop me backing Betis here at good odds.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Real Betis to beat Elche at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ElcBet
